I 摘要 随着城市化进程的不断加快和人们生活水平的日益提高，花卉作为一个生态 性、朝阳性的产业而崛起，逐渐受到政府的重视和群众的关注。近 10 多年来， 世界花卉业以平均 10%以上的速度增长，是世界最具有活力的产业之一。改革开 放以来，我国花卉产业有了快速的发展，已经成为世界花卉生产大国。2009 年 海南国际旅游岛建设上升为国家战略，而在 2011 年，海南省委、省政府做出启 动“绿化宝岛”工程建设的重大决策，特别是 2012 年 6 月《海口市绿化宝岛工 程建设实施方案》经十五届市政府第四次常务会议审议通过，提出了到 2015 年， 规划实施通道绿化、村庄绿化、河流水库绿化、海防林建设、林业开发建设、城 市森林建设、湿地保护工程、盆景花卉与种苗工程等“八项绿化工程”，构建“绿 环围绕、绿色穿插、绿点均布”的绿化格局。由此可见，海南省花卉苗木产业具 有巨大的发展潜力。 本文基于海口 XP 镇的实际情况和兰花产业发展现状，运用可行性研究的相 关理论和方法，在充分市场调查基础上，提出并设计 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目。 从宏观环境评估、市场前景分析出发进行项目规划，并对项目财务和风险评价做 出预估。得出如下结论：（1）海口市 XP 镇的自然气候条件、产业发展基础和社 会状况都合适该项目的开展。本项目应该定位为以花卉苗木标准化生产示范、交 易物流和园艺博览为核心内容，集娱乐休闲、婚庆度假、科研开发和科普教育为 一体的集约化、现代化、标准化和专业化的热带兰花产业园。（2）项目建成后主 要出售热带兰花产品和兰花观光度假服务，项目具有良好的市场前景。（3）通过 对项目投资回收期、NPV、ROI、ROE、IRR 指标进行测算，项目具有良好的盈利 能力；（4）项目面临的较大的不确定性是经营收入和经营成本的变动，且该两项 因素对项目的盈利能力影响较大，应当注意防范产生该两项变化的风险。 关键词：高新技术 兰花产业园 海口市 可行性研究Abstract II Abstract With the increasing urbanization continues to accelerate and the people's living standards, as a flower ecology, industry and the rise of the sun, gradually by the government's attention and the attention of the masses. Nearly 10 years, the world flower industry to more than an average of 10 percent growth, is one of the most dynamic industries in the world. Since the reform and opening up, China's flower industry has been rapid development, it has become the world's largest producer of flowers. 2009 international tourism island of Hainan rose to national strategies, and in 2011, the Hainan provincial government to make major decisions start "green island" project, in particular the June 2012 "Green island project in Haikou City construction implementation plan "by the fifth session of the municipal government executive meeting examined and adopted the fourth, made in 2015, planning and implementation of the green channel, the village green, green river reservoirs, coastal forest construction, forestry development and construction, the construction of urban forest, wetland protection engineering, potted flowers and seedlings engineering "Eight Green Project" to build "green ring around, interspersed with green, green points are cloth" green pattern. Thus, Hainan flower seedlings industry has a huge potential for development. Based on the current development situation of orchid industrial in XP ,Haikou. With relevant theories and methods of the feasibility study and full market research, proposed and designed orchid industrial park construction project of XP town. From the macro environmental assessment, market analysis starting project planning, and project finance and risk evaluation to make estimates. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the town of Haikou XP natural climatic conditions, industrial development and social conditions are appropriate to carry out the project. The project should be positioned as the standardized production of flower seedlings demonstration, trade logistics and horticulture Expo as the core content, the orchid industrial park is intensification, modernization, standardization and specialization and combines entertainment and leisure, wedding holiday, research and development and science education. (2) The project will sale tropical orchid products and orchid tourist service after the completion of the project, the project has good market prospects. (3) The project has good profitability by calculating the payback period, NPV, ROI, ROE, and IRR index; (4) the greater uncertainty the project faced is the changes of operating湘潭大学商学院硕士学位报告 III revenues and operating costs, and the two factors has greater impact on the profitability of the project, it should pay attention to prevent the risk of these two changes. Keywords: High-tech; Orchids industrial park; Feasibility Research; Haikou city目录 IV 目 录 摘要.. I Abstract...II 第 1 章 绪 论....1 1.1 研究背景和意义.....1 1.1.1 研究背景.......1 1.1.2 研究意义.......2 1.2 国内外研究评述.....2 1.2.1 国外相关研究........2 1.2.2 国内相关研究........3 1.2.3 研究评述.......4 1.3 研究思路与主要内容......5 1.4 研究方法和技术路线......5 第 2 章 相关理论概述........7 2.1 产业园区........7 2.1.1 产业园区的内涵....7 2.1.2 产业园区的特征....7 2.1.3 产业园区的作用....8 2.2 项目可行性分析.....9 2.2.1 项目可行性分析的概念.9 2.2.2 项目可行性分析的步骤.9 2.2.3 项目可行性分析的内容........10 第 3 章海口市 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目宏观环境评估..12 3.1 海口市 XP 镇概况12 3.1.1 自然气候条件......12 3.1.2 产业发展状况......12 3.1.3 社会发展状况......13 3.2 海口市 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目概况13 3.2.1 产业背景分析......13 3.2.2 区位背景分析......14 3.2.3 项目定位.....15 3.3 项目建设环境分析........15 3.3.1 经济环境.....15湘潭大学商学院硕士学位报告 V 3.3.2 自然、技术环境..15 3.3.3 社会、政策环境..16 第 4 章海口市 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目市场分析.17 4.1 市场供求现状分析........17 4.1.1 市场供给现状分析.......17 4.1.2 市场需求现状分析.......17 4.1.3 总体分析.....18 4.2 项目产品和服务分析...18 4.2.1 产品和服务的功能与特性分析.....18 4.2.2 产品和服务的生命周期分析19 4.3 项目市场前景分析........20 4.3.1 项目建设的 SWOT 分析...... 20 4.3.2 项目的销售定位..23 第 5 章 海口市 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目规划.....24 5.1 规划范围......24 5.2 规划依据......24 5.2.1 国家有关法律法规、技术标准、规划及文件.......24 5.2.2 地方有关法规、技术标准、规划及文件......24 5.3 规划原则......25 5.3.1 生态优先原则......25 5.3.2 区域协同原则......25 5.3.3 突出特色原则......25 5.4 规划现状......25 5.4.1 土地利用现状.....25 5.4.2 道路交通现状.....25 5.4.3 市政设施现状.....26 5.5 规划内容......26 5.5.1 项目的发展目标..26 5.5.2 发展规模.....26 5.5.3 空间结构.....27 5.5.4 用地布局.....28 第 6 章 海口市 XP 镇兰花产业园建设项目财务及风险评价.....30 6.1 项目投资估算.......30 6.1.1 项目建设投资估算.......30目录 VI 6.1.2 项目建设期利息估算...32 6.1.3 项目流动资金估算.......32 6.1.4 项目总投资估算..33 6.2 项目财务评价.......33 6.2.1 计算说明.....33 6.2.2 项目投资回收期..33 6.2.3 项目 NPV 指标....35 6.2.4 ROI 指标和 ROE 指标.36 6.2.5 IRR 指标.....36 6.3 项目不确定性和风险分析.....37 6.3.1 盈亏平衡分析......37 6.3.2 敏感性分析.38 结论40