精准扶贫是全面建成小康社会、实现中华民族伟大复兴的重要保障，产业扶贫是精 准扶贫的重要组成部分，广东云浮将现代特色南药产业与精准扶贫相结合，大力推行特 色产业精准扶贫，选定了牛油果产业化项目作为农业增效、农民增收的新型特色农业项 目试点。本文以上述精准扶贫为背景，以 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目为研究实例，在 深入研究农业产业扶贫、牛油果产业发展现状等情况的基础上，运用项目可行性理论， 基于大量实例论证、SWOT 分析、模糊评价等工具方法，研究分析该项目的可行性，对 于广东云浮的产业扶贫工作实践具有重要的实际意义。 首先，本文综述了精准扶贫与农业产业化相关文献，发现各区的产业扶贫在资源优 势和制度环境等方面不尽相同，且都需要因地制宜。介绍了 A 公司及其牛油果项目的基 本情况，分析了精准扶贫背景下云浮市政府扶贫产业的项目排序与选择情况，总结了牛 油果产业化发展项目的特色，概括了现项目在产业化发展中的营销手段、人才、资金投 入和发展困境，指出了现项目的主要差距在于宣传推广力度不够、融资渠道略显单一、 未知风险预估不足和发展规模比较有限四个方面。 接着，报告基于 PEST 模型分析了中美贸易战背景下的经济和社会环境，对牛油果 行业的主要竞争对手特点进行了对比研究，从牛油果产业化项目的技术和人才优势、区 位优势和渠道优势等维度分析了牛油果项目的内部资源能力，基于 SWOT 工具确定了本 项目市场定位，即打造产供销一体化的生态产业项目，创建国产优质牛油果品牌，目标 对象为具有一定经济基础的中高端客户，长远发展规划为占领国内市场、开辟深加工市 场、拓展国际市场，并对项目推广提出了意见建议。 最后，报告采取定性与定量相结合的方法，全面分析牛油果产业化发展项目的各项 财务指标、盈利能力，并从社会、经济、生态效益等多角度对比分析，研究表明项目是 可行的，具有投资价值。在此基础上对项目的风险等级进行综合评估，其结果显示为低 风险，同时也提出防范和降低风险的相应对策措施。研究表明，通过本项目可以促进农 业从传统向现代科技转变，为解决产业扶贫探索新的可行之路。 关键词，精准扶贫；产业化发展；可行性研究；财务分析；风险分析II ABSTRACT Precise poverty alleviation is an important guarantee for building a well-off society in an all-round way and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Industrial poverty alleviation is an important part of precise poverty alleviation. Yunfu, Guangdong Province, combines modern characteristic Southern medicine industry with precise poverty alleviation, vigorously promotes precise poverty alleviation in characteristic industries, and selected the avocado industrialization project as agricultural efficiency enhancement. Pilot projects of new characteristic agriculture for increasing farmers'income. This paper takes the above precise poverty alleviation as the background and takes the development project of avocado industrialization of Company A as an example. On the basis of in-depth study of the situation of agricultural industry poverty alleviation and the development status of avocado industry, this paper studies and analyses the project by using the project feasibility theory, based on a large number of examples, SWOT analysis, fuzzy evaluation and other tool methods. The feasibility of the project is of great practical significance to the practice of industrial poverty alleviation in Yunfu, Guangdong Province. Firstly, this paper summarizes the literature related to precise poverty alleviation and agricultural industrialization, and finds that the industrial poverty alleviation in different districts is different in resource advantages and institutional environment, and needs to be tailored to local conditions. This paper introduces the basic situation of company A and its avocado project, analyses the ranking and selection of the projects of the poverty alleviation industry of Yunfu city government under the background of precise poverty alleviation, summarizes the characteristics of the avocado industrialization development project, summarizes the marketing means, talents, capital investment and development dilemma of the current project in the industrialization development, and points out that The main gaps of the existing projects lie in four aspects: insufficient publicity and promotion, a slightly single financing channel, insufficient unknown risk prediction and limited scale of development. Then, based on the PEST model, the paper analyses the economic and social environment under the background of Sino-US trade war, makes a comparative study on the characteristics of the main competitors in the avocado industry, and analyses the internal resource capacity of the avocado project from the technical and talent advantages, location advantages and channel advantages of the avocado industrialization project. Based on SWOT tools, the market orientation of this project is determined, that is, to build an ecological industry project withIII integrated production, supply and marketing, to create a domestic brand of high-quality avocado, and to target middle and high-end customers with a certain economic basis. The long-term development plan is to occupy the domestic market, open up a deep processing market, expand the International market, and promote the project. Suggestions and suggestions were put forward widely. Finally, the paper adopts a qualitative and quantitative method to analyze the financial indicators and profitability of the avocado industrialization development project comprehensively, and makes a comparative analysis from the social, economic, ecological and other aspects. The research shows that the project is feasible and has investment value. On this basis, the risk level of the project is evaluated comprehensively, and the result shows that the risk is low. At the same time, the corresponding countermeasures to prevent and reduce the risk are put forward. The research shows that this project can promote the transformation of agriculture from traditional to modern science and technology, and explore a new feasible way to solve industrial poverty alleviation. Key words，Targeted Poverty Alleviation；Industrialization Development；Feasibility Study； Financial Anaiysis；Risk AnaiysisIV 目 录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单...............................................................................................................................VIII 第一章 绪 论........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景、目的和意义.................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的和意义....................................................................................................... 2 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 精准扶贫与农业产业化相关理论........................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国外研究现状........................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 国内研究现状........................................................................................................... 5 1.2.4 文献总结与评述....................................................................................................... 7 1.3 研究内容、方法和技术路线.......................................................................................... 8 1.3.1 研究内容................................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法................................................................................................................... 8 1.3.3 技术路线................................................................................................................... 9 第二章 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目概况......................................................................11 2.1 A 公司基本情况介绍..................................................................................................... 11 2.2 精准扶贫背景下云浮市政府扶贫产业的选择............................................................ 11 2.2.1 国家对精准扶贫工作提出的要求......................................................................... 11 2.2.2 当地政府的产业扶贫项目排序与选择................................................................. 