本文是关于在广州市从化区开发住宅项目的商业计划书。G 公司是设立于广州市 从化区的房地产开发公司，在当地已开发多个住宅项目，同时为了达到协同效应，还 通过股权买受的方式并购了一家具有建设工程施工资质的建筑工程公司。由于我国城 市发展的不均衡，作为一线城市的广州，不同区域的房地产市场的供需情况也有所不 同，加上各级政府对房地产市场存在差异性调控政策，导致房地产开发存在较大的不 确定性。但是，广州市从化区自 2015 年 8 月开始“撤市设区”，且自 2015 年开始我国 的货币政策持续宽松，加上国家出台的“全面放开二胎”政策和营业税（增值税）、契 税组合优惠等“去库存”政策，让房地产市场出现了较大增长潜力。本报告以 YS 住宅 项目为研究对象，以商业计划书的模式进行撰写。 首先，从战略管理的角度，通过对项目的外部环境进行分析，利用 PEST 模型对 项目政策、法律、人口、交通、文化、购买力等方面进行分析，从而确定项目具有良 好的发展前景和机遇。再通过 SWOT 模型分析项目的机会、威胁、优势和劣势，从而 得出项目的机会大于威胁、优势大于劣势的结论。 其次，从市场营销的角度，采取 STP 市场定位策略和 4P 理论，提出项目的市场定 位和营销策略，确定项目的目标客户包括具有刚性需求、改善型需求和投资性需求的 购房者。通过对目标客户的剖析，指出项目应定位为“市中心欧式高尚住宅小区”，以 此为基础，结合其他因素，从而得出项目的户型、配套、价格、营销渠道等因素。 最后，从项目投资分析的角度，对项目未来的现金流量进行估算和预测，并阐述 其融资渠道。以财务分析为出发点，运用资本资产定价模型（CAPM）确定项目的资 本成本，并以未来现金流量为基础，计算净现值和修正内部收益率，从而确定项目具 有投资的结论。另外，本文还将从政策、法律、价格、市场环境等角度对项目的风险 进行预测和剖析，并且提出相应的风险管理措施。 通过撰写本商业计划书，可以达到下列三个目的，第一，为当地的住宅项目开发 总结经验，并且制定前瞻性规划；第二，通过多角度的分析，得出项目具备投资价值 的结论，并且为相关利益主体提供决策依据；第三，协助企业获取融资。 本文具有明显的实践性和应用型特色，理由包括以下三点，第一，本文属于商业计 划书范畴的项目计划书，是房地产开发企业计划在取得土地使用权后对土地进行的开发 计划；第二，报告的内容是本文论及的项目涉及与房地产相关的众多实践性知识，譬如II 房地产的开发、建设、销售、税收、法律等，这些方面的信息、资料大部分取自于实际 的商业实践；第三，本文的形式是商业计划书，具有较强的应用性，可以作为同类项目 参考的模版。 本文的主要观点是，当资本成本为10%的情况下，YS房地产项目的净现值为3163.31 万元（＞0），修正内部收益为 28.2%，即使在资本成本上浮至 15%的情况下，项目净现 值仍达 1294.82 万元，因此，YS 房地产项目的投资价值较大，G 公司作为投资者，应当 对项目进行投资。 关键词，商业计划书；房地产开发；战略分析；营销分析；投资价值III Abstract This article is about business plan for developed residential projects in Conghua District of Guangzhou City. Company G was established in Conghua, Guangzhou area of real estate development Company, where it has developed a number of residential real estate projects. Meanwhilely it through buying equity way by the acquisition of a company with construction quality, in order to achieve synergy effect. Since urban development is not balanced, as the first-tier cities of Guangzhou, different areas of the real estate market supply and demand situation is different, there are differential control policy from levels of government on the real estate market, leading real estate development market to be uncertain. However, Conghua area sinceAugust 12, 2015 became district of Guangzhou city, and in 2015 since China's monetary policy continued to loose, and the country promulgated the full liberalization two- child policy and business tax, deed combination concessions anti-the inventory policy, so that the real estate market, there was greater growth potential. In this paper, YS residential real estate projects for the study, to business plan writing model. First at all, from the perspective of strategic management, performed by the external environment analysis of the project, the use of PEST model to policy, legal, demographic, transportation, culture, purchasing power and other aspects of analysis to determine the project has good prospects for development and opportunities. Then by using SWOT analysis of the project, threats, strengths and weaknesses, to arrive at this conclusions: opportunity of the project is greater than the threat, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Secondly, from a marketing point of view, take the STP market positioning strategy and 4P theory, market positioning and marketing strategy of the project, including the project identifiedtargetcustomers with rigid demand, improvethetypebuyers’demand andinvestment demand. Through the analysis of target customers, it should be pointed out that the project as a center of European luxury residential district, On this basis, combined with other factors to arrive at the apartment projects, supporting prices, marketing channels and other factors. Finally, from the perspective of project investment analysis, project future cash flow estimates and projections, and explains it’s financing. In financial analysis as a starting point, using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the discount rate for the project, andIV futurecashflowsandthe discountratewascalculatedbased ontheirpaybackperiod,netpresent value and internal rate of return and other financial indicators, thus determine the project profitableandhavethefeasibilityconclusions. Inaddition,thearticlealsofromthepolicy,legal, price, market conditions and other perspective of project risk prediction and analysis, and propose appropriate risk management measures. By writing this business plan, you can achieve the following two purposes: first, for the local residential project development lessons learned, and to develop forward planning; second, by multi-angle analysis, draw conclusions of the project investment value, and to provide basis for decision making relevant stakeholders; third, to help enterprises obtain financing. This article has obvious practical and applied characteristics, the reasons include the following three points. First, this project belongs to the business plan category project plan, which is the real estate development company plans to develop the project after after obtaining the land. Second, the real estate project discussed in the paper related many practical knowledge, such as real estate development, construction, sales, tax, law an so on. Therefore, most of the data and information are taken from the actual business practices. Third, this paper is in the form of a Business Plan, it has strong application that can be used as reference template for similar projects. The main point of this articles is that, when the cost of capital is 10%, the NPV of the project is 31.63 million yuan (more than 0), the modified internal revenue was 28.2%, even at the cost of capital up to 15%, and the NPV is 12.95 million yuan. Therefore, the investment value of YS project is larger than the expected return of G company, as an investor, it should invest in this project. Key words: The Business Plan；Real Estate Development；Strategic Analysis；Marketing analysis；Investment ValueV 目录 摘要 .................................................................... I 图表清单 .............................................................. VII 第一章 绪论 ............................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景和意义以及问题的提出...................................................................................................1 1.2 文献综述...........................................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 关于商业计划书的研究........................................................................................................2 1.2.2 关于房地产开发的研究........................................................................................................3 1.2.3 关于项目投资分析的研究....................................................................................................4 1.3 研究方法与内容....................................................................................