稀土产业技术创新是一个复杂的过程，本文基于创新生态系统 视角，将影响中国稀土产业技术创新因素带入到创新生态系统当中， 对中国稀土产业技术创新各影响因素进行剖析，以此建立中国稀土 产业技术创新生态系统。为提高中国稀土产业技术创新能力打好坚 实的理论基础，从而争取稀土产业新的发展。 通过对中国稀土产业技术创新现状及其影响因素分析，将影响 中国稀土产业技术创新因素分为需求、供给和支撑三个方面，运用 Vensim PLE 软件建立相应的子系统。根据子系统对中国稀土产业技 术创新综合影响，完善中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统因果回路图。 并以因果回路图为基础、以中国稀土产业专利总申请量为直接输出 值，进一步绘制中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统存量流量图。 以模型中各因素对整个中国稀土产业技术创新系统的影响强度 以及数据可靠性、可获取性为依据，将流图简化为可以仿真模拟的 系统动力学模型。基于仿真结果得出产学研合作强度、专利转换系 数、企业的 R＆D 投入比率对中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统的影 响显著，通过检验当系数分别为 2.1、0.75、0.015 时，仿真结果与II 真实数据误差最小。通过仿真模拟得出以下结论: （1）中国稀土产 业产学研合作强度对稀土产业技术创新具有较强促进作用。（2）稀 土产业专利申请量与专利转化系数存在正相关关系，但是稀土产业 专利申请量对专利转化系数敏感度较低。（3）稀土企业 R＆D 投入 强度与稀土产业技术创新具有显著正相关性。 关键词：系统动力学；稀土产业；产业技术创新；创新生态系统III RESEARCH ON OPTIMATIONOF CHINA'S RARE EARTH INDUSTRYTECHNOLOGY INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM BASEDON SYSTEM DYNAMICS ABSTRACT Technological innovation in the rare earth industry is a complex process. Based on the perspective of innovation ecosystem, this paper will bring the technological innovation factors affecting China's rare earth industry into the innovation ecosystem, and analyze the influencing factors of China's rare earth industry technology innovation. In this way, China's rare earth industry technology innovation ecosystem will be established. In order to improve the technological innovation capability of China's rare earth industry, the theoretical foundation has been laid through the simulation of system dynamics, so as to strive for the new development of the rare earth industry. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's rare earth industry technology innovation and describes the key influencing factors of China's rare earth industry technology innovation. By analyzing theIV status quo of China's rare earth industry technology innovation and its influencing factors, the environmental factors affecting China's rare earth industry technology innovation are divided into three aspects: demand, supply and support, and the corresponding subsystems are established by using Vensim PLE software. According to the comprehensive impact of subsystems on China's rare earth industry technology innovation, improve the causal loop diagram of China's rare earth industry technology innovation ecosystem. Based on the causal loop diagram that has been drawn, the total output of China's rare earth industry patents is taken as the direct output value, and the stock flow map of China's rare earth industry technology innovation ecosystem is further drawn. Based on the influence intensity of each factor on the technological innovation system of China's rare earth industry and the reliability of data, a flow chart of the technological innovation ecosystem of China's rare earth industry is established. According to the relevant available data, the flow diagram is simplified to a system dynamics model that can be simulated. Based on the simulation results, it is concluded that the intensity of Industry-University-Research cooperation, patent conversion coefficient and R&D input ratio of enterprises have significant impact on the technological innovation ecosystem of China's rare earth industry. When the coefficients are 2.1, 0.75 and 0.015 respectively, the errorV between simulation results and real data is the smallest. Through simulation, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) In China's rare earth industry, the intensity of industry-university-research cooperation has a strong role in promoting industrial technological innovation.(2) There is a positive correlation between patent application volume and patent conversion coefficient in rare earth industry, but the sensitivity of patent application volume to patent conversion coefficient in rare earth industry is low. (3) There is a significant positive correlation between R&D input ratio of rare earth enterprises and technological innovation of rare earth industry. KEYWORD:system dynamics;rare earth industry;industrialtechnology innovation; innovation ecosystemVI 目 录 一、绪论............................................................1 1.1 研究背景与研究意义 ............................................1 1.1.1 研究背景 ..................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................................................2 1.2 研究框架与内容 ................................................3 1.2.1 研究框架 ..................................................3 1.2.2 研究内容 ..............................................4 1.3 主要研究方法 ..................................................5 1.4 主要创新点 ....................................................6 二、相关理论及文献综述..............................................8 2.1 系统动力学理论及其研究综述 ....................................8 2.1.1 系统动力学理论含义和特征 ..................................8 2.1.2 国内外对系统动力学理论研究现状 ............................9 2.2 创新生态系统理论文献综述 ......................................9 2.2.1 创新生态系统含义 .........................................10 2.2.2 创新生态系统研究现状 .....................................11 2.3 产业技术创新能力研究综述 .....................................11 2.3.1 产业技术创新能力的内涵 ...................................11 2.3.2 国内外产业技术创新能力研究综述 ...........................12 三、中国稀土产业技术创新现状及其影响因素分析.......................14 3.1 中国稀土产业技术创新现状分析 .................................14 3.2 中国稀土产业技术创新影响因素分析 .............................16 3.2.1 需求因素分析 .............................................16 3.2.2 供给因素分析 .............................................19 3.2.3 支撑因素分析 .............................................20 四、中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统系统动力学模型构建.................22 4.1 中国稀土产业技术创新子系统系统动力学模型构建 .................22VII 4.1.1 需求环境子系统系统动力学模型构建 .........................22 4.1.2 供给环境子系统系统动力学模型构建 .........................23 4.1.3 支撑环境子系统系统动力学模型构建 .........................24 4.2 中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统因果关系图 .......................25 4.3 中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统存量流量图 .......................26 4.4 方程构建与模型变量 ...........................................28 4.4.1 方程构建 .................................................28 4.4.2 模型变量 .................................................29 五、中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统仿真实证分析.......................30 5.1 中国稀土产业技术创新生态系统有效性检验 .......................30 5.2 趋势仿真与政策模拟 ...........................................31 5.2.1 趋势仿真 .................................................31 5.2.2 政策模拟 .................................................33 六、研究结论及政策建议.............................................40 6.1 研究结论 .....................................................40 6.2 政策建议 .....................................................41 七、研究不足与展望.................................................43