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本文根据 2013 年至 2015 年光伏产业上市公司财务报告，选取
适当的财务指标构建投资价值评价指标体系，采用主成分分析和熵
权法，通过主成分分析法提炼因子，确定财务指标综合指数，结合
光伏产业上市公司股票综合市盈率，评价上市公司的投资价值，为
投资者提供决策依据
本文的主要结论是：近几年我国光伏产业主营业务稳步增长, 财
务绩效有所改善。股票市场光伏板块平均市盈率较高，以传统市盈
率评价光伏产业不同上市公司的投资价值不尽合理，而通过财务指
标综合评价结果——综合指数修正后的综合市盈率，可以对光伏产
业上市公司的投资价值做出合理的评价。评价结果表明：综合市盈
率较低的福斯特、南玻 A、东方日升、隆基股份、林洋能源、亿晶
光电等股票具有相对较高的投资价值
关键词：光伏产业上市公司、投资价值分析、主成分分析法、
熵权法、综合指数、综合市盈率
论文类型：应用基础研究II
ANALYSIS ON INVESTMENT VALUE OF
LISTED COMPANIES IN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY
——BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF
COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL EVALUATION INDEX
ABSTRACT
With the growing global energy situation, solar photovoltaic power generation as a
sustainable alternative to traditional energy, in recent years has been rapid
development. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market solar photovoltaic has become a
hot plate, the ups and downs of the photovoltaic industry, the development of listed
companies not only with the industry&39;s vigorous development, but also for investors
to bring a lot of investment opportunities, but also inevitably there is investment risk ,
Especially the development of domestic photovoltaic enterprises over-reliance on
policy support, investors are also very concerned about whether the photovoltaic
industry has investment value.
Based on the financial report of listed companies in PV industry from 2013 to 2015,
this paper chooses the appropriate financial indicators to construct the investment
value evaluation index system. The advantages and disadvantages and adaptability of
principal component analysis and entropy method are analyzed, and the main
exponential factors are analyzed by principal component analysis combined with two
kinds of analysis methods. On this basis, to determine the main component of a
comprehensive analysis of the target weight, combined with the photovoltaic
industry listed companies in the stock price-earnings ratio, the investment value of
the individual stocks to provide investors with a reasonable investment reference.
The main conclusion of this paper is: in recent years, China&39;s PV industry, the main
business growth, financial performance has improved. Stock market PV plate
average price-earnings ratio is higher, the traditional P / E evaluation of photovoltaic
industry, the value of the investment of different listed companies is not reasonable,
and through the comprehensive evaluation of financial indicators - comprehensive
index revised after the comprehensive price-earnings ratio, the photovoltaic industry
listed companies Value to make a reasonable evaluation. The results show that the
composite price of Foster, CSG A, Dongfang Sunrise, Longji shares, Linyang
Energy and Billion Crystal Optoelectronics has a relatively high investment value.
KEY WORD：PV industry listed companies;Investment value analysis;Principal
component analysis;Entropy method;Composite index;Comprehensive price -
earnings ratio
TYPE OF DISSERTATION/THESIS: Application Fundamentals浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 光伏产业上市公司投资价值分析
III
目 录
1 绪论 ..1
1.1 研究背景 ....1
1.2 研究的目的与意义 ........1
1.3 研究内容与论文框架 ......2
1.4 研究方法 ....3
1.5 可能的创新点 4
2 基本概念、理论和文献综述.......5
2.1 企业价值与企业投资价值的基本概念 ....5
2.1.1 企业价值的含义.....5
2.1.2 企业投资价值的含义.5
2.2 投资价值分析的理论和方法 6
2.2.1 上市公司投资价值分析的理论基础.6
2.2.2 上市公司投资价值分析的方法.....7
2.3 影响企业投资价值的主要因素 ..........7
2.3.1 宏观层面相关影响因素 ...........7
2.3.2 中观层面相关影响因素 ...........8
2.3.3 微观层面相关影响因素 ...........9
2.4 国内外研究综述 .........10
2.4.1 国外学者对投资价值分析的研究综述..........10
2.4.2 国外学者对光伏产业发展的研究综述..........11
2.4.3 国内学者对投资价值分析的研究综述..........12
2.4.4 国内学者对光伏产业发展的研究综述..........12
3 光伏产业及其上市公司概况...... 15
3.1 光伏产业的定义与分类....15
3.2 国内光伏产业发展现状及特点..........16
3.2.1 国内光伏产业发展现状..........16
3.2.2 我国光伏产业发展特点..........18
3.3 光伏产业上市公司概况及其市场表现分析 ...........19
3.3.1 A 股市场光伏产业上市公司概况 ..19
3.3.2 光伏板块的市场表现分析........20
3.3.3 光伏产业前景分析 ..25浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 光伏产业上市公司投资价值分析
IV
4 投资价值分析指标体系的构建.... 27
4.1 指标体系构建的必要性与原则 .........27
4.1.1 指标体系构建的必要性..........27
4.1.2 选择评价指标的原则27
4.2 投资价值分析的指标选取 .28
4.2.1 偿债能力指标......28
4.2.2 运营能力指标......28
4.2.3 盈利能力指标......29
4.2.4 发展能力指标......29
4.3 指标权重的确定方法 .....30
4.4 财务指标的评价 .........31
4.4.1 偿债能力指标的评价31
4.4.2 运营能力指标的评价32
4.4.3 盈利能力指标的评价 32
4.4.4 发展能力指标的评价 33
5 主成分分析法与熵权法..........37
5.1 主成分分析法 ...........37
5.1.1 主成分分析法（PCA）的基本原理.37
5.1.2 主成分分析法的意义38
5.2 熵权法 .....38
5.2.1 熵权法基本原理....38
5.2.2 使用熵权法的意义..39
5.3 两种方法相结合的综合评价方法 .......39
5.3.1 原始指标的选取....40
5.3.2 主成分分析前提检验 40
5.3.3 新指标的建立......41
5.3.4 利用熵权法综合分析41
6 投资价值分析指标的综合评价.... 43
6.1 数据的获取 .43
6.2 主成分分析 .43
6.2.1 建立原始财务数据矩阵..........43
6.2.2 原始数据矩阵条件检验..........46
6.2.3 确定公共因子数量..47
6.2.4 因子旋转与主成分得分..........48
6.3 熵权法综合分析 .........51浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 光伏产业上市公司投资价值分析
V
7 分析结果与投资建议57
7.1 光伏产业上市公司投资价值分析结果 ...57
7.2 投资建议 ...58
7.3 研究结论 ...60
参考文献 ...........61
附 录 ..65
致 谢
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