摘 要
我国棉花的生产，贸易和使用量目前已经全球第一。2010 年至
2011 年棉花价格经历了过山车般的起伏，如此巨幅地价格波动给中
国纺织产业链上下游企业的经营带来了很大不确定性。怎样才能规避
棉花价格的波动给纺织企业带来的风险呢？有效地运用棉花期货市
场进行套期保值，不但可以降低纺织企业的经营风险，还为企业增效
益、快发展带来了新的思路。自 2004 年 6 月 1 日棉花期货在郑州商
品交易所开始交易以来，棉花期货已经在我国的经济运行和纺织行业
的中发展起到了举足轻重的作用。本文对我国纺织行业的整体运营情
况、棉花价格波动因素进行了深入分析，并利用相关计量经济学工具：
如相关性、数据平稳性、协整关系检验等对我国棉花期货市场、现货
市场的价格进行了研究；给纺织企业如何准确地判断棉花价格走势，
有效地运用棉花期货市场进行套期保值提出了建议，为纺织企业控制
风险、更好地发展提供借鉴。

关键字：纺织企业，棉花期货，套期保值，棉花价格
ABSTRACT
China has the largest cotton production, usage and trading volume in
the world. The cotton price fluctuated fiercely and dramatically in the
year 2010/2011, which introduced a lot of uncertainties to textile
industries in China. How can we hedge the risks caused by the big
votality of cotton price Efficient use of cotton futures could not only
minimize these risks but also provide new ideas for textile companies to
enhance profit and speed up development. This essay did thorough
research on the main aspects which influences cotton price; collected
cotton price in spot& future market and studied the relations of these two
price series by using econometric models like ADF unit root test,
co-integration test etc. and provided practical and effective hedging
suggestions to textile companies.
KEY WORDS: textile industry, cotton futures, spot price, hedge