单位代码10733密级
硕士学位论文
塔吉克斯坦牛肉产品进出口及其对国内市场
的影响研究
Study on Import and Export of Beef Products in Tajikistan and its
Impact on the Domestic Market
DAVLATOV RISHOD
指导教师窦学诚教授所在学院财经学院
学科专业农业经济管理研究方向农业经济
论文答辩日期2024年5月28日学位授予日期2024年6月
答辩委员会主席魏胜文研究员
中国·兰州
2024年6月
Study on Import and Export of Beef Products in Tajikistan and its Impact on
the Domestic Market
By
DAVLATOV RISHOD
Supervised by
Professor Xuecheng Dou
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE
MAJOR IN Agricultural Economics and Management
In
COLLEGE OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS
GANSU AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
LANZHOU,CHINA
June 2024
塔吉克斯坦牛肉产品进出口及其对国内市场的影响研究
摘要
塔吉克斯坦位于中亚，独特的地理和气候条件让塔吉克斯坦肉牛养殖具备了天
然优势。肉牛产业是塔吉克斯坦畜牧业发展的重要组成部分，也是城乡居民重要的
肉类消费品。但随着国内人口的增长，塔吉克斯坦人均牛肉消费量不断加大，本国
的牛肉产量难以满足国内居民的需求，牛肉供应出现明显不足，促使塔吉克斯坦在
近些年不断增大牛肉产品的进口量，通过寻求国际牛肉市场来解决塔吉克斯坦牛肉
市场的供求矛盾问题。科学探索塔吉克斯坦牛肉产品的进出口情况及规律，研究其
对本国市场的影响，对于提高本国牛肉市场优势，更好地满足国内牛肉消费需求具
有一定的保障作用。
基于此，本研究以塔吉克斯坦牛肉进出口作为研究对象，利用来自2010年至
2022年的世界银行、联邦统计局、国际金融统计和塔吉克斯坦政府网站等年鉴数据，
参考国际贸易理论、绝对优势理论、比较优势交易理论等相关理论方法，使用普通
最小二乘（OLS）线性回归探索塔吉克斯坦的牛肉产品出口、进口和对本国市场的
影响情况。研究结果表明：
（1）塔吉克斯坦经济受到牛肉出口、牛肉进口、牛肉生产的显著影响，且牛
肉产品的进出口对塔吉克斯坦经济是显著正向影响。
（2）从牛肉产品进口的增长趋势和当地市场对牛肉产品的供应结构发现，牛
肉产业在塔吉克斯坦市场中占有重要地位，但国内牛肉产业的竞争力仍然不足，且
行业产能和市场需求之间存在显著差异，导致塔吉克斯坦对牛肉进口有很大的依赖
性。
基于以上分析，研究建议通过完善牛肉产品相关基础设施、延长产业链条、建
立健全牛肉产品进出口贸易政策、加大牛肉产业扶持力度、扩大牛肉产业发展规模
等提高国内牛肉产品竞争力，优先发展牛肉产品的出口，以进一步促进经济增长。
关键词：牛肉产品；进出口；国内市场；相关性分析；塔吉克斯坦
I
甘肃农业大学2024届硕士学位论文
Summary
Tajikistan is located in Central Asia,and its unique geographical and climatic
conditions give it a natural advantage in beef cattle breeding.Beef cattle industry is an
important part of the development of animal husbandry in Tajikistan,and also an
important meat consumer product for urban and rural residents.But with the growth of
domestic population,Tajikistan per capita consumption of beef,domestic beef production
is difficult to meet the demand of domestic residents,beef supply,prompting Tajikistan
increasing imports of beef products in recent years,by seeking international beef market
to solve the contradiction of Tajikistan beef market.Exploring the import and export of
Tajik beef products scientifically,and studying its influence on the domestic market,
plays a certain role in improving the advantages of the domestic beef market and better
meeting the domestic beef consumption demand.
Based on this,this study in Tajikistan beef import and export as a research object,
using from 2010to 2022,the world bank,international financial statistics and Tajikistan
government website annual data,reference to international trade theory,absolute
advantage,comparative advantage trading theory related theoretical method,using the
ordinary least squares (OLS)linear regression explore Tajikistan beef products export,
import and influence on the domestic market.The results indicate that:
(1)The Tajik economy is significantly affected by beef export,beef import and beef
production,and the import and export of beef products has a significant positive impact
on the Tajik economy.
(2)from the growth trend of beef products imports and the local market for beef
products supply structure,beef industry occupies an important position in the Tajikistan
market,but the competitiveness of domestic beef industry is still insufficient,and there
are significant differences between industry capacity and market demand,lead to
Tajikistan has a great dependence on beef imports.
Based on the above analysis,the research proposal by perfecting the beef products
related infrastructure,extend the industrial chain,establish and improve the beef products
import and export trade policy,strengthen beef industry support,expand the scale of beef
industry development to improve the competitiveness of domestic beef products,give
priority to the development of beef products exports,in order to further promote
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塔吉克斯坦牛肉产品进出口及其对国内市场的影响研究
economic growth.
Keywords:Beef products;import and export;domestic market;correlation analysis;
Tajikistan
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