硕士学位论文
碳达峰目标下中国省际碳排放权分配结果的不确定性研究
学号107242021200069
作者姓名郭鹏
指导教师曾倩教授
专业领域应用经济学
培养单位经济金融学院
2024年6月
西安外国语大学
硕士学位论文
题目：碳达峰目标下中国省际碳排放
权分配结果的不确定性研究
姓名：郭鹏
学科专业：应用经济学
指导教师：曾倩
2024年6月
INTER-PROVINCIAL CARBON EMISSION ALLOCATION
UNCERTAINTY STUDY IN CHINA UNDER THE CARBON PEAK
TARGET
by
XX
A Thesis
Submitted to the Graduate School
of Xi’an International Studies University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF ECONOMY
in
Applied Economics
Xi’an,China
2024
摘要中国政府承诺2030年前实现碳达峰，为此全国各地都在为该减排目标努力。如何
将总量目标分配到各省级单位是当前减排工作面临的重大难题。另外，不同的分配方
案和碳达峰路径会使分配结果出现差异性。因此，探究合理的碳排放权分配方案以及
降低不确定性影响对于实现碳达峰目标具有积极意义。
基于碳达峰的减排目标，首先，在公平原则下使用投入产出方法得到省际碳排放
权的公平方案，效率原则下使用零和博弈数据包络法得到效率方案，综合原则下使用
熵值法得到综合方案，并使用超效率数据包络方法比较三种分配方案的减排成本，进
而甄选最优的省际碳排放权分配方案。其次，针对不同原则下的分配方案，从最值、标
准差等方面测算其分配结果的不确定性。再次，对中国碳排放进行因素分解，并针对不
同的碳达峰路径进行预测，探究不同路径下中国省际碳排放权分配结果的不确定性。
研究表明：①在三种分配方案中，采用熵值法计算的综合方案结果可兼顾公平性
和效率性。从减排成本角度而言，综合性分配方案的减排成本最小，更容易被多数省份
接受。②不同原则的分配方案下各省的碳排放权分配结果具有差异性。③基于基准情
景、绿色情景以及技术进步三种情景下的碳达峰路径不同，导致各省碳排放权分配结
果不同。
关键词：省际碳排放权分配；公平性原则；效率性原则；综合性原则；不确定性
I
Abstract
ABSTRACT
The Chinese government has committed to achieving carbon peak before 2030,and all
parts of the country are working towards this emission reduction target.How to allocate the
total amount target to provincial units is a major challenge facing current emission reduction
work.In addition,different allocation schemes and carbon peak pathways can lead to
differences in allocation results.Therefore,exploring a reasonable allocation plan for carbon
emission rights and reducing the impact of uncertainty is of positive significance for achieving
carbon peak goals.
Based on the carbon peak emission reduction target,firstly,the input-output model is
used under the principle of fairness to obtain a fair plan for inter provincial carbon emission
rights.Under the principle of efficiency,the zero sum game data envelopment model is used
to obtain the efficiency plan.Under the comprehensive principle,the entropy method is used
to obtain the comprehensive plan.The super efficiency data envelopment model is used to
compare the emission reduction costs of the three allocation plans,and then the optimal inter
provincial carbon emission rights allocation plan is selected.Secondly,for allocation schemes
under different principles,measure the uncertainty of their allocation results from the aspects
of maximum value,standard deviation,etc.Once again,decompose the factors of China's
carbon emissions and predict different carbon peak paths,exploring the uncertainty of inter
provincial carbon emission rights allocation results in China under different paths.
The study has shown that among the three allocation schemes,the comprehensive scheme
calculated using the entropy method can balance fairness and efficiency.From the perspective
of emission reduction costs,the comprehensive allocation plan has the smallest emission
reduction cost and is more easily accepted by most provinces The distribution results of carbon
emission rights vary among provinces under different principles of allocation schemes The
different carbon peak paths based on benchmark scenarios,green scenarios,and technological
progress scenarios result in different carbon emission allocation results in different provinces.
KEY WORDS:Interprovincial carbon emission rights allocation;Fairness principle;
Efficiency principle;Comprehensiveness principle;Uncertainty
II