Analysis and Forecasts to 2O22 M a r k e t R e p o r t S e r i e s OIL 2O17 Check out the new and improved Oil Market Report website! The IEA has redesigned and improved its onlineOil Market Report( OMR ), making it easier forsubscribers and non-subscribers to get important information from the site. TheOMRsite — iea/oilmarketreport/ — now offers more powerful searchoptions and a fully indexed archive of reports going back to 1990. The improvedOMRalsofeatures interactive graphics as part of each monthly issue. First published in 1983, theOMRprovides the IEA view of the state of the international oilmarket, with projections for oil supply and demand 6 to 18 months ahead. For more informationon subscribing to theOMR , please visit iea/oilmarketreport/subscription/.O EC D/I EA , 2 01 7 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its membercountries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritativeresearch and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 membercountries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation amongits member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.The Agency’s aims include the following objectives:nSecure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.nPromote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protectionin a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contributeto climate change.nImprove transparency of international markets through collection and analysis ofenergy data.nSupport global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy suppliesand mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energyeffciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. nFind solutions to global energy challenges through engagement anddialogue with non-member countries, industry, internationalorganisations and other stakeholders.IEA member countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary IrelandItaly Japan Korea Luxembourg Netherlands New ZealandNorway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commissionalso participates inthe work of the IEA. Please note that this publicationis subject to specifc restrictionsthat limit its use and distribution.The terms and conditions are available online atiea/t&c/OECD/IEA, 2017 International Energy AgencyWebsite:iea Together Secure Sustainable FOREWORDOIL MARKET REPORT 2017 3FOREWORD We present the findings of this year’s report, which we have renamed the Market Report Series: Oil2017 (formerly theMedium-Term Oil Market Report ), in a very different market context than we sawa year ago, when surging OPEC production levels and stocks climbing ever upward contributed toprices falling to around USD 30 per barrel.Indeed today, the oil market is dramatically different aswe return to formal market management by OPEC and leading non-OPEC producers and pricesappear to have stabilised close to USD 55/bbl.This change is a reminder not only of the continuedcentral importance of oil in global energy markets, but also why the IEA’s continued emphasis onsecure energy supplies remains so essential.While the output reduction agreement takes shape, there is a broad debate on how quickly stockswill draw and when the market will rebalance.Another uncertainty is to what degree US light tightoil (LTO) and production from other non-OPEC countries will come bounding back, driven by higheroil prices and reduced production costs.Output levels are already edging up and look poised to riseover the course of this year. And the potential for new policies in the US that support furtherdevelopment have already boosted optimism in the oil patch there, though it will take some time forthis to translate into new barrels.While the US oil industry is seeing a revival, the dramatic declines in global oil industry investmentover the last two years, and only modest signs of recovery in 2017, mean that it is far from clear thatenough projects will enter the pipeline in the next few years to avoid a potentially tight market by2020 and with it, the possibility of a price spike.On the demand side, we see less uncertainty: growth will continue, driven mainly by Asia.Indiaovertakes China as the main driver of demand growth, as was foreseen by the IEA some time ago. And while there has been much discussion and debate about a peak in oil demand, we see no suchpeak in sight.Thus, we will need to see more upstream oil investment and we will need to see itsoon.Given the many uncertainties on the production side and the expectation of sustained demandgrowth, many are predicting greater volatility in the oil market which generally has negativeconsequences for both consumers and producers.It is my hope that this report will provide clearinsights on the next five years in the international oil market and that it will provide a constructivecontribution to the debate.And in the meantime, the IEA will continue to watch the market, monitordevelopments and call for adequate investment to ensure secure energy supplies.Dr. Fatih Birol Executive DirectorInternational Energy Agency O EC D/I EA , 2 01 7 。。。。。。