小麦是中国重要的粮食作物。建国以来，我国小麦生产经历了波动发展、稳步增长、下降调 整和恢复增长这四个重要阶段的发展，已成为世界最大的小麦生产国，小麦常年产量在 1 亿吨以 上。我国以占世界 11.0%的小麦种植面积生产出了占世界总产 16.3%的小麦，为世界小麦生产发 展做出了重要贡献。我国小麦生产呈现区域化、专用化和产业化的特征，本文利用综合比较优势 指数法计算得出具有综合比较优势产区集中在黄淮海地区、西北地区、西藏和长江中下游部分地 区, 小麦未来增产既要重视河南等传统比较优势产区，又要扶持和依靠安徽、江苏等新兴比较优 势产区。 未来十年我国小麦将出现产需缺口。文章根据各预测方法的特征，选择 Cobb—Douglas 生产 函数模型和灰色预测模型构建组合模型对未来我国小麦生产进行预测，预测结果表明，2010-2020 年中国小麦产量将逐年递增，2015 年和 2020 年将分别达到 12393.7 万吨和 13729.4 万吨。基于 国内外学者对我国小麦需求预测的权威研究成果，本文考虑各研究方法和研究成果的特点，以其 平均值作为未来我国小麦需求的预测值，需求预测结果表明，中国小麦消费将持续增加，2015 年和 2020 年需求量将分别达到 13001 万吨和 13670 万吨。小麦的产量预测值和需求预测值的差 额即为未来我国小麦的产需缺口，研究结果表明，未来十年我国小麦将有较大的产需缺口，但这 个缺口呈递减趋势，2015 年我国产需缺口为 607.3 万吨，2020 年缺口消失，出现剩余 59.1 万吨。 利用国际市场填补我国小麦“产需缺口”是切实可行的。从国际市场的小麦可供性来看，世 界小麦贸易总量充足，运用“Holt指数平滑法”对未来世界小麦贸易的预测表明，贸易量将持 续增加；通过对我国小麦产量波动与世界主要出口国的相关性分析，得出我国小麦进口源较安全， 为了建立多元化、产量波动互补型的进口来源渠道，应考虑把法国和阿根廷列入我国的小麦进口 来源国。从利用国际市场的经济可行性来看，中国有足够的经济能力从国际市场进口本国所需的 小麦；通过“比较优势”原理得出，适当利用国际小麦市场有利于增加我国的经济利益和社会福 利。 利用国际市场填补我国小麦“产需缺口”不会对国际价格造成明显影响。根据各个阶段我国 小麦进口占世界总进口比重的特点，分阶段计算了我国小麦进口和国际小麦市场价格的相关系 数，在此基础上利用格兰杰因果检验法考察了两者间的关系，当我国小麦进口占世界总进口的年 均比例大于 5.05%时，会引起国际价格上涨。未来十年我国占世界小麦总进口的年均比例将保持 在 3%～4%，根据历史经验，这样比例的进口对国际小麦市场价格不会造成明显的影响。 关键词，小麦，组合预测，生产预测，需求预测，产需缺口，贸易可行性Abstract Wheat was a staple crop in China. Since the founding of the People's republic of China, wheat production in China had experienced four important stages of development: the unsteady development ,steady growth, down to adjust and return to growth, China had become the largest producer of wheat in the world, the annual output of wheat was more than 100 million tons. Wheat production in China accounts for 16.3% of total production in the world with the only 11.0% acreage, which made important contributions to development of wheat production in the world. The features of wheat production in China are regionalization, specialization, and industrial management. The result indicated that the Huang-Huai-Hai region, Northwest Territories, Tibet and parts of the Yangtze River has a comparative advantage in producing wheat. To increase wheat production in the future, it is necessary not only to pay attention to the areas which have traditional comparative advantage in producing, such as Henan Province, but also to support and rely on Anhui, Jiangsu and other new areas of aggregated advantage in producing wheat. According to the characteristics of various prediction methods,Cobb-Douglas model and GM (1, 1) were used as a combined model to predict the yield of wheat. The results indicated that annual output would increase from 2010 to 2020, and annual output of 2015 and 2020 would reach 123.94 and 137.29 million tons respectively. Based on the authority of wheat demand forecasting research, taking into account the characteristics of research methods and research findings, the average demand of predicting values was used as the future demand for wheat in China. The results showed that Chinese wheat consumption would continue to increase, annual demand of 2015 and 2020 would reach 130.01 and 136.70 million tons respectively. Imbalance between Production forecast and Demand forecast was the Shortfall of wheat in the future. The results showed that, there was a shortfall in the next decade in china, but this gap was in a decreasing trend, the number of gap was 6.07 million tons in 2015, however, there was no shortfall in 2020, but the Surplus of 59.1 tons. To fill the “shortfall of wheat was practicable by using international markets. From the perspective of the availability of wheat: wheat trade volume was sufficient in the world, the volume of wheat trade would continue to increase, which was proved by Holt exponential smoothing model. Based on the analysis of yield fluctuation correlation between the major wheat exporter counties and China, The results showed that the wheat imported from international market was secure, In order to establish a diversified, complementary output fluctuations sources of imports, France and Argentina should be listed as the exporting countries to China. From the perspective of economic viability: China has sufficient economic capacity to import their requirements of wheat from the international market, our country's economic interests and social welfare would be increased by using of the international wheat market. International prices would not be impacted by using of the international market to fill the production shortfall of wheat in China. According to the characteristics of the various stages of wheatimports share of total world imports, the correlation coefficient of wheat imports and the international wheat market price was calculated, and then using Granger test to check the relationship between the international price and wheat imports, it was showed that when annual proportion of China's wheat imports reached 5.05%, the imports would lead to increase the international prices. China's annual share of world wheat imports would be kept between 3% and 4% in the next decade, Referencing to historical experience, wheat prices would not be affected with the proportion of such imports. Key words: Wheat; Combined Model for Predicting; Production Forecast Demand Forecast; Supply and demand gap; Trade feasibility目 录 第一章 引 言................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 .............................................................................................................1 1.1.1 小麦是世界性的重要粮食作物...................................................................1 1.1.2 小麦在中国粮食中占有相当地位...............................................................2 1.1.3 中国小麦消费量略大于生产量...................................................................3 1.1.4 中国小麦进口量大于出口量.......................................................................3 1.1.5 未来中国小麦实现产需平衡面临挑战.......................................................4 1.2 国内外研究现状及问题提出 .............................................................................4 1.2.1 中国粮食产需预测及贸易必要性研究.......................................................5 1.2.2 中国小麦的产需预测及贸易影响研究.......................................................6 1.2.3 问题的提出...................................................................................................8 1.3 研究目的与研究内容 .........................................................................................8 1.3.1 研究目的.......................................................................................................8 1.3.2 研究内容及结构...........................................................................................9 1.4 研究方法和技术路线 .........................................................................................9 1.4.1 研究方法.......................................................................................................9 1.4.2 技术路线....................