: 区域一体化进程的发展是近年来国际关系的重要变化之一。目前，区域一体 化协议已经涵盖了几乎每一个地区:欧洲的欧盟，拉丁美洲的南方共同市场，北 美的北美自由贸易协定，非洲的西非经济和货币联盟及中部非洲国家经济与货币 共同体，等等。区域一体化协议的发展不仅仅体现在数量上。在广度上，当前区 域一体化涵盖了发达国家和发展中国家，在深度上，更从松散的贸易合作发展到 深层次的经济和货币合作。 东亚地区区域一体化始于1967年东南亚国家联盟(简称“东盟”)的成立， 彼时，仅包括五个成员国。至今，东盟已经扩展到十个成员国，并与很多国家发 展了对话及合作关系。从1997年东盟10+3合作开始，东亚国家在金融、贸易、 劳动力流动、环境及可持续发展等各个领域展开合作，并取得了多个阶段性成果。 东亚区域一体化的推动力包括经济体间不断增强的相互依赖性，WTO框架下多 边会谈的停滞，区域一体化在世界其他地方的发展，以及1997年亚洲金融危机带 来的启示。随着区域合作的深化，东亚共同货币区的提议受到越来越多的关注。 本文从经济的角度出发，研究东亚共同货币区的可行性，并达成以下三个目 标。 首先，本文回顾了传统最优货币区(OCA)理论及一“内生性假说”和专业化 理论对其的发展。传统理论运用成本一收益分析框架，衡量国家在加入共同货币区 之前的一系列指标，如开放程度、要素流动性、经济冲击对称性等，来确定其可 行性。与此相对，“内生性假说”和专业化理论都关注于国家在加入共同货币区之 后的宏观经济表现。“内生性假说”认为，由共同货币带来的贸易量增加会提高国 家间商业周期同步性，而专业化理论则恰恰相反，认为区域内贸易的增加会引发 国家间的专业分工，从而使经济冲击更加不对称。 本文试图综合以上三种理论，并验证其在东亚是否成立。本文的第二个目标 即通过实证研究，证明东亚共同货币区的经济可行性。从传统理论角度看，东亚 无论是在区域内贸易、投资，还是劳动力流动上都呈现出了上升趋势，并促进了 经济体在产出和价格变动上的同步性。这一定程度上得益于区域内产业链的形成。 值得注意的是，将东亚的数据与欧盟1980年代数据做比较时，我们发现东亚在区 域内贸易及产出同步性上达到了欧盟的水平，这也进一步说明了成立共同货币区 的条件部分成熟。在对“内生性假说”和专业化理论的实证中，东亚区域内贸易 对经济周期同步性表现出显著的正面效应，并且区域内贸易的增加伴随着产业内 贸易的增加。由于东亚地区产业链的形成，由发达国家占据产业链上游，发展中 国际占据下游，东亚区域一体化会带来的贸易创造会大于贸易转移。 本文的第三点目标是为加强东亚货币合作提出建议。在共同货币的选择上， 本文比较了美元区、日元区、和一篮子货币的提议，支持建立由东亚各国货币组 成的亚洲货币单位，并将其作为区域内结算的平行货币和汇率协调工具。其外， 在现有成果一包括自由贸易协定、货币互换、监督机制一的基础上，本文建议 东亚国家1)加快完成涵盖整个东亚地区的自由贸易协定及亚洲债券市场;2)提 高多边清迈协议的有效性和独立性;3)建立有效的汇率监督机制和财政纪律;4) 通过合作促进各国国内改革。 尽管从经济的角度分析了东亚共同货币区的可行性，本文认为政治因素同样 重要。经济上的障碍可以通过市场驱动加以克服，政治和社会文化上的差异则更 难逾越。本文认为，实现共同货币区应当成为东亚区域合作的长期和最终目标， 但此过程需要循序渐进、多轨并行。希望本文能有一定借鉴意义，并启发对东亚 共同货币区的后续研究。 关键词:最优货币区;内生性假说;亚洲货币单位 THESIS二A Study on Economic Feasibility of a Common Currency Area in East Asia DEPARTMENT: Center for Chinese and American Studies SPECIALIZATION: International Relations GRADUATE二Zhang Yichen MENTOR: Jacob Kurien, Professor ABSTRACT: The growth of regional integration agreements has been one of the major developments in international relations in the past few decades; the European Union in Europe, the Common Market of the South in Latin America, the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Western African Economic and Monetary Union, and the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa are just a few examples of this trend. These regional integration agreements range in breadth and depth, covering both developed and developing countries and ranging from loosely connected trade-centered groups to highly coordinated economic and monetary unions. In East Asia, regional integration began with the establishment of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967, consisting of only five countries. Forty-five-year after its establishment, ASE AN has expanded to ten countries and has developed partnerships and entered into dialogue with a number of other countries. The process of ASEAN Plus Three (APT) cooperation was initiated in 1997. Since then they have made concerted efforts to promote financial cooperation, trade facilitation labor movement, and environmental and sustainable development. The pursuit of economic integration in East Asia is due to a variety of factors, including growing economic interdependence, slow progress in multilateral talks under the WT O framework, the popularity and success of regional groupings elsewhere, and the lessons learned from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. With the broadening and deepening of regional cooperation, the proposal for an East Asian common currency area has This received much attention from economists around the world. paper explores the feasibility of an East Asian common currency area and achieves three objectives. First, the paper reviews both the traditional principles of Optimum Currency Area thfo and its recent developments, including the endogeneity hypothesis and specialization theory. While traditional theory focuses on the criteria cost-versus-benefit analysis, including degree of openness, labor mobility, and symmetry of shocks, before countries join a common currency bloc, recent developments in Optimum Currency Area theory emphasize the aftereffects of integration. The endogeneity hypothesis argues that increased trade after adopting a common currency could induce greater synchronization of business cycles, while the specialization theory argues the opposite, that convergence may be reduced due to the specialization effects of