粮库的建设对于保障粮食安全与稳定粮食价格发挥着主导作用，因此，在粮食储备 中，中央储备粮库数目最大，处于核心地位。另外，中国粮食储备体系能够加强对粮食 的宏观调控能力，对稳定世界粮食市场也具有重大意义。由于粮库项目具有投资数额大、 建设周期长、涉及范围广、不确定因素多等特性，因此必须全面分析此类项目建设中的 重要环节与重点技术要求，故必须重视和加强粮油储备库项目可行性研究，为项目的投 资决策提供科学依据。 本文主要采用文献检索法、和定性与定量分析相结合的方法，在技术经济评价的相 关理论知识体系与具体的案例实践运用基础上，提出适合 RZ 粮油储备库项目的可行性 分析的理论框架，并构建本项目的财务分析与评价模型，对中储粮 RZ 粮油储备库项目 进行可行性研究。 在中储粮 RZ 粮油储备库项目的可行性研究分析中，首先从项目基本情况、项目市 场规模情况、项目周边状况、自然条件、地质条件以及基础设施条件展开详细的调查， 然后再进一步的分析项目技术及管理的可行性，其中包括工艺方案、总平面布置、仓型 选择、土建工程、电气工程、给排水工程等，并对施工运行期间主要污染物，提出环境 保护方案，提高环境效益。最后根据投资估算与资金筹措等报表的分析，对净现值、容 积率、内部收益率、利润率、投资回报率等财务评价动态指标进行计算，分析该项目经 济上的可行性，同时又利用盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析等分析方法对项目进行不确定分 析，并针对项目在建设过程中的风险因素提出具体的防范措施。 关键词：RZ 粮油储备库，可行性研究，财务评价，风险分析II Abstract The construction of grain depots plays a leading role in ensuring gredients security and stabilizing gredients prices. Therefore，At all levels of grain reserves, sinograin has the largest number of reserves, which plays a leading role in the regulation of the market. In addition, China's grain reserves system also plays a very important role in strengthening the macro-control of food capacity and stability of the world grain market. However, with the development of grain depot project have many characteristics of long construction period, wide range of scope and uncertain factors. it is necessary to analyze the important links and key technical requirements in the construction of such projects. Therefore, investors must pay attention to strengthen the feasibility study of grain depot project, to provide scientific basis for project investment decision. This paper mainly adopts the method of document retrieval, combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis, and puts forward the theoretical framework for the feasibility analysis of RZ grain and oil reserve project on the basis of relevant theoretical knowledge system and concrete case practice of technical and economic evaluation. And constructs the financial analysis and evaluation model of the project, and studies the feasibility of the RZ grain and oil reserve project. As to the feasibility of grain depot project at RZ, first of all, the author analyzes the basic situation, the size of the project market, the project surrounding conditions, natural conditions, geological conditions and infrastructure conditions. And then further analysis of the feasibility of the project technology and management, including the program, the total layout, warehouse selection, civil engineering, electrical engineering, water supply and drainage works, and the construction of the main pollutants during the construction of environmental protection program, Improve environmental benefits. Finally, according to the analysis of investment and fundraising, the dynamic index of financial evaluation such as net present value, floor area ratio, internal rate of return, profit rate and return on investment to evaluate the economic feasibility of the project, and the use of profit and loss balance analysis, sensitivity analysis and other analytical methods for the project uncertainty analysis, and put forward specific preventive measures for the risk factors of the project in the course of construction. Key Words: RZ grain depot, feasibility study, financial evaluation, risk analysisIII 目 录 1 绪论.................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景及意义..........................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状..........................................................................................................1 1.2.1 国外研究现状................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2.2 国内研究现状................................................................................................................................. 4 1.2.3 国内可行性研究存在的问题........................................................................................................ 5 1.3 研究内容、方法及创新..............................................................................................5 1.3.1 本文研究内容................................................................................................................................ 5 1.3.2 本文研究方法及技术路线............................................................................................................ 6 1.3.3 本文创新点.................................................................................................................................... 6 2 建设项目可行性研究的相关理论.................................................................................8 2.1 建设项目开发的概念与流程......................................................................................8 2.2 建设项目开发可行性研究理论概述..........................................................................8 2.2.1 建设项目开发可行性研究的含义................................................................................................8 2.2.2 建设项目可行性研究的作用与意义.............................................................................................9 2.2.3 建设项目开发可行性研究的依据................................................................................................9 2.3 建设项目可行性研究的主要内容..............................................................................9 2.3.1 建设项目可行性研究的特点........................................................................................................ 9 2.3.2 建设项目可行性研究的步骤....................................................................................................... 10 2.3.3 建设项目可行性研究的原则....................................................................................................... 10 2.3.4 建设项目投资可行性研究分阶段工作....................................................................................... 11 2.4 不确定性分析.............................................................................................................11 3 建设项目财务分析和评价...........................................................................................13 3.1 建设项目财务分析目标.............................................................................................13 3.2 投资估算分析.............................................................................................................13 3.3 财务评价.....................................................................................................................14 3.4 各财务分析指标与报表的关系.................................................................................14 4 建设项目风险评估.......................................................................................................16 4.1 风险的一般概念........................................................................................................16 4.2 建设项目投资风险的特征........................................................................................16 4.3 建设项目投资风险的识别.........................................................................................17 4.3.1 建设项目投资风险识别方法..................................................................................................