12 2.2.3 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目特色 ...................................................................... 14 2.3 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目的基本现状................................................................. 16 2.3.1 项目建设目标、选址与规划布局......................................................................... 16 2.3.2 项目产业化发展营销手段..................................................................................... 21 2.3.3 项目产业化发展的人才、资金投入..................................................................... 23V 2.3.4 项目产业化发展的困境......................................................................................... 23 2.4 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目的主要差距................................................................. 26 2.4.1 宣传推广力度不够................................................................................................. 26 2.4.2 融资渠道略显单一................................................................................................. 27 2.4.3 未知风险预估不足................................................................................................. 27 2.4.4 发展规模比较有限................................................................................................. 27 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 28 第三章 环境与资源分析......................................................................................................29 3.1 外部影响环境分析........................................................................................................ 29 3.1.1 中美贸易战背景下的经济和社会环境分析......................................................... 29 3.1.2 牛油果行业发展分析............................................................................................. 30 3.1.3 牛油果项目的现有同行分析................................................................................. 32 3.2 内部资源能力分析........................................................................................................ 35 3.2.1 云浮市政府精准扶贫目标和投入......................................................................... 35 3.2.2 牛油果产业化项目技术和人才优势..................................................................... 36 3.2.3 牛油果产业化项目地理和区位优势..................................................................... 37 3.2.4 牛油果产业化项目的渠道优势............................................................................. 38 3.3 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目 SWOT 分析 ............................................................. 39 3.3.1 牛油果产业化项目发展的现有短板..................................................................... 39 3.3.2 牛油果产业化项目 SWOT 矩阵............................................................................ 40 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 41 第四章 市场分析及策略......................................................................................................43 4.1 中国牛油果市场前景分析............................................................................................ 43 4.1.1 中国市场牛油果产业的发展趋势......................................................................... 43 4.1.2 中国牛油果行业发展的市场前景......................................................................... 44 4.1.3 中国牛油果市场供需现状分析............................................................................. 45 4.2 A 公司牛油果产业化项目的市场分析 ...................................................................... 49 4.2.1 目标定位................................................................................................................. 49 4.2.2 市场定位................................................................................................................. 49VI 4.2.3 品牌与价格分析..................................................................................................... 51 4.3 A 公司牛油果产业化发展项目的营销布局 .............................................................. 52 4.3.1 占领国内市场......................................................................................................... 52 4.3.2 开辟深加工市场..................................................................................................... 52 4.3.3 拓展国际市场......................................................................................................... 52 4.4 A 公司牛油果产业化项目推广的实施建议 .............................................................. 53 4.4.1 推行科学化规范化运行......................................................................................... 53 4.4.2 加强网络营销手段建设......................................................................................... 53 4.4.3 调动社会各方资源参与......................................................................................... 53 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 54 第五章 财务和效益分析......................................................................................................55 5.1 牛油果产业化项目投资及成本估算............................................................................ 55 5.1.1 财务分析编制依据................................................................................................. 55 5.1.2 项目投资和成本估算............................................................................................. 56 5.2 牛油果产业化项目收入预测分析................................................................................ 58 5.3 牛油果产业化项目盈利能力分析................................................................................ 59 5.3.1 项目财务基础参数................................................................................................. 59 5.3.2 项目盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................. 62 5.3.3 项目敏感性分析..................................................................................................... 62 5.3.4 项目总体财务评价................................................................................................. 63 5.4 牛油果产业化项目的效益分析.................................................................................... 64 5.4.1 助力政府脱贫攻坚................................................................................................. 64 5.4.2 改善农户家庭状况................................................................................................. 64 5.4.3 提高当地生态环境................................................................................................. 65 5.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 66 第六章 风险分析..................................................................................................................67 6.1 主要风险因素识别........................................................................................................ 67 6.2 风险程度分析................................................................................................................ 68 6.3 防范和降低风险对策.................................................................................................... 76VII 6.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 77 本文结论..................................................................................................................................78