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珠海JP公司建筑屋顶分布式光伏发电项目商业计划书DOC

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自二十一世纪以来,在各国科研人员的努力下,光伏电池技术不断取得突破,其发 电效率得到持续提升,各种光伏电站的单位建设成本也逐年下降,光伏电站的建设正以 令人惊叹的速度突飞猛进。本文以投资珠海JP公司建筑屋顶分布式光伏发电项目为研究 对象,完成商业计划书;本研究对珠海JP公司建筑屋顶建设分布式光伏发电项目实施具 有直接现实意义,对同类项目的开展具有一定参考价值。 本文分别从公司与项目简介、发展规划、电站设计与运营管理、电站盈利模式、财 务计划和风险控制等多个方面对投资珠海JP公司建筑屋顶分布式光伏发电项目进行分 析和总体规划。研究的内容主要有,首先,分析了本投资项目的背景和环境。其次,提 出了本项目的开发和运营思路。鉴于分布式光伏发电项目的特点,通过对周边用电市场 的分析,阐述了项目的定价策略及运维方式。接着,分别对宏观环境和行业竞争环境进 行了分析,并运用SWOT分析法对项目的优劣势,以及外部的机会与威胁进行分析。在 此基础上,进行投融资计划、收入和支出预测以及现金流预测等项目财务分析方面的工 作,采用净现值法(NPV)和内部收益率法(IRR)对本项目进行经济效益预测,并对 本项目的敏感性因素进行分析,从而在财务上确定了本项目的经济有效性。最后,对投 资珠海JP公司建筑屋顶分布式光伏发电项目在实际运营过程中可能面临的政策、市场、 管理与自然灾害等风险及相应对策进行了分析研究。 通过研究本文认为,珠海JP公司建筑屋顶分布式光伏发电项目的宏观环境和行业环 境都较好;项目的投资额为3572万元,其中的2500万元计划向银行贷款;项目资本成本 为8.3%;项目的净现值(NPV)为1739.78万元;修正后的内部收益率(MIRR)为11.71%, 大于项目资本成本;动态投资回收期为8.01年,低于投资者期望的10年投资回收期,结 合其节能环保的特性,本项目的综合效益十分显著。总体而言,本项目的风险较小、综 合效益较好,具有投资价值。 关键词,分布式光伏;投资经营;商业计划书II Abstract The 21 st century has witnessed numerous breakthroughs in photovoltaic cell technology,thanks to joint efforts by researchers from around the world. Featuring more electricity generating efficiency and lower construction costs, the photovoltaic power plants have been increasing rapidly. This paper serves as a Business Proposal, based on research of the Zhuhai JP Distributed Rooftop Photovoltaic Power Project. It provides guidelines for implementing the Zhuhai JP power station and can be referred to other similar projects. This paper conducts analysis and general planning on various aspects of the project, including the company profile, project description, development plan, designing and management of the powder station, profit pattern, financing and risk control. The content describes firstly the project general background, the theory of construction and management, and the pricing strategy based on features of distributed photovoltaic power and an analysis of the local electricity consumption market. Then, by using SWOT measures, it analyzes the macro environment and industrial competition, as well as the pros and cons and outside opportunities and risks. It also carries out the financing plan and gives an outlook of earnings, costs and cash flow, and predicts the economic benefit by using NPV and IRR measures, thus identifying the finance viability of the project. Finally, the paper makesa quantitative analysis on the possible risks in policy, market, management as well as natural disasters, and a qualitative analysis on risks by using factor sensitivity measures. To conclude, the Zhuhai JP Rooftop Photovoltaic Power Station has met a favorable macro and industrial environment. The total investment of this project is RMB 35.72 million, among which 25 million will be acquired through bank loans, with a capital cost of 8.3%. The project has a NPV of RMB 1739.78 million, far more than null. The revised MIRR is11.71%, higher than the capital cost. The dynamic payback period is 8.01 years, earlier than the investors-anticipated 10 years. Taking its environment-friendly natures into account, the project has a profound comprehensive benefit. In general, this project is of low risks and sound comprehensive benefits, herby worthy to invest. Keywords,Distributed photovoltaic;Investment and management;Business proposalIII 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I Abstract .................................................................................................................................... II 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景及意义 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述 .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 光伏政策的相关研究................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 分布式光伏市场环境的相关研究............................................................................ 3 1.2.3 分布式光伏应用的相关研究.................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究思路、内容与方法 .................................................................................................. 7 1.3.1 研究思路与内容........................................................................................................ 7 1.3.2 研究方法.................................................................................................................... 9 第二章 公司及项目概述........................................................................................................10 2.1 项目公司简介 ................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 项目概述 ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 项目位置及现状...................................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 项目建设条件.......................................................................................................... 12 2.2.3 项目设计方案.......................................................................................................... 12 2.2.4 项目基本技术指标.................................................................................................. 14 2.3 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 21 第三章 项目环境分析............................................................................................................23 3.1 项目的外部环境分析 .................................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 宏观环境分析.......................................................................................................... 23 3.1.2 行业环境分析.......................................................................................................... 24 3.2 珠海市能源规划分析 .................................................................................................... 26 3.3 SWOT 分析 .................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.1 优势.......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.2 劣势.......................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.3 机会.......................................................................................................................... 29 3.3.4 威胁.......................................................................................................................... 29IV 3.3.5 组合分析.................................................................................................................. 29 3.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 30 第四章 项目开发及运营思路................................................................................................31 4.1 项目开发原则 ................................................................................................................ 31 4.2 项目开发方式 ................................................................................................................ 32 4.3 项目市场分析 ................................................................................................................ 32 4.3.1 JP 公司用电情况 ..................................................................................................... 32 4.3.2 周边企业用电情况................................................................................................. 33 4.4 项目定价策略 ................................................................................................................ 34 4.5 项目运维方式及内容 .................................................................................................... 35 4.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 36 第五章 项目财务计划与效益分析........................................................................................38 5.1 项目经营方式与融资方式 ............................................................................................ 38 5.1.1 项目经营方式.......................................................................................................... 38 5.1.2 项目融资方式.......................................................................................................... 39 5.1.3 项目预估的基础数据与说明.................................................................................. 40 5. 1.4 项目贷款的偿还..................................................................................................... 41 5.2 项目的经营预测 ............................................................................................................ 41 5.2.1 项目的收入预测..................................................................................................... 42 5.2.3 项目的现金流预测................................................................................................. 44 5.3 项目效益评价 ................................................................................................................ 46 5.3.1 计算项目的资本成本.............................................................................................. 46 5.3.2 计算项目的净现值................................................................................................. 47 5.3.3 计算项目的内部收益率......................................................................................... 47 5.3.4 计算项目的投资回收期......................................................................................... 48 5.4 项目的敏感性因素分析 ................................................................................................ 49 5.4.1 单因素敏感性分析................................................................................................. 49 5.4.2 多因素敏感性分析................................................................................................. 50 5.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 51 第六章 项目风险分析与对策................................................................................................52V 6.1 政策性风险及对策 ........................................................................................................ 52 6.2 管理风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 53 6.3 经营风险及对策 ............................................................................................................ 55 6.4 自然环境风险及对策 .................................................................................................... 56 6.5 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 56 结 论....................................................................................................................................57