I 摘要 从世界经济的发展进程来看，公司始终都是保持经济高速发展，维护社会繁 荣稳定的主要支柱。企业在发展过程中对融入资金的需求较高，银 行业金融机构 则需要进行融出资金以获取利润，银行信贷就应运而生。但由于信息信贷市场不 对称、经济周期、宏观政策、经营情况等引发的企业信贷违约频繁发生，信贷资 源 供需往往会存在失衡的情况，这是一个典型的供需"困境"，即企业贷款难以获得、 银行贷款难以放出。对商业银行而言，理性的做法是采取企业的信贷分配政策， 对 企业进行评级分类，给予不同的风险定价水平，从而缓释企业信用违约风险， 但与此同时，商业银行的贷款门槛不断提高，也增加了企业在融资中的困难，加 大了企业的财务负 担。商业银行还需大力采取更优措施，在控制风险的情况下， 尽力满足合格企业的信贷需求，帮助支持实体经济发展。 企业信用违约问题是复杂的系统问题，本文共运用了企业 价值理论、信息不 对称理论以及综合风险管理理论，对企业信用违约问题进行系统综合分析。（1） 本文的主题是分析M市企业信用违约机制，探讨影响企业信用违约的因素，分 析 实证研究和企业信用违约的重要影响因素。进一步从企业信用行为、银行与企业 信息不对称、违约成本等方面，分析了企业违约的内部机制，建立了企业信用违 约行为分析的 理论框架；（2）探讨企业信用违约的影响因素，为本文的实证研究 提供理论依据；（3）利用问卷数据对企业信用违约相关要素展开实证研究，以此 来为本文研究提供实践基础 ；(4）从金融监管的角度制定政策建议，使信贷市场的 参与方银行、企业、地方经济能取得共赢。 本文实证研究方法采用描述性统计分析和计量经济学模型分析。第三章使用 描 述性统计分析方法分析了企业信用行为的特点，第四章利用 Logitic 模型分析了 企业信用违约的重要影响因素，通过理论和实证研究认为:（1）企业规模、企业类 型、政府项目 、所属行业、是否异地这五个因素对企业信用违约有显著影响;（2） 影响企业信用违约的其他因素，如银行规模和设立年数等对贷款违约影响度不高。 作为系统研究企业信用违 约的尝试，本文的研究仍有一些不足，主要缺点是： （1）本文主要选取了M市的企业贷款数据作为分析，本文的结果和结论有一定的 局限性;（2）企业信用违约的一些影响因素 难以量化，实证研究中的变量设置不反 映公司信用违约的所有因素。 关键词：信贷违约，Logitic模型，影响因素 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT In the process of world economic development, enterprises have always been one of the main pillars to maintain the rapid economic development and social prosperity and stability. Enterprises have a large demand for funds in the process of development, and financial institutions have also retained a large amount of capital surplus. However, due to the information credit market asymmetry, economic cycle, macro policy, business situation and other reasons, the supply and demand of credit resources will be unbalanced, which is a typical "’dilemma"’ of supply and demand. Enterprises have a large demand for funds in the process of development. Obviously, for the commercial banks, the rational way is to adopt the credit distribution policy and classify the enterprises, so as to correct the credit default of enterprises, reduce the contradiction of enterprise credit default, effectively solve the difficulties of enterprise loan and reduce the credit risk of commercial banks. However, at the same time, the behavior choice of commercial banks further aggravates the difficulties of enterprise credit financing environment. Therefore, commercial banks also need to take incentive measures to meet the credit needs of qualified enterprises and support the development of the real economy.Obviously, the logic of the action of economically rational commercial banks is to adopt credit ration policy to enterprises, and the behavior choice of commercial banks further worsens the plight of enterprise credit financing, therefore, correcting the enterprise credit default behavior is of great significance to reduce the probability of enterprise credit default,commercial banks also need to take incentive measures to meet the credit needs of qualified enterprises and support the development of the real economy. The problem of enterprise credit default is a complex system. The existing research on enterprise credit default can explain some parts of it, but can't explain the whole logic.Obviously, for the commercial banks, the rational way is to adopt the credit distribution policy and classify the enterprises, so as to correct the credit default of enterprises. It is not difficult to find that the problem of enterprise credit default is a complex system problem, and the existing research on enterprise credit default may explain some of them, but can not explain the whole and the logic that runs through it, based on the above considerations, this paper draws on the research results of various ABSTRACT III theories, so as to correct the credit default of enterprises. (1) at the same time, the behavior choice of commercial banks further aggravates the difficulties of enterprise credit financing environment, to explore the factors affecting corporate credit default, to analyze the important influencing factors of empirical research and enterprise credit default, commercial banks also need to take incentive measures to meet the credit needs of qualified enterprises and support the development of the real economy.Obviously. (2) correcting the enterprise credit default behavior is of great significance to reduce the probability of enterprise credit default; (3) This paper use questionnaire data to analyze the influencing factors of enterprise creditbusiness situation and other reasons, the supply and demand of credit resources;(4) Therefore, commercial banks also need to take incentive measures to meet the credit needs of qualified enterprises and support the development of the real economy.Obviously, the logic of the action of economically rational commercial banks is to adopt credit ration policy to enterprises, to explore the factors affecting credit default of enterprises, to analyze the significant factors of enterprise credit default, It is not difficult to find that the problem of enterprise credit default is a complex system problem, bank-enterprise information asymmetry, incomplete contract, default cost four aspects to analyze the internal mechanism of enterprise default, the logic of the action of economically rational commercial banks is to adopt credit ration policy to enterprises, and the behavior choice of commercial banks further worsens the plight of enterprise credit financing. The research methods are descriptive statistical analysis and logit model analysis. this paper mainly uses descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model analysis methods. Specifically. The fourth chapter uses logit model to analyze the important influencing factors of enterprise credit default, and considers the economic impact of each factor. Through theoretical and empirical research, it concludes that (1) the types of companies, government projects, whether they are in different places, industry, loan amount, company size, bank deposit and deposit loan ratio have significant influence on enterprise credit default;(2) other factors affecting enterprise credit default, such as bank size and years of establishment, have no significant significance.In empirical research methods, this paper mainly uses descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model analysis methods. Specifically, chapter 3 uses descriptive statistical analysis methods to analyze the characteristics of corporate credit behavior, and Chapter 4 uses Logit model to analyze the significant factors of corporate credit default, and examines the economic ABSTRACT IV effects of various factors. Through theoretical and empirical research, the following main conclusions are obtained: the type of enterprise, government projects,industry, loan amount, enterprise size and bank deposit-to-loan ratio and other factors. Of course, as an attempt to systematically study corporate credit default, there are still some drawbacks in this paper. The main shortcomings are:(1) with the development of economy and society, the scope of co