密级:论文编号:
学位论文
我国农业成本保险的发展及优化策略研究
硕士研究生：吉利
学号：82101212487
指导教师：王克副研究员
申请学位类别：管理学硕士
专业：农业经济管理
研究方向：农村财政与金融
培养单位：农业信息研究所
研究生院
2024年6月
Secrecy:No.
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Thesis
Study on the development and optimization strategy of
agricultural cost insurance in China
Candidate:JI Li
Student ID:82101212487
Supervisor:Associate Professor WANG Ke
Degree Type:Master of Science in Agricultural
Economics and Management
Major:Agricultural Economics and
Management
Research Field:Rural Finance
Institution:Agricultural Information Institute
Graduate School
June 2024
摘要
当前，我国农业保险正在从粗放型发展向高质量发展转变，成本保险是我国政策性农
业保险的主要产品形态，发展初期保险金额原则上仅覆盖农作物或畜产品生产的直接物化
投入成本，存在保障水平低、“不解渴、不顶用”的问题。尽管近年来，我国政府持续推
进“扩面、提标、增品”，相继推出了农业大灾保险、完全成本保险和种植收入保险等新
的保险产品，试点范围不断扩大。但是，我国完全成本保险的设计理念依然是成本保险，
创新机制僵化，一味提高保额更是增加了政府财政补贴压力。放眼全球，产量保险是国际
的主流保险产品，保障机制灵活，能够有效地抵御市场风险，也为各国农业保险的发展提
供了重要方向和参考。
为对我国农业保险未来的产品升级提供参考和支持，本文对我国农业保险为什么采取
成本保险、成本保险的优劣以及可能的优化策略进行了研究。首先，介绍了全球农业保险
的发展概况与主要产品形态，回溯了我国农业保险产品形态的演变历史，廓清了我国农业
保险采取成本保险的底层逻辑；其次，以国际主流产量保险为参照，从产品设计角度对成
本保险的优势与劣势进行理论分析；再次，利用河南6县（市）玉米作物43年的历史单产
数据，采用数值模拟方法，借助MATLAB 等数理统计软件，从农户福利和保费补贴两方面
对成本保险和产量保险进行了量化比较；最后，以提升财政补贴资金利用效率、为农业产
业发展和农业强国建设提供稳健的风险保障为目标，提出优化我国成本保险的策略和建议。
本文得出如下结论：（1）自民国时期至2004年我国农业保险的探索过程中实践了成本
保险、价值保险、产量保险等多种产品形态，在保险公司解决高赔付问题、政府担心财政
补贴压力和农业生产条件等因素作用下，我国农业保险最终选择了物化成本保险的产品形
态；（2）成本保险的优势主要在于稳定的保额可以有效规避市场价格波动风险，为农户提
供稳健风险保障、保障生产成本既规避农户道德风险又促进及时恢复生产、低保额带来较
低的财政补贴压力。成本保险的劣势主要在于保成本机制僵化限制创新，并增加财政补贴
压力、保额缺乏弹性、分阶段赔付设计存在不合理性；（3）成本保险在提升农户福利方面
具有显著效果，但产量保险可以有效降低政府财政补贴压力；（4）针对上述成本保险的劣
势提出建立“基础险+补充险+商业险”的保险产品体系、完善成本保险合约设计、以及优
化成本保险保费补贴的央地责任的三点优化策略。
本文提出政策建议如下：一是继续保有物化成本保险，发展物化成本保险为普惠性保
险，降低农户保费的自缴比例；二是加大农业大省特别是商品粮调出大省保费补贴力度；
三是探索开展“产量保险”试点，优先考虑地方特色作物。
本文的创新之处主要体现在：一是从产品形态视角研究我国成本保险的起源、发展与
演变，弥补了成本保险理论溯源方面的空缺，拓展了农业保险历史的研究视角；二是通过
比较国际主流产量保险，清楚成本保险和其他保险产品的本质差异和优劣；三是就成本保
险在发展中国家和发达国家的实践情况进行阐述，丰富了国际关于成本保险的研究。
关键词：农业保险，成本保险，产量保险，历史演变，数值模拟
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Abstract
At present,China's agricultural insurance is changing from extensive development to high-
quality development,cost insurance is the main product form of China's policy-based agricultural
insurance,and the insurance amount in the early stage of development only covers the direct
physical input cost of crop or livestock product production in principle,and there is a low level of
protection,"no thirst,no top use"problem.Although in recent years,the Chinese government has
continued to promote "expanding coverage,upgrading standards,and increasing products",and has
successively launched new insurance products such as agricultural catastrophe insurance,full cost
insurance and planting income insurance,and the scope of the pilot project has been expanding.
