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I
苏州 C 银行个人住房贷款业务信用风险防范研究
中文摘要
个人住房贷款作为商业银行的一款信贷产品，其由于资金占用少、风险相对较低，
收益率相对较高的特点，受到了各大商业银行的推广，其占商业银行的份额也持续上
升，个人住房贷款业务逐渐成为商业银行新的利润增长引擎和未来发展方向。同时近
几年，随着我国城镇化的发展，经济增速趋缓，“去库存”的大背景下，我国热点城市
房价呈现爆发式的增长，其个人住房贷款需求也呈现爆发式的增长，其风险也逐渐也
不断增加，这样的风险必然会波及房地产及其上下游产业、居民、银行和整个国民经
济的连锁反应，因此商业银行如何有效地控制个人住房贷款产生的风险，构建居民、
银行和社会共同的风险管理体系，是我们当前急需推进的一项任务

从研究意义来说，本文立足 C 银行当前信用风险管理现状，分析 C 银行个人住
房贷款相关的信用风险成因，针对其信用风险点提出相应的对策性建议，这将有利于
我们分析当前我国宏观经济发展情况以及分析我国房地产行业和经济的适应情况；另
外本文通过 C 银行苏州分行的实际数据，并建立 Logistic 模型对苏州 C 银行个人住房
贷款违约因素进行具体分析，得到了一定的结论，这也有利于分析商业银行个人住房
贷款实际过程中面临的信用风险，这有利于银行规范商业银行住房贷款业务、进一步
调整其管理的方针和策略，防范金融风险，实现住房贷款业务流程效率和信用风险管
理的平衡；实现全方面风险管理制度，有利于加强商业银行信用风险管理能力

根据已有的研究结果，结合定性和定量的分析，从理论到实践的研究方法，运用
文献梳理法、案例分析法、定量研究法等方法，以我国商业银行个人住房贷款的具体
实践和风险成因进行分析，结合数据对 C 银行个人住房贷款进行剖析，从信用风险
进行分析，最后针对信用风险的成因提出有效的对策性建议

关键词：个人住房贷款；信用风险；风险对策；C 银行
作 者：茆福虎
指导老师：薛誉华Abstract A Study on Credit Risk Prevention of Personal Housing Loan Business of Suzhou Bank C
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II
A Study on Credit Risk Prevention of Personal Housing
Loan Business of Suzhou Bank C
Abstract
Individual housing loans as a commercial bank of a credit product, which due to less
capital occupation, the risk is relatively low, the yield is relatively high characteristics, by
the major commercial banks to promote its share of commercial banks also continued to
rise, Individual housing loan business has gradually become a new profit growth of
commercial banks and the future direction of development. At the same time in recent
years, with the development of China&39;s urbanization, economic growth slowed down, to
inventory under the background, China&39;s hot city housing prices show explosive growth,
the demand for individual housing loans also showed explosive growth, The risk is also
gradually increasing, such a risk will inevitably affect the real estate and its upstream and
downstream industries, residents, banks and the entire national economic chain reaction, so
how to effectively control the commercial banks personal housing loans risk, build
residents, banks And the social common risk management system, is our urgent need to
advance a task.
From the point of view of research, this paper analyzes the current risk management
of Bank C based on the current risk management of Bank C, and puts forward the
corresponding countermeasures suggestions for the risk point of Bank C. This will help us
to analyze the current macroeconomic development and This paper analyzes the real estate
industry and the economic adaptability in China. In addition, through the actual data of
Suzhou Branch of Bank C and the establishment of Logistic model, the author analyzes the
main risks faced by individual loans of Suzhou Bank C, and obtains some of the main risks.
Which is conducive to the bank to regulate the commercial bank housing loan business, to
further adjust its management principles and strategies to prevent financial risks, to achieve
housing loan business process efficiency and risk management balance; To achieve all
aspects of risk management system, is conducive to strengthening the commercial bank
risk management capabilities.A Study on Risk Prevention of Personal Housing Loan Business of Suzhou Bank C Abstract
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III
Based on the existing research results, combined with qualitative and quantitative
analysis, from the theory to the practice of research methods, the use of literature combing,
case analysis, quantitative research methods and other methods to China&39;s commercial
banks personal housing loans specific practice and risk This paper analyzes the individual
housing loans of Bank C, analyzes the credit risk and operational risk, and puts forward
some effective countermeasures for the causes of credit risk.
Key words：Individual housing loan; credit risk cause; credit risk countermeasure;
Bank C
Written by Mao fu hu
Supervised by Xue yu hua
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目 录
1 导 论......1
1.1 研究背景及意义......1
1.1.1 研究背景........1
1.1.2 研究意义........1
1.2 文献综述......2
1.2.1 国外文献综述2
1.2.2 国内文献综述4
1.2.3 研究述评........5
1.3 研究方法、研究内容以及研究框架..........6
1.3.1 研究方法........6
1.3.2 研究内容........6
1.3.3 研究框架........7
2 相关理论..8
2.1 信用风险的相关理论..........8
2.1.1 真实票据理论.8
2.1.2 预期收入理论.8
2.1.3 资金转换理论.9
2.1.4 资产分散理论.9
2.2 商业银行控制信用风险的方法....10
2.2.1 定性方法......10
2.2.2 定量方法......10
3 苏州 C 银行个人房贷信用风险管理的现状和问题...14
3.1 苏州 C 银行个人住房贷款发展和存在的问题...14
3.1.1 分行概况.....
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