随着我国房地产业迅速发展，目前住宅存量已达到了相当大的规模，国家对住 宅市场的调控越来越严格，商业地产投资将成为新的发展机遇。为了迎接未来全球 都市圈引领的竞争，中国开始实施以超大城市为带动的都市圈和城市群发展战略， 经济综合实力始终排名第一的长江三角洲城市群再一次迎来了投资者的关注，其 “高质量”和“区域一体化”让投资者们看到了巨大的商业价值和发展机遇。大量 的投资者把目光锁定在上海、苏州、杭州、南京、无锡、宁波这样的核心城市，那 么长江三角洲城市群的其他城市是否拥有同样的商业价值？如何选择投资城市？这 是值得研究的问题。 鉴于较少专家学者研究非一线城市商业地产投资环境，故本文针对长江三角洲 城市群内的20个非一线城市进行商业地产投资环境的研究，旨在为商业地产投资者 选择合适的非一线投资城市标的、以及为营造优质城市投资环境提出合理建议。 商业地产投资具有多样性、专业性和高风险性等特点，其发展速度、投资布局、 品牌竞争力、产品品质和功能等会受到投资环境的影响。在对商业地产投资环境进 行综合评价时，涉及到众多的相关因素，包括经济因素、房地产市场因素、基础设 施因素、生态因素和社会因素五大类，本文构建了涵盖城市GDP增速、社会消费品 零售总额、房地产开发投资额、人口数量、城市绿化面积、高铁经过线路、空气质 量达到及好于二级的天数等31个子指标的投资环境评价体系，采用因子分析法，从 变量群中提取共性因子后进行统计分析，为商业地产投资构建合理的综合投资评价 模型。 通过对长三角非一线城市的投资环境评价发现，经济发展对商业地产投资环境 的影响紧密相连，而市场因素对商业地产投资环境的影响非常显著。随着经济的发 展，城市间交通的改善、城市绿化环境的改善，也会吸引更多居民，进而创造更多 的投资机会。在20个非一线城市综合因子得分排名中，长三角非一线城市商业地产 投资环境最好的是合肥，其次是南通和常州。政府在提升城市吸引力时，应着眼全 局观念，避免木桶效应，在注重持续发展城市经济的同时，也要协同城市基础设施 和生态环境的建设进度，协调各关键因素在提升城市投资环境中互动互推的综合效 果。 关键词：商业地产；投资环境；长三角；非一线城市 长三角非一线城市商业地产投资环境研究 I Abstract With the rapid development of China's real estate industry, the housing stock has reached a considerable scale, the country's housing market regulation is more and more strict, commercial real estate investment will become a new development opportunity. To meet the future global metropolis circle of competition, China began to implement in large cities, urban agglomeration development strategy to drive the city circle and economic comprehensive strength has always been the number one cause of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration again the attention of the investors, the "high quality" and "regional integration" for investors to see the huge commercial value and development opportunities. A large number of investors are focusing on the core cities such as Shanghai,suzhou, hangzhou, nanjing, wuxi and ningbo, so do other cities in the Yangtze river delta cluster have the same commercial value? How to choose a city to invest in? This is a question worth studying. Given less experts and scholars study on the first-tier cities in commercial real estate investment environment, therefore, this article in view of the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration in 20 of the first-tier cities for commercial property investment environment research, aimed at commercial real estate investors to choose the appropriate one line cities, to build the city investment environment and put forward reasonable Suggestions. Commercial real estate investment has the characteristics of diversity, specialty and high risk, and its development speed, investment layout, brand competitiveness, product quality and function will be affected by the investment environment. In the comprehensive evaluation of commercial real estate investment environment, involves many factors, including economic factors, the real estate market, infrastructure, ecological factors and social factors five categories, this paper constructed the city GDP growth, social total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate development investment, the population, the urban green area, the air quality in high-speed rail line, and better than 2 days (days) of 31 sub indexes such as investment environment evaluation system, using factor analysis method, after the common factors extracted from the variable group of statistical analysis, for commercial real estate investment to build a reasonable comprehensive evaluation model of investment. Through the evaluation of the investment environment of non-first-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, it is found that the market factors have the most significant impact on the investment environment of commercial real estate, and the economic development is also closely related to the dependent variables. With the economic development, the improvement of inter-city transportation and urban green environment will attract more Abstract II residents and create more investment opportunities. Among the 20 non-first-tier cities, the best commercial real estate investment environments are hefei, nantong and changzhou. In enhancing the attractiveness of cities, the government should pay attention to the overall concept and avoid the barrel effect. While paying attention to the sustainable development of urban economy, it should also coordinate the construction progress of urban infrastructure and ecological environment, and coordinate the comprehensive effects of various key factors in improving the interaction and promotion of urban investment environment. Keywords: commercial real estate; investment environment; Yangtze river delta; non-first-tier cities 长三角非一线城市商业地产投资环境研究 1 目 录 绪 论 ······ 1 一、研究背景和研究意义 ·············· 1 二、相关概念界定 ····· 2 三、国内外研究现状 ·· 4 四、研究思路、方法与主要内容 ····· 7 五、论文的创新与不足 ················· 8 第一章 商业地产投资与投资环境关系的理论分析 ·········· 10 第一节 商业地产投资特点 ············· 10 一、投资类型的多样性 ··············· 10 二、投资的专业性 ··· 10 三、盈利模式多样性 10 四、投资的高风险性 11 第二节 投资环境影响商业地产投资的机制 ·········· 11 一、经济因素影响商业地产发展速度 ··············· 11 二、房地产市场因素影响商业地产的发展速度 ··· 12 三、基础设施因素影响商业地产布局 ··············· 12 四、生态因素影响商业地产的品牌竞争力 ········· 12 五、社会因素影响商业地产的品质与功能 ········· 13 第二章 评价指标体系构建和方法选择 ········· 14 第一节 商业地产投资环境评价原则 · 14 一、主观和客观相结合原则 ········· 14 二、全面与重点相结合原则 ········· 14 三、绝对与相对相结合原则 ········· 14 四、定性与定量相结合原则 ········· 14 第二节 评价指标体系的构建 ·········· 15 一、经济因素衡量指标 ··············· 15 二、市场因素衡量指标 ··············· 15 三、基础设施因素衡量指标 ········· 16 四、生态因素衡量指标 ··············· 16 五、社会因素评价指标 ··············· 16 第三节 商业地产投资环境评价方法选择 ············· 17 一、现有投资环境评价方法 ········· 17 二、本文评价方法的选择 ············ 19 目录 2 第三章 长三角非一线城市商业地产和投资环境现状 ······ 21 第一节 长三角非一线城市商业地产发展状况 ······· 21 一、长三角非一线城市商业地产发展整体水平 ··· 21 二、长三角非一线城市间商业地产发展差异 ······ 22 第二节 长江三角洲城市投资环境现状 ················ 24 一、经济因素 ········· 24 二、市场因素 ········· 26 三、社会因素 ········· 27 四、基础设施因素 ··· 28 五、生态因素 ········· 29 第四章 长三角非一线城市商业地产投资环境评价 ·········· 31 第一节 数据来源与评价方法确定 ···· 31 一、数据来源 ········· 31 二、评价方法的确定 31 第二节 投资环境评价过程 ············· 31 一、选择综合因子 ··· 31 二、评价结果 ········· 35 结论与建议 ··············· 38 一、结论 ··············· 38 二、建议 ········