本文源于 DC 新能源科技公司计划引入战略投资者，公司的决策层希望知道公司的 股权价值。因此，本文站在决策层的角度进行估值，为企业的股权交易提供帮助。 首先，论文对 DC 新能源科技公司内外部环境、竞争优势等一系列影响公司发展及 评估价值的要素分析；其次，基于高科技公司的特性，对常用的估值模型对比及适用性 分析，确定用现金流折现模型对现有产品业务的估值，用实物期权法对研发项目估值， 构建 DC 新能源科技公司股权价值的评估框架；然后，根据评估框架通过财务报表调整 及预测，运用 DCF 模型得到现有产品业务的价值；并通过研发项目期权的识别、选择、 B-S 定价模型分析、参数的确定及具体计算，运用实物期权法得到研发项目的价值。继 而确定 DC 新能源科技公司的整体价值，公司无金融性债务，计算出的整体价值即是股 权价值。最后，对 DC 新能源科技公司的股权价值进行敏感性因素分析。 通过本文的研究表明，DC 新能源科技公司属于高科技公司，存在期权特征，未来 有较高的机会价值；特别是研发项目，如果通过传统的 NPV 法进行估值，会被低估； 而使用 B-S 定价模型对研发项目评估，得到高于 NPV 的项目决策时点的价值，可以更 全面评估研发项目的价值。计算 DC 新能源科技公司的股权价值估值结果如下，在 2018 年 10 月 31 日时点的价值为 27,307,908 元，无金融负债，权益价值为 27,307,908 元。通 过敏感性分析得到，公司的股权价值区间，20,757,564~33,022,878 元，其营业收入增长 率、销售费用率，营运资本占收入比、管理费用、项目管理柔性价值是影响公司股权价 值的敏感性因素。 本文采用 DCF 模型与实物期权模型相结合的方式估值，为 DC 新能源科技公司在 引入战略投资者的估值定价提供参考。同时，为后续同类科技公司的股权价值评估有一 定的借鉴意义。 关键词，新能源科技公司；实物期权；股权价值评估II Abstract This article is derived from DC New Energy Technology Company plans to add strategic investors, the company's owner wants to know the value of the company. Therefore, this paper is based on the perspective of decision-maker to conduct valuations of the company's equity transactions. First of all, the thesis combines the internal and external environment of DC New Energy Technology Company. The competitive advantage, the characteristics of the company and other factors to analyze the value of the impact evaluation. Secondly, based on the characteristics of high-tech companies, after comparing and applicability analysis of commonly used valuation models. Determine the valuation of the existing product business using the discounted cash flow model, use the real option method to value the R&D investment project, and construct an evaluation framework for the value of the DC New Energy Technology Company; Determine the overall value of DC New Energy Technology Company, the company has no financial debt, and the calculated overall value is the equity value. Finally, the sensitivity factor analysis is used for the equity value of DC New Energy Technology Company. The research in this paper shows that: DC DC New Energy Technology Company is a high opportunity value in the future, especially for research and development projects. I use the BS pricing model to evaluate the R&D project and get the value of the project decision point higher than NPV, so that the value of the R&D project can be better obtained. And The valuation of the equity value of DC New Energy Technology Company is as follows: The value at the time of Oct.31,2018 is 27,307,908 Yuan, no financial liabilities, and the equity value is 27,307,908 Yuan. Through the sensitivity analysis, the company's equity value range: 20,757,564~33,022,878 Yuan, its operating income growth rate, sales expense ratio, project management flexible value is the sensitivity of the company's equity value factor. This paper uses the combination of DCF model and real option model to provide a reference for the valuation of DC New Energy Technology Company in the Equity transaction. At the same time, it has certain reference value for the subsequent evaluation of the equity value of similar technology companies. . Keywords: Technology Company Evaluation; Real option; Equity valuationIII 目 录 摘要 ...................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................... II 图表清单 ..............................................................................................................................V 第一章 绪论..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ..........................................................................................................1 1.2 文献综述......................................................................................................................1 1.2.1 企业价值评估文献综述 .......................................................................................2 1.2.2 DCF 模型文献综述 ...............................................................................................2 1.2.3 实物期权法文献综述...........................................................................................3 1.3 研究方法与内容 ..........................................................................................................4 第二章 DC 新能源科技公司商业分析与估值方法选择......................................................6 2.1 DC 新能源科技公司所处行业的发展趋势分析 ..........................................................6 2.1.1 新能源汽车行业发展现状及未来发展趋势 ........................................................7 2.1.2 新能源汽车车载充电机发展现状及未来市场规模.............................................8 2.2 公司的内部环境分析 ..................................................................................................8 2.2.1 主营业务及经营资质...........................................................................................9 2.2.2 产品的需求 ........................................................................................................10 2.2.3 产品的专利技术.................................................................................................10 2.2.4 公司主要经营模式.............................................................................................11 2.3 竞争优势分析............................................................................................................13 2.4 DC 新能源科技公司估值的特点 ...............................................................................15 2.5 股权价值评估的方法选择和框架建立 .....................................................................15 2.5.1 估值方法的适用性分析 ......................................................................................15 2.5.2 估值模型的选择.................................................................................................19 2.5.3 股权价值评估框架的建立与计算框架 ...............................................................19 2.6 本章小结....................................................................................................................20 第三章 基于 DCF 模型对现有业务的价值评估................................................................21 3.1 财务报表调整............................................................................................................21IV 3.1.1 资产负债表调整.................................................................................................21 3.1.2 利润表调整 ........................................................................................................24 3.2 现金流量的预测........................................................................................................25 3.2.1 增长期间的预测..................................................................................................25 3.2.2 建立现金流量预测模型 ......................................................................................25 3.2.3 现金流量的预测结果..........................................................................................32 3.3 确定现有产品业务评估