integration. Second, the paper incorporates all three arguments and applies them to East Asia. Using recent data from 1981 to 2010, the paper argues that. an East Asian common currency area is feasible. From the lens of traditional Optimum Currency Area theory, it is evident that East Asia experienced rising trends in intra-regional trade, F DI flows and labor movements, a great part of which has been market-driven as a result of intra-regional production chains. In return, these trends contributed to greater output and price co-movements among economies. In comparison with the Eurozone of the 1980s, East Asia has demonstrated a similar level of intra-trade and output correlations, both of which are positive signs for deepening monetary cooperation in East Asia. In our tests of the endogeneity hypothesis and the specialization theory, the results demonstrate a positive link between intra-trade and business cycles synchronization in ten East Asian economies. The increased intra-trade is also accompanied by a rising degree of intra-industry trade. Due to the emergence of a production chain, with advanced countries in the upstream and less-developed ones downstream, we can expect a larger effect of trade creation than diversion as the regional integration intensifies. Third, the paper gives recommendations on transitional arrangements. It explores the options for a common currency in East Asia and suggests the use of a common internal currency basket一the Asian Currency Unit (AC功一as a parallel currency for transaction and exchange rates coordination. Based on the current progress on regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Currency Swap Agreements, and monitoring systems, we suggest that East Asian countries 1)accelerate the development of FTAs and Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) among AP工z) improve the effectiveness and independence of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) framework, 3) set up surveillance mechanisms for exchange rates coordination and fiscal discipline, and 4) carry out domestic financial reforms with the aid of cooperative projects. Ultimately, this paper argues that an East Asian common curre ncy is as bloc is economically feasible, but it is only half of the story. Regional integration much a political process as it is an economic one, and it often results from many different and interactive forces. While economic obstacles could be overcome through market-driven forces and institutional efforts, political and socio-cultural differences are not as easy to bridge. While the paper believes that a common currency area is the ultimate goal, it calls for gradualism and a step-by-step multi-track approach. Deepening economic integration should be accompanied by equal efforts on the political and socio-cultural fronts. A common currency bloc in East Asia may take a long time to achieve, but this paper hopes to shed some light on the process as it moves forward. KEY WORDS:Optimum Currency Area; the endogeneity hypothesis; Asian Currency unit A日BREVIATIONS AB MI ACFTA AC U AFTA ANIE APEC APT ASCU ASEAN ASP CEMAC CMI CMIM ECSC ECU ECCU EEC EFTA EMS EMU ERPD EU MERCOSUR NAFTA OECS RIETI UEMOA Asian Bond Markets Initiative ASEAN-PRC Free Trade Agreement Asian Currency Unit ASEAN Free Trade Area Asian Newly Industrialized Economy Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum ASEAN Plus Three ASEAN Secretariat Surveillance Coordinating Unit Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN Surveillance Process Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa Chiang Mai Initiative Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateral ization (CMIM) European Coal and Steel Community European Currency Unit Eastern Caribbean Currency Union European Economic Community European Free Trade Association European Monetary System European Monetary Union Economic Review and Policy Dialogue European Union Mercado Comun del Sur North American Free Trade Agreement Organization of Eastern Caribbean States Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry Western African Economic and Monetary Union Vlll TA日LE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................，..................................................i ABBREVIATIONS ............................