密级：公开中图分类号：F062.9
硕士学位论文
论文题目：物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级的影响研究
——兼论数字技术的调节效应
作者姓名：林青媛
学科专业：产业经济学
研究方向：流通产业与政策管理
指导教师：杜丹清
提交日期：2023年1月
Dissertation Submitted to Zhejiang Gongshang University for
Master’s Degree of Economics
Research on the impact of logistics industry agglomeration on
manufacturing transformation and upgrading
——Also discuss the moderating effect of digital technology
Author：Lin Qingyuan
Major：Industrial Economics
Supervisor：Du Danqing
Jan.2023
School of Economics
Zhejiang Gongshang University
Hangzhou,310018,P.R.China
物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级的影响研究——兼论数字技术的调节效应
摘要
制造业作为我国的支柱产业，近年来面临成本优势流失和发达国家“再工业化”的
双重挑战，亟需转型升级。物流产业与制造业关系紧密，对制造业发展起着支撑作用，
随着物流产业集聚现象日益普遍，物流产业集聚产生的经济效应日益受到关注。本文研
究了物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级的影响，重点关注两者之间的关系结构，剖析了其
非线性关系的形成及内在机制，并在进一步分析中以当前背景下数字经济的注入作为两
者关系的调节点，分析数字技术对两者关系产生的调节效应。
本文在梳理相关领域基本理论及已有研究基础上，从时空演变、国际国内等多个角
度剖析了物流产业、制造业发展现状，就物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级影响的动态演
进过程展开分析，并且引入数字技术作为两者关系的调节变量，撷取了284个地级及以
上城市2010—2019年的面板数据进行实证分析，分别采用引入解释变量的二次项的双
向固定效应模型，中介效应模型以及调节效应模型对文章的理论假设进行检验。
基于上述理论和实证研究，本文得到以下结论：第一，物流产业集聚和制造业转型
升级之间存在显著的倒“U”型关系，二者之间存在最佳集聚点；第二，物流产业集聚
可通过影响资源配置效率进而对制造业转型升级产生作用；第三，物流产业集聚对制造
业转型升级的影响存在区域以及城市规模的异质性，其中，东部地区的物流产业集聚对
制造业转型升级存在促进作用，中西部地区的物流产业集聚与制造业转型升级呈现倒
“U”型关系；大城市的物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级产生促进作用，中、小城市的
物流产业集聚与制造业转型升级呈现倒“U”型关系；第四，数字技术的应用对两者关
系具有调节效应，可以缓解物流产业集聚的拥挤效应，正向调节物流产业集聚与制造业
转型升级之间的倒“U”型关系，总体使物流产业集聚表现出对制造业转型升级更为稳
定且持续的促进作用。在上述理论与实证研究的基础上，本文提出相应的对策建议。
关键词：物流产业集聚；制造业转型升级；非线性关系；数字技术调节
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物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级的影响研究——兼论数字技术的调节效应
Abstract
Manufacturing industry,as the pillar industry of China,has faced the double challenge of
losing cost advantages and "reindustrialization"of developed countries in recent years,and
needs the transformation and upgrading.The logistics industry is closely related to the
manufacturing industry and plays a supporting role in the development of the manufacturing
industry.With the increasing popularity of the logistics industry agglomeration,the economic
effect of the logistics industry agglomeration has attracted increasing attention.This paper
studies the logistics industrial agglomeration effect on manufacturing industry transformation
and upgrading,focus on the relationship between the structure,this paper analyzes the
formation and the nonlinear relationship between internal mechanism,and in the further
analysis to the current context of the digital economy injection as control points,the
relationship analysis of digital technology on the relationship between the adjustment effect.
Based on combing the related basic theory and based on the existing research,from the
perspective of space-time evolution,such as the international and domestic multiple analyzed
the current situation of the development of logistics industry,manufacturing industry,the
logistics industry agglomeration effect on manufacturing industry transformation and
upgrading of the dynamic evolution process of analysis,and the introduction of digital
technology as the adjustment of the relationship between variables,The panel data of 284
prefecture-level cities and above from 2010to 2019were collected for empirical analysis.
Two-way fixed effect model with quadratic terms of explanatory variables,mediating effect
model and moderating effect model were used to test the theoretical hypotheses of the paper.
Based on the above theoretical and empirical research,this paper draws the following
conclusions:First,there is a significant inverted "U"-shaped relationship between logistics
industry agglomeration and manufacturing transformation and upgrading,and there is an
optimal agglomeration point between them.Secondly,the agglomeration of logistics industry
can affect the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry by affecting the
efficiency of resource allocation.Thirdly,the impact of logistics industry agglomeration on
manufacturing transformation and upgrading is heterogeneous in regions and city sizes.
Among them,the logistics industry agglomeration in the eastern region has a promoting effect
on manufacturing transformation and upgrading,while the logistics industry agglomeration in
the central and western regions has an inverted "U"-shaped relationship with manufacturing
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物流产业集聚对制造业转型升级的影响研究——兼论数字技术的调节效应
transformation and upgrading.The agglomeration of logistics industry in big cities can
promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry,and the relationship
between the agglomeration of logistics industry in small and medium cities and the
transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry shows an inverted "U"shape.
Fourthly,the application of digital technology has a moderating effect on the relationship
between the two,which can alleviate the crowding effect of logistics industry agglomeration,
positively regulate the inverted "U"-shaped relationship between logistics industry
agglomeration and manufacturing transformation and upgrading,and generally make the
logistics industry agglomeration show a more stable and sustained promoting effect on the
transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.On the basis of the above theoretical
and empirical research,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and
suggestions.
Keywords:logistics industry agglomeration;manufacturing transformation and upgrading;
non-linear relationship;digital technology regulation
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