本研究以经济的周期性理论为基础，以企业的项目投资为切入点，结合海运产业生
命周期理论和海运产业现实状况，聚焦大宗干散货海运行业，运用 SWOT 分析、归纳
演绎等方法进行研究。首先，在国际干散货市场方面，通过分析海上货物运输产业的发
展历程、地位和作用，并结合企业的现状，运用 SWOT 分析产业优势、劣势、面临的
机遇和威胁，论证得出在目前的国际市场环境下，企业扩大船队规模、延长产业链的可
行性。其次，从项目具体实施方面，通过对行业历史数据分析，得出影响投资购置船舶
的关键因素和重要节点，找出适合珠江海运公司购船项目实施的路径和模式，从船舶选
择和营运模式方面论证可行性；最后，对航次租船和期租营运模式下船队营运效益进行
测算，从经济效益方面论证项目可行性。
通过以上论证，得出本文结论：目前的国际市场形势适合发展干散货船队项目，珠
江海运公司以 2850 万美元/艘的价格，订造新的三艘 76000 载重吨的巴拿马型干散货船，
投入国际海运市场，预期有较好的收益率。
关键词：干散货海运；BDI 指数；SWOT 分析
Abstract
This thesis mainly demonstrates the feasibility of the project that the Pearl River Ocean
Shipping Co.Ltd. purchase dry bulk ships. It is analyses include: From the international dry
bulk market, whether the current environment is suitable for the project; In the process of
project implementation, how to choose the operating mode of the Dry bulk ships and ships;
What economic benefits can it bring. At the same time, in the late financial crisis times, it
provides references for shipping enterprise with the same style about overcoming difficulties,
searching chances among crisis, and finding a lasting healthy development load.
This article uses SWOT analysis and deduction to expound ideas, basing on the
economic periodic theory, with point-cut of enterprises’ project investment, combining life
periodic theory and practical condition of shipping industry, focusing on big dry bulk shipping
trade. The article follows the principle of raising problems, analyzing problems, and solving
problems, which link with each other and layer upon layer. First, in the respect of
international dry bulk market, it analyzes the history, position and impact of carriage of goods
by sea, combining the practical condition, and points out the feasibility of enterprise
transformation and upgrading and extending industrial chain, using SWOT to analyze the
superiority, inferior position and chances and threaten faced with. Secondly, in the respect of
project’s concrete implement, we find out the key factors and important node which influence
ships purchasing most through analyzing historical data and compared data of the enterprise.
So we find out the implementing way and mode of the Pearl River purchasing ships projects,
which can demonstrates the feasibility of the project through the selecting and operating mode
of the ship. Finally, we measure the fleet operational efficiency in the voyage charter and time
charter operation mode.
It can be concluded from the above argument that the current international market now is
suitable for the development of dry bulk fleet project. And it will have better yield if the Pearl
River shipping company customized three Panamax dry bulk carriers of 76000 ton at the price
of 28.5 million dollars.
Key words: dry bulk shipping; BDI index; SWOT analysis
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