软件外包的目的是为企业带来潜在的收益，但事实证明，并不是所有软件项目都
能在外包中获得成功，外包过程中充满了各种不确定性，企业通过软件项目外包
所面临的风险与自己开发相比会有很多不同，然而，很多发包方和承包方又缺乏
风险管理意识，因此，各种风险接踵而来，却不能得到很好的控制和管理，给软
件外包项目风险升高，导致项目失败率较高。为了保障软件外包项目的成功实施，
进行软件外包项目风险管理就是一条必要途径。软件外包项目风险管理可以从发
包方和承包方两个角度进行研究，本文将从发包方角度出发，结合诚信信贷公司
个人贷款管理软件外包项目的实际情况，对风险管理进行研究探索，从而提升外
包项目的成功率
本文首先介绍了论文研究背景、国内外研究现状、研究内容及方法等。其次
阐述了了有关软件外包项目的相关理论基础，为后续内容做好铺垫。第三，在诚
信信贷公司个人贷款管理软件外包项目风险识别中，介绍了德尔菲法、检查表法、
头脑风暴法、态势分析法等常用识别方法的特点，并说明了本文选取德尔菲法的
原因。基于此列出风险因素初始清单，阐述了利用德尔菲法对风险因素进行识别
的全过程，得出主要的风险因素。第四，在诚信信贷公司个人贷款管理软件外包
项目风险评估中，本文结合诚信信贷公司软件外包项目风险特点，对主观分析法、
决策树分析法，风险矩阵法等多种风险评估方法进行介绍，总结分析出每种评估
方法的优缺点，从而选出更加适用于该项目的层次分析法和模糊数学法进行风险
评估。之后从构建风险因素层次着手，分析各项风险权重和发生的概率，得出各
项子风险对总风险的影响，获得最终的模糊综合评估结果。最后，本文基于上述
研究提出具体的风险应对策略，为该公司有效规避风险，降低损失，更加顺利的
完成软件外包工作提供保障
关键词：软件外包；风险管理；风险识别；风险评估；风险应对；II
Abstract
At present, the rapid development of information construction, the demand for
information construction enterprises, but enterprises often lack of information
technology and experience, software development process, if the use of outsourcing
tools can reduce or maintain development costs and management costs, so that
enterprises can more focus on their core competitiveness, software outsourcing will be
more and more favored by enterprises. The purpose of software outsourcing is to bring
potential benefits for enterprises, but not all software projects can be successful in
outsourcing, the risk and challenge of enterprises will be much more developed, but
many party and contractors lack risk management consciousness, so various risks will
not get good control and management, increase the risk of software outsourcing projects.
In order to ensure the successful implementation of software outsourcing project, the
risk management of software outsourcing is an effective way. Software outsourcing
project risk management is the common topic of the party and the contractor, this paper
will start from the client perspective, combined with the actual situation of personal
loan credit management software outsourcing project, study on risk management, so as
to enhance the success rate of the project outsourcing.
This article first introduced the thesis research background, research status at home
and abroad, research contents and methods, etc. Second in this paper, the relevant
theoretical basis about the software outsourcing project, as the subsequent content.
Third, personal loans in good faith credit company management software outsourcing
project risk identification, this paper introduces the Delphi method and check table
method, brainstorming method, situational analysis method and so on the characteristics
of the commonly used identification methods, and choose the reason of the Delphi
method presented in this paper. Based on the risk factors listed the initial listing, and
expounds the use of Delphi method to identify the whole process of risk factors, it is
concluded that the main risk factors. Fourth, in good faith credit company personal loan
management software outsourcing project risk assessment, this paper combined with the
software outsourcing project risk characteristics, the honest credit company of
subjective analysis, decision tree analysis, risk matrix method and so on the many kinds
of risk assessment methods are introduced, analysis the advantages and disadvantages
of each evaluation method, so as to choose the more suitable for the project risk
assessment is made based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics method.
Risk factors from the build level, after analyzing the risk weighting and the probability,III
it is concluded that the risk&39;s influence on the total risk, to obtain the final fuzzy
comprehensive assessment. Finally, this article is based on the above study and put
forward specific risk coping strategies, for the company effectively avoid risk, reduce
loss, more smoothly in the complete software outsourcing work.
Keywords: Software outsourcing；risk management；risk identification；risk
assessment；risk response；IV
目 录
摘要.......I
ABSTRACT.II
第 1 章 绪 论.....1
1.1 研究背景及意义1
1.1.1 研究背景1
1.1.2 研究意义2
1.2 国内外研究现状综述....3
1.2.1 国外研究现状....3
1.2.2 国内研究现状....4
1.3 研究内容及方法5
1.3.1 研究内容5
1.3.2 研究方法.6
1.4 论文创新之处....6
第 2 章 相关理论基础.....7
2.1 软件外包项目的概念及特点....7
2.1.1 软件外包项目的概念....7
2.1.2 软件外包项目的特点....7
2.2 软件项目的外包过程....8
2.3 软件外包项目风险的界定........9
第 3 章 诚信信贷公司个人贷款管理软件外包项目风险识别...........11
3.1 风险识别的依据..........11
3.2 风险识别的方法..........11
3.3 风险识别的结果..........13
第 4 章 诚信信贷公司个人贷款管理软件外包项目风险评估...........16
4.1 风险评估方法的选择..16
4.2 风险评估过程及结果..18
4.2.1 构建风险因素层次结构..........18
4.2.2 确定风险权重..19
4.2.3 模糊综合评估结果......
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