在全球经济一体化的浪潮中，各区域经济一体化也是此起彼伏。目前的区域 经济一体化早已突破贸易合作的层次，正向朝着金融和货币一体化的深层次发展。 本文主要研究香港与大陆两地货币一体化的可行性。 研究香港与大陆货币一体化的可行性具有重要意义，尤其在当前百年不遇金 融危机的情况下。从内部来说，实现一体化可以整合两地的经济金融资源，能提 高效率增强竞争力，化解金融危机带来的消极影响，促进人民币国际化和完全自 由兑换的进程；从外部来说，可以增强在亚洲货币体系建设中乃至世界货币建设 中的话语权，为奠定未来中国货币的强势地位打下基础。 本文认为，要实现两地货币一体化就必须先具备三大条件，即经济金融方面 的条件，政治法律方面的条件，文化语言方面的条件。其中经济金融方面的条件 最为重要，主要有，经济金融联系密切与要素市场一体化；汇率制度融合与汇率 水平稳定；经济周期的同步性和受冲击时的对称性；经济发展水平比较接近；经 济金融高度开放以及其他条件等。 本文基于三大条件设置评估体系，建立一定的评估标准和对应的分数。本文 不但为两地的现状做出评估,而且分析未来一个经济周期的趋势并做出预测。 本文对两地现状的评估总值是 58 分，最后作了各类因素作用下的综合分析， 得出结论，虽然香港与大陆在贸易、金融、资本流动等方面联系密切，经济周期 也表现出较高的正相关性，两地货币也自发相互流通并初具规模，但是，两地的 经济发展水平存在巨大差距，汇率制度不同，尤其是人民币的非完全自由兑换性 质，都使得目前建立共同货币区缺乏基本条件，因此不能操之过急。但是，在下 一个经济周期之后，随着大陆经济的进一步发展，两地经济金融联系会更为密切， 各方面条件更加成熟，评估总值将达到 74-75 分，那个时候成立共同货币区就成 了很有可能的事。 关键词，货币一体化；可行性；经济金融条件；政治法律条件；文化语言条件； 趋势分析III Abstract In the global wave of economic integration, regional economic integration is also here. The current regional economic integration has already exceeded the level of trade cooperation, is toward financial and monetary integration in the development of the deep-seated. This paper studies the feasibility of monetary integration between Mainland China and Hong Kong. Hong Kong and Mainland China research the feasibility of monetary integration is of great significance, especially in the current financial crisis in rare circumstances. First: Internally, the implementation of integration to integrate both economic and financial resources, improve efficiency and enhance their competitiveness, to resolve the financial crisis in the negative impact and promote the internationalization of the CNY fully convertible and the process; from outside for can be increased in Asia and the world monetary system and monetary Construction of the right to speak, in order to lay the future of the Chinese currency to lay a strong foundation status. This paper believes that in order to achieve monetary integration on both sides must have the three conditions, namely the economic and financial conditions, political and legal conditions, and cultural conditions of the language. One of the conditions of economic and financial aspects of the most important are: economic and financial close contact, elements of market integration; exchange rate system integration, exchange rate stability; economic cycle synchronization and the symmetry of shocks; relatively near the level of economic development; economic The degree of openness and financial and so on. Based on the three conditions for setting the assessment system must set up the assessment criteria and the corresponding fraction. Article makes a assessment for the t distance of two current situation and analysis of future trends in an economic cycle and make a prediction. In this paper, the assessment of the status quo between the two places is 58 points total, Finally made a comprehensive analysis of under the action of various factors, draw a conclusion: Although Hong Kong and Mainland China in trade, finance, capital flows, etc. in close contact, the economic cycle also showed a high positive correlation between the two places to facilitate the circulation of currency also spontaneous and a coarse scale, but both the level of economic development there is aIV huge gap between different exchange rate regimes, in particular, are non-freely convertible CNY in nature, have made the establishment of a common currency area is currently a lack of basic conditions, it can not be hurried. However, after the next economic cycle, with the further development of the mainland's economy, economic and financial ties between the two places will be much closer, and all aspects of the conditions of a more sophisticated, assess the total value will reach 74-75 minutes,then the establishment of a common currency area will become a natural thing. Keywords: monetary integration; Feasibility; economic and financial conditions; political and legal conditions; culture and language conditions; trend analysisV 目 录 学位报告原创性声明及学位报告版权使用授权书 .................................................. I 摘要 ..................................................................................................................... II Abstract ................................................................................................................... III 插图索引............................................................................................................... VII 附表索引.............................................................................................................. VIII 第 1 章 绪论 ...........................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及意义 ......................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 选题背景 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .......................................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外相关理报告献综述 .......................................................................... 2 1.3 研究思路和研究方法 ................................................................................. 4 1.3.1 研究思路 .......................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 研究方法 .......................................................................................... 4 1.4 创新点和不足 ............................................................................................. 5 第 2 章 货币一体化相关理论及案例分析..............................................................6 2.1 相关货币一体化理论分析 .......................................................................... 6 2.1.1 传统最优货币区理论 ....................................................................... 6 2.1.2 新发展的货币一体化理论 ............................................................... 8 2.2 区域货币一体化的案例分析 .................................................................... 10 2.2.1 欧元的诞生 .................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 西非经济货币同盟 ......................................................................... 13 2.2.3 德国货币的统一 ............................................................................ 14 第 3 章 香港与大陆货币一体化的作用与条件评估体系设计 .............................15 3.1 香港与大陆货币一体化的作用 ................................................................ 15 3.1.1 香港与大陆货币一体化的经济收益 .............................................. 15 3.1.2 一体化能增强中国整体经济金融竞争力....................................... 16 3.1.3 一体化能促进亚洲的货币建设并增强对台湾吸引力 .................... 19 3.2 香港与大陆货币一体化的条件评估体系设计 ......................................... 20 3.2.1 经济金融条件 ................................................................................ 21 3.2.2 政治法律条件 ................................................................................ 23 3.2.3 历史文化语言价值观条件 ............................................................. 23VI 第 4 章 香港与大陆货币一体化的现实基础与趋势分析——基于三个条件评估体 系的分析..................................................................................................25 4.1 基于经济金融条件的现实基础和趋势分析 ............................................. 25 4.1.1 香港与大陆经济金融往来现状分析 .............................................. 25 4.1.2 香港与大陆汇率制度及汇率稳定性分析....................................... 28 4.1.3 两地经济周期的同步性和受冲击时的对称性分析 ....................... 32 4.1.4 香港与大陆的经济金融开放度分析 .............................................. 34 4.1.5 香港与大陆的经济发展水平比较 .................................................. 37 4.1.6 香港与大陆物价指数相关性分析 .................................................. 38 4.1.7 其他方面，财政政策的差异分析等 .............................................. 40 4.2 政治法律条件 ........................................................................................... 41 4.3 历史文化语言条件 ................................................................................... 41 4.4 现状评估分值与一个经济周期后的预测分值 ......................................... 41 第 5 章 香港与大陆货币一体化有利与制约因素的综合分析 .............................43 5.1 从现状分析有利因素和不利因素 ............................................................ 43 5.1.1 政治法律条件和文化语言条件明显要优于经济金融条件 ............ 43 5.1.2 经济金融条件有利因素方面.......................................................... 43 5.1.3 经济金融条件制约因素方面.......................................................... 44 5.2 综合分析 .................................................................................................. 46 结 论 ....................................................................................................................48