摘要
随着国内经济日趋一体化、区域化的发展,区域内的货物、人员、技术、资
金、服务、信息的自由流动的要求也越来越高,港口城市的区域经济和港口物流
都是复杂动态的系统,研究二者之间的影响关系不仅仅是一对一的分析,还需要
用系统的角度,研究二者之间存在的互相依赖、相互影响的辩证关系
基于这样的关系,本文通过分析区域经济和港口物流各要素之间的关系,运
用系统动力学的理论建立分析模型,为今后研究港口物流与经济发展的深层次的
问题提供了研究思路。并以大连的港口及地区经济为实例进行分析,根据模拟结
果对大连地区经济和港口物流的发展和建设提出一些合理化建议
本文主要研究港口物流与区域经济之间的互动发展关系。对于港口物流与区
域经济的研究,相关领域专家的关注点主要偏重于宏观和微观两个层面,而对于
中间层面的研究相对较少。本文立足于港口物流与区域经济,对二者之间的关系
进入深入研究。一方面肯定了港口物流各要素对区域经济的促进作用,另一方面
对二者之间的内在机制和规律进行了深入剖析,用定量的方法探求了区域经济发
展与港口物流的关联度以及互相的影响程度
然后在定性分析的基础上,引入了系统动;^学模型,对港口物流与区域经济
发展的关系进行了量化分析,运用系统动力学方法中的因果关系流图,梳理了两
者之间存在的多种相互作用因素,在此基础上研究二者之间的相互作用机制,并
采用系统流图的方法定量地描述了二者间的发展趋势。基于大连地区的历史数据,
对该区域内的GDP、人口、就业情况及港口吞吐量进行了预测的示例分析,最终
验证了该模型的有效性
关键词:港口物流:区域经济;互动;系统动力学
ABSTRACT
With domestic economy becoming more to regional and integration,regional
development of goods and staff,technology,capital,sCTvices,and information on the
requirements of the free flow of more and more is also high. The elements mentioned
above and drives the free low of main motivation is infrastructure and particularly
port logistics infrastructure.
Therefore, the development of regional economy needs a strong comprehensive
port logistics system for support. Therefore, the comprehensive port logistics system
and regional economic development both exist interdependence, mutual influence of
the dialectical relationship between.
Study integrated port logistics system and the development of regional economic
relationship between. Based on the comprehensive port logistics across downtown
area with regional economy to the relationship between the two, in-depth research: on
one hand affirmed the traffic on the regional economic promoting effect on,on the
other hand,between the internal mechanism and laws of were analyzed and quantify
approach explores the regional economic development and volume of traffic of the
association and changes in the effect of regional economic development.
This paper takes the system dynamics metiiodology causal relationship between
flow chart, analyzes the existing multiple interaction factors, based on this study title
interaction mechanism between them, and taking the system flow graph describes
the method of quantitative between development trend Based oil the historical data
of pearl river delta, the region's GDP, population, employment and traffic analysis,
and ultimately to predict examples prove the validity of the model.
Key Words: Economic development; Port lo咏tics; Internal mechanism
System dynamics