国际贸易、FDI 对冲突的影响：
基于“一带一路”沿线国的实证研究
Impact of international trade and FDI on conflict:
an empirical study based on countries along the "the Belt and Road"
岳贞英
Yue Zhenying
分类号密级
U D C 编号
硕士学位论文
学位论文题目：国际贸易、FDI 对冲突的影响
——基于“一带一路”沿线国的实证研究
姓名岳贞英
学号2020212417
学院经济学院
学位类别：学术硕士□专业硕士□同等学力
学科专业国防经济
指导教师侯娜
第二导师
提交论文日期：2023年05月12日
摘要
“一带一路”倡议自2013年提出以来，为沿线各国提供了诸多发展机遇，倡议的
顺利推进需要安全稳定的环境，但“一带一路”沿线区域的政体形态、种族宗教、经济
发展及地理区位因素复杂，国内冲突频发带来诸多风险。经济全球化背景下，经济相互
依赖成为影响国内冲突发展的关键因素，国家间的贸易和投资至关重要，“一带一路”
倡议的推进大大扩展了沿线地区贸易和投资。基于上述背景，本文提出如下问题：对于
“一带一路”沿线国家而言，国际贸易和外国直接投资如何影响国内冲突？中国对外直
接投资是否抑制了东道国国内冲突的发生？
本文采用文献分析法梳理总结了国内冲突的影响因素以及贸易和投资对冲突的影
响；采用统计分析法对“一带一路”沿线国数据进行描述性分析；实证研究部分采用了
Logit 回归模型，综合考量已有研究和数据可获得性等因素，本文选取“一带一路”沿
线66个主要国家作为研究对象，时间为1996-2020年。本文首先采用Logit 回归对机会
模型、相对剥夺模型和综合模型进行检验，检验结果发现综合模型对国内冲突的解释最
优，并以此为基础加入核心解释变量——外国直接投资、贸易开放度和自由度、中国对
外直接投资。根据回归结果发现，FDI 和贸易开放度能显著降低“一带一路”沿线国国
内冲突爆发风险，中国对外直接投资对抑制国内冲突具有显著积极效应。此外，经济水
平、人力资本、人口、政权稳定性、经济不平等、自然资源依赖以及社会分化等均会影
响冲突发生概率。
根据研究结论，本文提出如下政策性建议：“一带一路”沿线国家需关注国内冲突
带来的直接和间接影响，借助“一带一路”倡议平台，通过外国直接投资和贸易进一步
加大与各国的经济合作，构建地区经济合作体系，降低国内叛乱和武装冲突的发生风险。
在区域安全局势不断严峻的背景下，需进一步增加我国对外直接投资并提高投资质量，
加快我国企业“走出去”不容忽视，为“一带一路”沿线地区安全稳定做出积极贡献。
本文的主要创新点包含两点：一、现有研究更多关注投资与贸易对国家间冲突的影
响，本文将研究内容聚焦于国内冲突；二、将国际贸易和外国直接投资消减国内冲突的
理论联系中国实际进行分析，研究OFDI 对“一带一路”沿线地区国内冲突的影响，丰
富了相关领域的文献。
关键词:“一带一路”；国内冲突；投资；贸易；影响因素
Abstract
Since the "the Belt and Road"initiative was put forward in 2013,it has provided many
development opportunities for countries along the "the Belt and Road".The smooth
implementation of the initiative requires a safe and stable environment.However,the region
along the "Belt and Road"has complex political forms,ethnic and religious,economic
development and geographical location factors,and frequent domestic conflicts bring many
risks.In the context of economic globalization,economic interdependence has become a key
factor affecting the development of domestic conflicts,and trade and investment between
countries are crucial.The promotion of the "the Belt and Road"initiative has greatly
expanded trade and investment in regions along the Belt and Road.Based on the above
background,this paper raises the following questions:For countries along the "the Belt and
Road",how do international trade and foreign direct investment affect domestic conflicts?
Does China's foreign direct investment inhibit the occurrence of domestic conflicts in the host
country?
This paper uses the method of literature analysis to sort out and summarize the impact
factors of domestic conflict and the impact of trade and investment on the conflict;
Descriptive analysis of the data of countries along the "the Belt and Road"with statistical
analysis method;In the empirical study,Logit regression model is used to comprehensively
consider the factors such as existing research and data availability.This paper selects 66major
countries along the "the Belt and Road"as the research object,which is from 1996to 2020.
Firstly,this paper uses Logit regression to test the opportunity model,the relative deprivation
model and the comprehensive model.The test results show that the comprehensive model has
the best interpretation of domestic conflict,and adds the core explanatory variables -foreign
direct investment,trade openness and freedom,and China's foreign direct investment.
According to the regression results,FDI and trade openness can significantly reduce the risk
of domestic conflicts in countries along the "the Belt and Road",and China's foreign direct
investment has a significant positive effect on curbing domestic conflicts.In addition,
economic level,human capital,population,regime stability,economic inequality,dependence
on natural resources and social differentiation will affect the probability of conflict.
According to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy
recommendations:countries along the "the Belt and Road"need to pay attention to the direct
and indirect impact of domestic conflicts,further increase economic cooperation with
countries through foreign direct investment and trade,build a regional economic cooperation
system,and reduce the risk of domestic rebellion and armed conflict with the help of the "the
Belt and Road"initiative platform.Against the background of increasingly severe regional
security situation,it is necessary to further increase China's foreign direct investment and
improve the quality of investment,accelerate the "going global"of Chinese enterprises,and
make positive contributions to the security and stability of the regions along the "the Belt and
Road".
The main innovations of this paper include three points:(1)The existing research
focuses more on the impact of investment and trade on inter-country conflicts,and this paper
focuses on domestic conflicts;(2)FDI,trade and China OFDI have been included in the study
of factors affecting domestic conflicts,which has enriched the literature in relevant fields;(3)
The existing research in China is mostly qualitative analysis.This paper uses the Logit
regression method to analyze the impact of FDI,trade and China OFDI on domestic conflicts
from a quantitative perspective.
Key words:"the Belt and Road";Internal conflicts;investment;Trade;influence factor