税收竞争对碳排放的影响研究
——基于中国省际面板数据的SDM-FE 实证分析
Research on the impact of tax competition on carbon emissions
——Empirical Analysis of SDM-FE
Based on China's Provincial panel data
隋瀚锐
Hanrui Sui
分类号密级
U D C 编号
硕士学位论文
学位论文题目：税收竞争对碳排放的影响研究
——基于中国省际面板数据的SDM-FE 实证分析
姓名隋瀚锐
学号2021212133
学院财经研究院
学位类别：学术硕士□专业硕士□同等学力
学科专业区域经济学
指导教师李向军副研究员
第二导师
提交论文日期：2023年5月20日
摘要
在双碳目标的背景下，从省域地方政府的税收竞争行为践行“碳达峰”与“碳中和”
的中国承诺，对于我国走低碳经济的绿色发展之路具有重大意义。鉴于此，本文基于
2003-2020年我国30个省份（不含西藏和港澳台）的相关数据构建时间和空间双向固定
效应的空间杜宾模型，从政府行为的税收竞争视角为我国的降碳减排工作提供可行机制。
首先，本文从官员晋升理论、环境联邦主义理论及外部性理论视角对税收竞争对碳
排放的影响进行了理论层面的分析，并提出本文研究的3个假设。其次，本文通过借鉴
前人研究选择碳排放数据核算方法并构建税收竞争指数指标，深入剖析各省税收竞争和
碳排放的空间分布特征和时间变化趋势。再次，本文利用LM 检验、Wald 检验及LR 检
验对模型进行识别，最终确立构建时间和个体双固定的空间杜宾模型，在分析省级政府
税收竞争对本地碳排放影响的基础上，进一步分析其空间溢出作用效果。最后，从区域
角度，检验省级地方政府税收竞争对碳排放的作用效果在东部地区和中西部地区的异质
性。因此本文研究的创新点主要体现在将地方政府竞争重要表现形式的税收竞争剥离出
来，单独研究其对碳排放的影响，并深入剖析税收竞争对碳排放影响的空间溢出效应。
本文实证研究主要得到以下结论：（1）从时空分布特征来看，我国四大地区的整体
碳排放出现收敛现象，但西部地区的人均碳排放量居多，应在相应政策中重点关注西部
地区的碳排放情况。（2）从莫兰检验结果来看，我国省域碳排放量存在高高集聚与低低
集聚的空间依赖性，一个省份碳排放的表现会通过示范与扩散效应反馈到相邻省份的碳
排放。（3）从时空双向固定效应空间杜宾模型的空间分解结果来看，我国地方政府税收
竞争对人均碳排放的影响表现为“趋劣竞争”，本地区的税收竞争对该地的人均碳排放
量存在显著的正向影响且邻近地区的税收竞争行为对本地的人均碳排放量也存在显著
的正向空间溢出效果。（4）从异质性分析结果来看，我国省域地方政府的税收竞争行为
对碳排放影响的直接效应在东部地区和中西部地区呈现异质性，主要表现为东部地区省
级地方政府的税收竞争行为能在一定程度上达到本省碳减排的作用效果，而中西部地区
呈现相反的作用效果。（5）从控制变量对碳排放的作用效果来看，经济发展水平、对外
开放程度、产业结构、能源消耗、城市化率水平等多维要素均对省域人均碳排放量存在
空间溢出作用效果。
综上，本文从规范省域地区间的税收竞争行为、搭建省域碳排放治理联动机制、关
注中西部省级地方政府的税收竞争情况、优化政绩考核标准体系方面提出了建议。
关键词：税收竞争；碳排放；空间溢出效应；
I
ABSTRACT
In the context of the dual-carbon goal,it is of great meaning to implement China's promise
of carbon peak and carbon neutral from the tax competition actions of provincial and regional
local governments to enable China to take the green development path of low-carbon economy.
In view of this,this paper,based on the relevant data of 30provinces in China (excluding Tibet,
Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2003to 2020,constructs the SDM model of time and
space two-way fixed effects,and provides a feasible mechanism for China's carbon reduction
and emission reduction work from the perspective of tax competition of government behavior.
First of all,this paper theoretically analyzes the impact of tax competition on carbon
emissions from the perspective of official promotion theory,environmental federalism theory
and externality theory,and proposes three hypotheses for this study.Secondly,this paper builds
the tax competition and carbon emissions measurement indicators by using the previous
research,and deeply analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics and time change trend of
tax competition and carbon emissions in each province.Thirdly,this paper uses LM test,Wald
test and LR test to identify the model,and finally establish a spatial Dubin model with fixed
time and individual.On the basis of analyzing the impact of provincial government tax
competition on local carbon emissions,this paper further analyzes the spatial spillover impact
of the impact of tax competition on carbon emissions.Finally,from a regional perspective,the
paper examines the heterogeneity of the effect of provincial local government tax competition
on carbon emissions in the eastern and central and western regions.Therefore,the innovation
of this paper mainly lies in separating the important manifestation of local government
competition,tax competition,and studying its impact on carbon emissions separately,and
deeply analyzing the spatial spillover effect of tax competition on carbon emissions.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)From the perspective of
spatiotemporal distribution,the overall carbon emissions in the four major regions of China
have converged,but the per capita carbon emissions in the western region are the majority.
Therefore,the carbon emissions in the western region should be focused on in the
corresponding policies.(2)From the results of Moran test,there is a spatial dependence between
high and low concentration of carbon emissions in China's provinces.The performance of a
province's carbon emissions will be fed back to the carbon emissions of neighboring provinces
through demonstration and diffusion effects.(3)From the spatial decomposition results of
II
SDM-FE model,the impact of local government tax competition on carbon emissions in China
is shown as "inferior competition".The tax competition in this region has a significant positive
impact on the per capita carbon emissions in this region,and the tax competition in neighboring
regions has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the per capita carbon emissions in
this region.(4)From the results of heterogeneity analysis,the direct effect of the tax competition
behavior of provincial local governments on carbon emissions in China is heterogeneous in the
eastern region and the central and western regions.The main performance is that the tax
competition behavior of provincial local governments in the eastern region can achieve the
effect of carbon emissions reduction in the province to a certain extent,while the central and
western regions have the opposite effect.(5)In terms of the effects of control variables on
carbon emissions,multidimensional factors such as the level of economic development,the
degree of openness to the outside world,industrial structure,energy consumption,and the level
of urbanization rate all have spatial overflow effects on provincial per capita carbon emissions.
To sum up,this paper puts forward suggestions from regulating the tax competition
behavior between provinces and regions,building the linkage mechanism of provincial carbon
emission governance,paying attention to the tax competition of provincial local governments
in the central and western regions,optimizing the performance evaluation standard system.
Keywords：tax competition；carbon emission；spatial spillover effects；
III