安全是民用航空事业发展的基础，周恩来总理对民航工作的要求是保证安全 第一，可见安全对民航企业的重要性。因此民航局在持续推进民航安全管理工作， 航班运行风险管理作为民航安全管理的核心部分，更是受到民航企业的高度重视。 本文通过分析深圳航空公司（以下简称深航）航班运行风险管理现状，利用风险 管理理论和方法，构建了一个包含航班运行风险识别、分析、评估和控制的航班 运行风险管理程序。 该风险管理程序首先运用 SHEL 模型发现运行风险关键三要素：机组、飞机 和运行环境，进而根据深航航班运行特点，利用头脑风暴法对机组、飞机和运行 环境所涉及的运行风险源进行逐一识别；其次，利用层次分析法构建运行风险树， 利用专家赋值法为航班运行风险因素赋值和赋权重；再次，通过航班运行风险管 理模型计算航班运行风险值；最后，针对不同等级的运行风险制定差异化的控制 策略，降低航班运行风险至公司可接受的水平。 通过本文建立的运行风险源识别、分析、评估和控制程序，实现了航班运行 风险的事先管理功能。更为重要的是，该方法能够计算航班运行风险值，解决了 航班运行风险只能定性分析不能定量分析的问题，将深航的航班运行风险管理工 作推向了量化管理时代，降低了航班运行风险管理工作强度，提高了航班运行风 险管理工作效率和运行风险管理水平，增加了航班运行安全冗余度。 关键词：安全，风险源，运行风险，风险管理II STUDY OF FLIGHT OPERATION RISK MANAGEMENT ON SHENZHEN AIRLINES Abstract Safety is the foundation of the development of civil aviation. Premier Zhou Enlai always highlighted the safety when he talks about the civil aviation, so the importance of safety for civil aviation enterprises is obviously. Therefore, the Civil Aviation Administration always improves civil aviation safety. Flight operation risk management as a core part of civil aviation safety management is highly valued. In the paper, author uses risk management theory and method to construct flight operation risk management program that includes flight operation risk identification, analysis, evaluation and controlling. The risk management program firstly identify the three key elements of operation risk: the crew, aircraft, and operating environment by the SHEL model, then identifies the operation risk sources involved in the crew, aircraft, and operating environment by the brainstorming method. Secondly, the analytic hierarchy process and the brainstorming method is used to construct the operation risk tree, and the flight operation risk factors are given to weight factor by expert assignment method. Thirdly, the flight management model is used to calculate value-at-risk of flight. Finally, different control strategies are applied to different levels of flight operation risk for reducing the risk of flight operations to acceptable levels of the company. The pre-management function of flight operation risk was realized by the procedure. More importantly, the procedure got the flight operation risk value solved the problem that the flight operation risk can only be qualitatively analyzed and cannot be quantitatively analyzed, pushed the operation risk management work of Shenzhen Airlines to the quantitative management era, improved the efficiency and level of operation safety management work, and increased flight safety redundancy. Keywords: safety, risk source, operation risk, operation risk managementIII 目录 中文摘要.................................................I Abstract ................................................ II 第一章 绪论 ..............................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义..............................................1 1.2 研究内容与方法..............................................4 1.3 研究技术路线图..............................................6 第二章 风险管理相关理论与方法 ............................7 2.1 风险和风险管理..............................................7 2.2 风险识别方法................................................8 2.3 风险分析方法................................................9 2.4 风险评估方法...............................................11 2.5 风险控制策略...............................................11 第三章 深圳航空公司航班运行风险识别 .....................13 3.1 机组风险的识别.............................................13 3.2 飞机风险的识别.............................................16 3.3 运行环境风险的识别.........................................17 第四章 深圳航空公司航班运行风险分析 .....................20 4.1 机组运行风险分析...........................................20 4.2 飞机运行风险分析...........................................29 4.3 运行环境风险分析...........................................30 第五章 深圳航空公司航班运行风险评估 .....................35 5.1 运行风险计算方法...........................................36 5.2 航班运行风险数据 ...........................................37IV 5.3 运行风险值的计算 ...........................................42 第六章 深圳航空公司航班运行风险控制策略 .................51 6.1 低风险航班风险接受控制策略.................................51 6.2 中风险航班风险降低控制策略.................................52 6.3 高风险航班风险规避控制策略 .................................55 第七章 结论与展望 .......................................57 7.1 结论.......................................................57 7.2 展望.......................................................57