，................................，...................viii 下A日LE OF CON下ENTS二，................，......................................................ix LIS下S OF FIGURES........，.......................................................，，......xi LIS下S OF TABLES.......................................................................................…...xii }N丁RODUC丁!ON.…，....................................................................................1 Chapter One LI丁ERATURE REVIEW.........................................................7 1 .1 Principles of traditional OCA theory........................................，...............8 1.2 Latest developments of OCA theory.............................................................11 1.2.1 The endogeneity hypothesis of OCA criteria................................11 1.3.2 Specialization Theory and OCA criteria...........................................巧 1.3 Proposals on a common currency area in East Asia.....................................17 1.4 Chapter summary..........................................................................................19 Chapter Two TESTING TRADITIONAL OCA CRITERIA ON EASTASIA ..…21 2.1 Intra-regional trade.........................................................................................21 2.2 FD1 flow in East Asia ...........，…、........，...........................，..........25 2.3 Labor mobility .....，................................，.............................................30 2.4 Output and price co-movement.....................................................................37 2.5 Chapter summary........、二，...，......................................................................41 ChapterThree THE ENDOGENEITY HYPOTHESISAND EASTASIA43 3.1 Trade and business cycles synchronization.........................................................44 3.2 Methodology and results................................................................................46 3.3 Intra-industry trade and the endogeneity of OCA criteria .................................. 48 3.3.1 Trends in intra-industry trade in East Asian......................................49 3.3.2 Results and discussions.............................................................................51 3.4 Chapter summary..................................................................................................55 Chapter Four FORIVIING A COMMON CURRENCY AREA IN EAST ASIA.…57 4.1 Choosing the currency for an East Asian monetary union...........。.........57 4.1 .1 East Asia as a Dollar Bloc..................................................................58 4.1.2 East Asia as a Yen or RMB, bloc ............................................................... 61 4.1.3 Constructing the Asian Currency Unit (AC切..................................63 4.2 Progress and challenges in East Asian integration ..........，.....................。71 4.2.1 Regional Free Trade Agreements...，...............，...............。.72 4.2.2 Regional financial cooperation and surveillance mechanism ..........75 4.3 Moving towards a common currency area: transitional arrangements .......78 4.4 Chapter summary..................................................................................................87 CONCLUSION...................................................，.............................90 REFERENCES....，..............................，............，.....................94 APPENDICES........................................................................................100 Appendix I Applied tariff rates in Asian developing economies........，......100 Appendix II F DI inflows into South Korea by source.....................................101 Appendix III World Bank measures for starting foreign business in East Asia.…102 Appendix IV Correlation of output growth and price in Eurozone ................103 Appendix V Export structure similarity in East Asia and Europe ..................104 Appendix VI Reducing exchange rates volatility by using ACU ...................105 Appendix V11 Nominal ACU deviation indicator forASEAN+3....................106 Appendix VIII Public finance of ASE AN十3 .........................