 ==>> 点击下载文档 |
立足于目前中小型股份制商业银行面临的危机与挑战，此研究旨在构建一个专
门针对于中小型股份制商业银行财务危机的预警系统。在借鉴了国内外以往关于银
行危机预警指标与模型的基础上，首先分析了中小型股份制商业银行财务危机的特
点、分类及形成原因，接着构建了中小型股份制商业银行财务危机预警指标体系
指标体系分为财务指标和非财务指标。财务指标包括资本充足、资产质量、流动性、
偿债能力与盈利能力五个方面；非财务指标包括偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力与
内部控制四个方面。应用因子分析法对我国 2011-2015 年的 8 家上市的中小型股份
制商业银行的财务指标数据进行了分析，得到了各商业银行的财务综合评分情况，
在此基础上结合物元可拓模型建立了财务危机预警模型；使用层次分析法与模糊综
合评价法构建了非财务指标财务危机预警模型。最终建立了结合财务指标与非财务
指标的财务危机预警模型，并针对存在的问题提出了建议，最后得出了结论，且展
望了未来研究方向
图 4 幅；表 26 个；参 60 篇
关键词：中小型股份制商业银行；财务危机；预警系统；财务指标；非财务指标
分类号：F275华北理工大学硕士学位论文
- II -
Abstract
In recent years, China has been in a period of rapid social transformation. Along
with the development of economy and finance, financial markets, financial
disintermediation, financial derivatives into the market, accelerating the process of
financial deepening and booming Internet banking, small and medium-sized joint-stock
commercial bank&39;s financial intermediary status relatively decline. With the reform of
market-oriented interest rate and the implementation of the deposit insurance system, to
our country small and medium-sized joint-stock commercial bank also have a major
impact. By combining the reality of our country, making a research on the small and
medium-sized joint-stock commercial bank financial crisis warning system, which is not
only a theoretical warning, but also has a realistic regulation significance.
Based on the crisis and challenges of the small and medium-sized joint-stock
commercial bank, this research aims to build a special financial crisis warning system for
them.Learn form home and abroad about bank crisis early warning index and model, this
research first analyzes characteristics, classification and formation reasons of 8 banks
financial crisis, then build the financial crisis early warning index system. The index
system is divided into financial indicators and non-financial indicators. Financial
indicators include five aspects of capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, solvency and
profitability; Non-financial indicators include four aspects of debt ability, operation
ability, profit ability and the internal control. Financial comprehensive score of 8 banks is
obtained because of the application of factor analysis of the financial indicators data of
2011-2015 in 8 banks, on the basis of matter-element model to establish the financial
crisis warning model; by using AHP and FCE method, the non-financial indicators of
financial crisis early warning model is established. Finally, a financial crisis early
warning model combining the two indexes is established and puts forward some
suggestions, draws the conclusion and prospects future research direction.
Figure4; Table26; Reference 60.
Keywords: small and medium-sized joint-stock commercial banks, financial crisis, early
warning system, financial indicators, non-financial indicators
Chinese books catalog: F275目 次
- III -
目 次
引 言1
第 1 章 绪论......2
1.1 研究背景及意义..........2
1.1.1 研究背景2
1.1.2 研究意义2
1.2 财务危机预警系统国内外研究现状..3
1.2.1 预警指标体系建立的研究........3
1.2.2 预警模型建立的研究....5
1.2.3 文献研究现状述评........7
1.3 研究方法与内容..........8
1.4 创新点..9
1.5 技术路线........11
第 2 章 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机预警理论基础....12
2.1 中小型股份制商业银行概念界定....12
2.2 财务危机的界定........13
2.3 财务危机预警系统界定及相关理论14
第 3 章 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机特点及分类........16
3.1 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机特点........16
3.1.1 中小型股份制商业银行与其他企业财务危机的区别..........16
3.1.2 上市中小型股份制商业银行与非上市中小型股份制商业银行财务
危机的区别16
3.2 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机的分类....17
3.2.1 中小型股份制商业银行资本危机......17
3.2.2 中小型股份制商业银行资产安全危机..........17
3.2.3 中小型股份制商业银行流动性危机..18
3.2.4 中小型股份制商业银行盈利性危机..18
第 4 章 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机预警系统构建....20
4.1 财务危机预警指标的构建....20华北理工大学硕士学位论文
- IV -
4.1.1 财务危机预警指标构建的原则..........20
4.1.2 财务危机预警指标的分类......20
4.1.3 财务危机预警指标的分析与筛选......21
4.2 财务危机预警的分析方法....27
4.2.1 因子分析法......27
4.2.2 物元可拓模型..27
4.2.3 层次分析法......30
4.2.4 模糊综合评价法..........31
第 5 章 中小型股份制商业银行财务危机预警实证研究....34
5.1 财务指标财务危机预警模型的建立34
5.1.1 因子分析..........34
5.1.2 物元可拓模型财务危机预警..38
5.2 非财务指标财务危机预警模型的建立......
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看
