HT 地产城市商业综合体项目的可行性研究 随着 2004 年我国房地产业进入全新发展时期，全国上下也对此行业爆棚式 的发展引发了巨大的争议。因此自 2010 年以来，房地产开始进行紧缩型调控， 四月十七日颁布《国务院关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知》，调控力 度史无前例。2011 年以来，随着地产格局的更替和政策的调整，住宅地产发展 开始趋缓，而商业地产市场俨然进入到了黄金发展期。2011 年全年，办公楼和 商业营业用房销售额同比增长率分别高达 16.1%和 23.7%。二零一一年七月二十 日，中国银监会强调商业地产抵押贷款的风险，并首次提出对商业地产抵押贷 款的具体要求，表明我国已经开始关注商业房地产领域的过热迹象，但我国商 业地产市场仍有很大空间和潜力。目前房地产市场在一线城市已经开始趋于饱 和状态，未来商业地产开发必将转向二、三线城市。 本文的研究目的主要是为了对房地产开发项目进行计划管理，能使项目的 开发建设有计划、按顺序有条不紊地展开。通过对于项目可行性研究分析得出 通过使用一个动态计划管理，尽量使项目有序地，低风险地达到预期总目标。 通过对开发项目投资环境及市场分析有助于提高房地产开发商对房地产项目开 发前风险识别的能力。房地产开发是一个动态的过程，适应现时房地产开发市 场的不确定性环境，以保证房地产项目的成功是非常重要的。对于同类型开发 项目的分析研究有助于了解同类型房地产开发项目开发时遇到的各种情况与目 前的运营状态，保障房地产项目管理的正确性，正确选择差异化，地区适宜化 的项目规划，保障开发项目的顺利实现。对于周边项目的分析研究能够有依据 性的分析周边土地供应情况、地价情况与新建项目的构成情况，了解近年内周 边人口数量、人群等情况，更好的帮助一个项目的可持续发展定位与运营。通II 过以上分析与研究，对于现有项目进行分析评价以及初步定位，估测项目的经 济效益与风险程度，尽早的做出可行性分析与建议。通过这样的一种形式，更 好的保证企业的生存和稳定经营，达到提高开发项目的经济效益的目标。本文 通过对于以上几个方面的分析和研究最终给出该项目的可行性与风险防控建 议，保障该项目运行中的稳定性，提高该项目达到预期目标的可能性。 关键词： 房地产开发，可行性研究，商业地产，项目管理，风险管控III Abstract Feasibility Study of HT Real Estate Company HOPSCA With real estate industry going into a new development period in 2004 in our country，the industry development has caused great controversy all over the country. Therefore since 2010, real estate started retrenchment regulate and control, it came out “The notice of the state council concerning firmly curbing excessively rising property prices in some cities" on April 17, and the control is unprecedented. Since 2011, the real estate landscape has changed and policy adjusted, the residential real estate development began to slow, and commercial real estate market has entered the golden development period. Throughout 2011, office building and commercial business premises sales was as high as 16.1% and 23.7% year-on-year growth rate respectively. On July 20, 2011, the China banking regulatory commission (CBRC) emphasis on the loan risk of commercial real estate mortgage, and for the first time, it put forward the specific requirements for commercial real estate mortgage, showing that our country has begun to focus on commercial real estate overheating signal, but our country commercial real estate market still has great space and potential. Under the background of real estate development tending to be saturated in the first-tier cities, commercial real estate development is bound to the trend of spreading to the second - and third-tier cities in the future. The purpose of this study is mainly to the project planning management of real estate development, it can make the project development and construction run in a planned way, in order to methodically carrying out. Through the analysis to the project feasibility study by using a dynamic plan management, try to make the project in order and with low risk to achieve the expected general objective. Through analyzing investment environment and market development projects to improve the real estate developers’ ability of risk identification before real estateIV project development. Real estate development is a dynamic process, and it is important to adapt to the uncertainty of the current development of real estate market environment, to ensure the success of real estate project. It will help with understanding the development of real estate project with the same type of situations and the current state of operation to analysis and study of the same kind of projects, that is to ensure the correctness of the real estate project management and make the correct selection in differentiation, area suitable project planning, guarantee the realization of the development project going smoothly. The analysis and research for the surrounding project can make factual basis on the analysis of surrounding land supply, land price and the construction of the new project, to realize the population in surrounding area in recent years, groups, and so on and so forth, it can help the sustainable development of the project positioning and operation better. Via the analysis and research above, analysis and evaluate the existing projects and preliminary positioning, estimates economic efficiency and the degree of the project risk, as soon as possible to make the feasibility analysis and recommendations. Through such a form, it can guarantee the stable operation and survival of the enterprise, reach the target of improving the economic benefits of development project. Through the several aspects analysis and study above, this article provide the final recommendations of feasibility, risk prevention and control of the project, guarantee the stability of the project operation, increase the possibility of achieving the budget targets. Key words: Real estate development, feasibility study, commercial real estate, project management, risk controlV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论. 1 1.1 研究背景....... 1 1.2 研究意义....... 1 1.3 研究思路与结构安排..... 2 第 2 章 项目总论及投资市场分析. 3 2.1 项目简介....... 3 2.2 长春市宏观经济环境与房地产市场特点 ........ 6 2.3 长春市汽开区概况与规划...... 9 第 3 章 长春同类项目调研与项目周边情况. 13 3.1 城市综合体及商业市场........ 13 3.2 长春写字楼市场调研... 16 3.3 长春市酒店市场调研... 18 3.4 项目周边情况分析....... 22 第 4 章 项目方案及分析评价....... 25 4.1 项目方案与规划.. 25 4.2 项目分析、评价及定位........ 32 4.3 项目经济效益测算....... 36VI 4.4 社会风险及对策分析... 41 第 5 章 项目可行性综合评价....... 43 5.1 项目社会效益与环境效益分析..... 43 5.2 对该区域经济影响与社会适应性分析 . 44 5.3 本项目的财务效益分析........ 44 结 论 ....... 46