However,the design concept of China's full cost insurance is still cost insurance,and the innovation
mechanism is rigid,and blindly increasing the amount of insurance has increased the pressure on
government financial subsidies.Looking at the world,output insurance is the mainstream insurance
product in the world,with a flexible protection mechanism,which can effectively resist market risks,
and also provides an important direction and reference for the development of agricultural insurance
in various countries.
In order to provide reference and support for the future product upgrading of agricultural
insurance in China,this paper studies why cost insurance is adopted in China's agricultural insurance,
the advantages and disadvantages of cost insurance,and possible optimization strategies.Firstly,the
development of global agricultural insurance and the main product forms are introduced,the
evolution history of China's agricultural insurance products is traced,and the underlying logic of
cost insurance in China's agricultural insurance is clarified;secondly,the advantages and
disadvantages of cost insurance are theoretically analyzed from the perspective of product design
with reference to the international mainstream yield insurance;thirdly,the cost insurance and yield
insurance are quantitatively compared from the aspects of farmers'welfare and premium subsidies
by using the historical yield data of maize crops in 6counties (cities)of Henan Province in 43years,
with the help of mathematical statistical software such as MATLAB；finally,the utilization
efficiency of financial subsidy funds is improvedWith the goal of providing stable risk protection
for the development of agricultural industry and the construction of an agricultural power,the
strategies and suggestions for optimizing China's cost insurance are proposed.
This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)from the Republic of China to 2004,in the
process of exploration of China's agricultural insurance,a variety of product forms such as insurance,
value insurance,and yield insurance have been practiced,and under the influence of factors such as
insurance companies solving the problem of high claims,the government worrying about the
pressure of financial subsidies and agricultural production conditions,China's agricultural insurance
finally chose the product form of materialized cost insurance;(2)the advantage of cost insurance is
mainly that the stable amount of insurance can effectively avoid the risk of market price fluctuations
and provide farmers with stable risk protection.Ensuring production costs not only avoids farmers'
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moral hazard,but also promotes the timely resumption of production.The disadvantages of cost
insurance mainly lie in the rigidity of the cost insurance mechanism,which restricts innovation,
increases the pressure of financial subsidies,the inelasticity of the insured amount,the design of the
phased payout is unreasonable;(3)Cost insurance has a significant effect in improving the welfare
of rural households,but yield insurance can effectively reduce the pressure of government financial
subsidies;(4)In view of the disadvantages of the above-mentioned cost insurance,it is proposed to
establish an insurance product system of "basic insurance +supplementary insurance +commercial
insurance"and improve the design of full cost insurance contracts.and a three-point optimization
strategy to optimize the central and local responsibilities of cost insurance premium subsidies.
This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:first,continue to maintain the
physical and chemical cost insurance,develop the physical and chemical cost insurance into
inclusive insurance,and reduce the proportion of farmers'self-payment of premiums;second,
increase the premium subsidy in major agricultural provinces,especially those with large
commercial grain transfers;and third,explore the pilot project of "yield insurance",giving priority
to local characteristic crops.
The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in:first,the origin,development and
evolution of cost insurance in China are studied from the perspective of product form,which makes
up for the gap in the theoretical traceability of cost insurance and expands the research perspective
of the history of agricultural insurance;second,by comparing the international mainstream output
insurance,the essential differences and advantages and disadvantages of cost insurance and other
insurance products are clarified;third,it expounds the practice of cost insurance in developing and
developed countries,which enricfies the international research on cost insurance.
Keywords：Agricultural Insurance,Production cost insurance,Yield Insurance,Historical
Evolution,Numerical Simulation
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