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摘 要
自 2008 年全球金融危机爆发以来，先是金融行业的危机，美国、英国多家银
行，投资机构破产倒闭，紧接着金融行业的危机蔓延到实体经济，世界范围内的
实体经济衰退，美国，欧洲，日本等大国和地区经济一蹶不振，GDP 增长缓慢，
甚至负增长，失业率升高，社会不稳定因素增加。连带着新兴国家的经济也遭受
巨大影响，我国企业大量破产，特别是沿海地区的制造业大量破产，企业失去订
单，最终企业家失去自己的企业，成批成批工人失去工作，从沿海地区返回自己
的家乡。制造业作为一个国家经济建设发展的基础，它的稳定发展至关重要，而
上市制造业企业的财务状况与企业的发展息息相关。本文主要研究 A 股市场制造
行业财务稳定情况及财务预警模型。

全文总共分为五部分。第一章介绍了研究背景和研究内容与结构，说明中国
制造业的发展对于国家经济的重要作用，强调分析制造业财务稳定及研究制造业
财务预警的意义，并且对财务危机的内涵作了界定。第二章主要介绍财务危机理
论与参数模型方法。财务危机理论主要介绍灾害理论和斯科特的四个理论模型。

参数模型中主要介绍了一元判断分析模型、多元判断分析模型和 Logistic 模型及
各个模型的优点和局限性。在第二章的最后介绍了本文建模过程中使用到的一种
统计方法主成分分析法。第三章主要介绍了制造业上市企业现状及财务危机成因，
分析了我国制造上市企业财务危机的特点，并且主要分析财务危机企业与财务正
常企业在财务指标上的区别。第四章是针对我国制造上市企业建立财务危机预警
Logistic 模型，首先对样本进行选择，然后针对制造行业选择财务指标，本文选
取的指标为 F 分数模型中取值的指标，然后利用显著性检验和多重共线性检验，
所选指标通过了显著性检验，但所选取指标之间存在多重共线性，利用主成分分
析解决多重共线性，求出主成分后再基于主成分进行 Logistic 模型回归，建立全
新我国制造行业的 Logistic 模型，最后对新建的 Logistic 模型进行检验，检验模
型的预测准确度及预测能力。第五章总结了新设计的 Logistic 模型的优缺点，分
析了新模型的优点和局限性，并且对后续的研究提出了相关建议，进行了展望。

关键词：制造业；财务预警；Logistic 模型；F 模型ABSTRACT
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, first the financial industry crisis, the us,
the UK Banks, investment firms have failed, and then the financial sector crisis spread
to the real economy, the world within the scope of the real economy recession, the
United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions economic collapse, GDP
growth is slow, or even negative growth, higher unemployment, increased social
instability factors. Combined with emerging economies have also suffered huge
impact, of bankruptcy of enterprises in our country, especially in the coastal areas of
manufacturing a large number of bankruptcy, companies lose orders, losing their
business entrepreneurs, batch batch workers lost their jobs, and from coastal areas to
return to their hometown. Manufacturing industry as the basis for the development of
a country's economic construction, it is essential to the steady development, and listed
the financial position of the manufacturing enterprise is closely related to the
development of the enterprise. This paper mainly studies the a-share market
manufacturing industry financial stability and financial early warning model.
The full essay is divided into five parts. The first chapter introduces the research
background and research content and structure, indicates that the development of
China's manufacturing industry in national economy, the importance of stress analysis
of manufacturing the meaning of financial stability and financial early warning
research manufacturing, and to define the connotation of the financial crisis. The
second chapter mainly introduces the method of parameter model and the theory of
the financial crisis. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory and
Scott's four theoretical model. Parameters in the model mainly introduced a dollar
judgment analysis model, multiple judgment analysis model and Logistic model, and
the advantages and limitations of each model. At the end of the second chapter
introduces the modeling process in this paper to use a statistical method of principal
component analysis (pca). The third chapter mainly introduces the present situation of
manufacturing industry listed companies, and financial crisis causes, analyzed the
characteristics of manufacturing listed companies financial crisis in China, and
mainly analyzes the enterprise financial crisis and financial normal difference on
financial indicators. The fourth chapter is aimed at our country manufacturing listed
companies to establish a financial crisis early warning and Logistic model, first to
select samples, and then to choose the financial indicators in manufacturing industry,
this article selects the indexes for the F score values of indicators in the model, then
using the significance test and multicollinearity test, the selected indicators have
passed the test of significance, but the multicollinearity between the selected
indicators, using principal component analysis to solve the multicollinearity, and the
principal component after Logistic regression model based on principal component, a