全国最大的动漫产业基地——国家动漫产业综合示范园 2009 年 7 月 1 日在 天津滨海新区正式开工。该项目的开工建设，对于加快动漫产业发展，增强文化 竞争力，更好地满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需求，都具有重大的意义。动 漫产业，是指以“创意”为核心，以动画、漫画为表现形式，包含动漫图书、报 刊、电影、电视、音像制品、舞台剧和基于现代信息传播技术手段的动漫新品种 等动漫直接产品的开发、生产、出版、播出、演出和销售，以及与动漫形象有关 的服装、玩具、电子游戏等衍生产品的生产和经营的产业。 本文从动漫产业园项目的实际情况出发，采用理论与实践相结合的研究方 法，详实地分析了动漫产业园项目的可行性问题。文中首先介绍了可行性研究的 相关理论和拟建项目概况，然后结合可行性研究的方法和程序，运用现代工程学、 经济学和管理科学理论从市场、技术方案，经济，社会和风险五个方面对该项目 的可行性进行了论述，在项目风险评估中主要采用模糊综合分析评价法层次分析 法对项目所面临的内外部风险因素进行了全方位的分析论证。通过分析论证最后 得出了该项目可行的结论，并提出了建议。 关键词：可行性研究；层次分析法；模糊评价Abstract The largest aination industrial base-National Animation Industrial Integrated Demonstration Garden was started on 1 st Jul, 2009 in Tianjin Binhai New Area. The construction of this project is of great significance for speeding up the development of animation industry, enhancing the culrture competitiveness and better meeting people’s growing spiritual and cultural needs. Animation industry refers to the “creative” as the core, animation, comic as performing forms, including animation books, newspapers, movies, television, audio and video products, stage plays, the development, production, issues, broadcasting, performing and sales of products which are new direct animation products based on morden information transmitting technology and the production and operation of industries relavant to animation figures such like dresses, toys and electrical games. Based on the situation of this animation industrial garden project and the research method of the integration of theory and practice,in this thesis，the main problems are analyzed in detail. First of all, the thesis introduces some relevant theories about feasibility study，and briefly describes the basic condition of the project. Then it analyses and demonstrates the project from the aspects of marketing, technology, economy, society and risks combined with the methods and procedures of feasibility study as well as modern engineering science, economics and management science. The thesis also uses the Fuzzy Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process model to evaluate the risk factors totally from the ouside factors to the inside factors. It finally gets a conclusion that the project is feasible and provides some useful suggestions. Key words: feasibility study; AHP; fuzzy analysis目 录 第一章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义 .............................................................................................1 1.2 国内外可行性研究发展概况综述 .....................................................................1 1.3 报告的研究内容 .................................................................................................5 第二章 可行性研究理论综述......................................................................................7 2.1 可行性研究的概念 .............................................................................................7 2.2 可行性研究的作用 .............................................................................................7 2.3 可行性研究的依据和要求 ..................................................................................8 2.4 可行性研究的阶段划分 ......................................................................................9 2.5 可行性研究的主要内容 .................................................................................... 11 第三章 项目建设的必要性........................................................................................15 3.1 项目基本情况 ...................................................................................................15 3.2 项目建设的必要性 ...........................................................................................16 3.3 市场研究 ...........................................................................................................19 3.4 市场预测 ...........................................................................................................22 3.5 项目的市场调查和预测 ...................................................................................27 第四章 项目技术方案可行性研究............................................................................33 4.1 场址建设条件 ...................................................................................................33 4.2 项目建设方案 ...................................................................................................34 4.3 公用工程 ...........................................................................................................36 4.4 节能方案 ...........................................................................................................43 4.5 环境影响评价与劳动安全 ...............................................................................49 第五章 投资估算与财务评价....................................................................................54 5.1 投资估算 ...........................................................................................................54 5.2 财务评价 ...........................................................................................................56 5.3 项目财务评价 ...................................................................................................59 第六章 社会评价........................................................................................................63 6.1 项目的社会影响分析 .......................................................................................63 6.2 项目适应性分析 ...............................................................................................646.3 项目社会风险分析 ...........................................................................................64 6.4 结论 ...................................................................................................................65 第七章 项目风险模糊综合评价................................................................................66 7.1 模糊综合评价原理和步骤 ................................................................................66 7.2 层次分析法简述 ................................................................................................70 7.3 模糊综合评价结果向量的分析 ........................................................................73 7.4 项目风险模糊综合评价 ...................................................................................74 第八章 结论和建议....................................................................................................83