，....................108 LISTS OF FIGURES Figure 1 .1:The effects of the endogeneity of OCA criteria.......................................13 Figure 1.2: Specialization effect on macroeconomic symmetry ...............................16 Figure 2.1:Intra-trade of groups as%of regional exports of trade groups ..............22 Figure 2.2: F DI inflows to ASEAN by source country (2000-2008)............................... 27 Figure 2.3:Output and price convergence often East Asia economies (1981-2010).....39 Figure 4.1(a): Nominal value ofACU in terms of the US$-Euro ......................，.66 Figure 4.1(b): Nominal value of ACU-cmi in terms of the US$-Euro .................，.…66 Figure 4.2: Percentage change in nominal exchange rates between East Asian currencies and ACU/ACU-cmi (2000-2012)..................................，.............68 Figure 5.1:Shares of FDI inflows to Korea by source country (2001一010)................101 Figure 5.2(a): Nominal ACU Deviation Indicator for China, Japan, and South Korea 106 Figure 5.2(b): Nominal ACU Deviation Indicator for ASEAN...............................107 Figure 5.2(c): Nominal ACU Deviation Indicator for ASEAN (cont.)...............，.…107 LISTS OF TABLES Table 2.1:Share of intra-regional trade in total trade of East Asia and West Europe ..... 23 Table 2.2: Intra-ASEAN migration flows...................................................................32 Table 2.3:Asian countries estimates of stocks of migrant workers in other countries around 2006....，...................................，.....................................，........34 Table 2.4: Correlation of output growth of East Asia (1981-2010)...........................40 Table 2.5: Correlation of price movements of East Asia (1981-2010)......................40 Table 3.1:Regression on business cycles synchronization and trade intensity ............... 47 Table 3.2(a): Export Similarity Index of China(1995, 2008)。.............................51 Table 3.2(b): Export Similarity Index of Japan (1995, 2008)...................................51 Table 3.3: Regression of business cycles synchronization and intra一industry trade.52 Table 4.1:ACU and ACU-cmi weights of East Asian currencies..............................67 Table 4.2: Free Trade Agreements among ASEAN+3....................，.......，.....，.73 Table 5.1:Average applied tariff rates in Asian developing economies (1980-2004)100 Table 5.2: World Bank measures for starting foreign business in East Asia ...........102 Table 5.3:Correlation of output growth of Eurozone (1970-2002)..…，..................103 Table 5.4: Correlation of price movements of Eurozone (1970-2002)..。...........103 Table 5.5: Export Similarity Index of East Asia and European (1980-2000).........104 Table 5.6: Public finance of ASEAN+3 (2001-2010)..............................................108 a IPITRODUCTIOPI Regional integration agreements have multiplied in the past few decades and the importance of regional groups in trade and finance is increasing dramatically (Mattli, 1999). The creation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1952 marked the beginning of the European integration. Since then, Europe has grown from a loosely connected, trade-centered group to a highly coordinated economic and monetary union completed by the adoption of the Euro in January 1s`, 1999. In Latin America from the early 1990s, more than half a dozen integration projects were started among which the leading trading agreements being the Mercado Comun del Sur (MERCOSUR) consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. In North America, a Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Canada was signed in 1989, which developed into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) after Mexico joined in 1994. In Asian Pacific, the most notable regional groupings are the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) formed in 1967 and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) launched in 1989. As Schiffand Winters (2003) noted, the growth of regional trading and monetary blocs has been one of the major developments in international relations in recent years; virtually all countries are now members of at least one bloc. This wave of regional integration merits two differences from the past. First, it 中国学术期刊(光盘版)电子杂志社编者注:文中〔含脚注和