随着社会经济的发展，人类生活水平的提高以及工、农业产业 化进程的不断推进，资源危机和环境问题日益突出。寻找和开发新 的可再生的绿色替代能源成为应对全球能源短缺和气候变暖的重要 举措。我国也将大规模开发利用可再生能源，特别是本木油料这种 低碳能源。它能部分替代化石燃料，在一定程度上改善能源市场供 求不平衡的局面，同时，能调节水、空气、固体废弃物等的质量指 标，改善环境状况，促进资源节约型和环境友好型社会的发展。而 无患子则属于本木油料能源的一种，它广泛应用于日化产品、中药 原材料、生物质能源等方面。目前，国内很多地区正在紧锣密鼓地 开展无患子项目的生态林、能源林类产品的开发，以期解决现今能 源供需极度不平衡的矛盾，并且同时兼顾生态、经济和社会效益。 本研究通过对无患子相关技术和工艺状况进行综述，总结出目 前研究存在的不足。在此基础上，从开发能源林的角度出发，结合 当前我国能源林规划和已完成成果，以无患子种植及深加工项目可 行性为研究对象，围绕无患子皂苷和生物柴油市场潜力、建设条件、 生产工艺、项目管理以及其他生态、经济和社会等多角度分析与评 价无患子产业的可行性，指出无患子种植与深加工利于能源林建设 和生态圈平衡、利于土地流转和资源合理配置、利于循环经济的发 展和农、林产业的结构调整，符合国家可持续发展要求，最后得出， 从营建技术、建设规模和内容、自然条件方面来说，项目建设都是 可行的。 关键词：无患子项目，能源，效益，可行性II ABSTRACT With the social and economic development, the improvement of living standards of human and the advancement of industrial and agricultural industrialization, resource crisis and environment problem have become increasingly prominent. Finding and developing new green renewable alternative energy sources have become an important measure to deal with energy shortages and global warming. China is also develop and utilize the renewable energy on a large scale, especially the wood oil fuel, which is low-carbon energy. It can partially replace fossil fuels and improve the energy market situation of supply and demand imbalance to a certain extent. At the same time, it can adjust the quality indicators of the water, air, solid waste and so on, improve environmental conditions, and develop resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Sapindus mukorossi, which belongs to a wood fuel energy, is widely used in cosmetic products, traditional Chinese medicine materials, biomass and so on. At present, many parts of the country is redoubling its efforts to develop ecological forest and energy forest products of sapindus project, it is hope to solve the current energy extreme imbalanced contradiction between supply and demand and take into account the ecological, economic and social benefits. By comprehensive elaborating relevant technology and process conditions, it is summarized the shortcomings of current research in this paper. Based on this research, this paper considered China's current energy forest planning and achievements from the perspective of the development of energy forests. It is regarded the feasibility study of planting and deep processing project as the research object. The paper analyzes and evaluates many effects of sapindus, such as the market potential of saponins and biodiesel, construction conditions, production technology, project management and other ecological, economic and social benefits. It is concluded that the planting and deep processing of sapindus is conducive to energy forest construction and ecosystem balance, land circulation and rational allocation of resources, theIII development of circular economy and structure adjustment of agriculture and forestry. In addition, this project also comply with the requirements of national sustainable development. Finally, the project is feasible from the construction technology, construction scale and content, and natural conditions. Key Words: the project of sapindus, energy, benefits, feasibilityIV 目 录 摘要.............................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 .........................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的与意义 .............................................................................................1 1.2.1 研究目的 ...............................................................................................1 1.2.2 研究意义 ...............................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究综述 .............................................................................................3 1.3.1 无患子育苗、栽培技术的研究 ...........................................................3 1.3.2 无患子种质资源的相关研究 ...............................................................3 1.3.3 对无患子果皮中皂苷提取工艺的相关研究分析 ...............................4 1.3.4 无患子皂苷价值的相关研究 ...............................................................4 1.3.5 无患子籽油成分分析和工艺的提取的研究 .......................................5 1.4 政策依据 .........................................................................................................5 1.5 研究方法 .........................................................................................................6 1.6 研究重点与创新点 .........................................................................................6 1.6.1 研究重点 ...............................................................................................6 1.6.2 研究创新点 ...........................................................................................7 1.7 研究技术路线 .................................................................................................7 第二章 无患子种植及深加工项目背景和发展概况.................................................9 2.1 无患子种植及深加工项目提出的背景 .........................................................9 2.1.1 国家及无患子种植及深加工行业发展规划 .......................................9 2.1.2 无患子种植及深加工项目发起人和发起缘由 .................................13 2.2 无患子种植及深加工项目发展概况 ...........................................................14 2.2.1 已进行的调查研究及其成果 .............................................................14 2.2.2 厂址基本情况 .....................................................................................16 2.2.3 项目工艺技术 .....................................................................................16 2.3 无患子种植加工项目建设的必要性 ...........................................................18 第三章 无患子种植及深加工项目市场分析与建设规模.......................................20 3.1 市场调查 .......................................................................................................20 3.1.1 拟建无患子种植及深加工项目产出物用途调查 .............................20V 3.1.2 产品国内市场调查 .............................................................................21 3.1.3 国外市场调查 .....................................................................................25 3.1.4 产品价格调查 .....................................................................................28 3.2 基于 ARIMA 时间序列模型的无患子生物柴油的国内市场预测 .............29 3.2.1 数据收集 .............................................................................................30 3.2.2 ARIMA 模型的建立 ............................................................................30 3.2.3 我国木本生物柴油需求量预测 .........................................................35 3.3 皂苷产品的国内市场前景预测 ...................................................................36 3.4 无患子种植及深加工项目建设规模 ...........................................................39 第四章 无患子种植及深加工项目厂址选址与建设条件.......................................40 4.1 厂址选择 ...........