分类号密级
U D C 编号10486
武汉大学
硕士学位论文
企业家信心、信心乘数与经济波动
研究生姓名：李厚渊
学号：2018201050095
指导教师姓名、职称：马理教授
学科、专业名称：金融学
研究方向：宏观经济与金融
二〇二一年五月
Entrepreneur confidence,Confidence multiplier
and Economic fluctuation
By Li Houyuan
May ,2021
中文摘要
中美贸易摩擦对中国经济造成了较大负面影响。学者们大多关注贸易摩擦对中国经
济的直接冲击，而对外生冲击造成经济波动的渠道关注较少。本文基于动物精神理论，
从信心变量的角度，考察了企业家信心在外生冲击的传导过程中所起的乘数作用，从而
较好解析了外生冲击对中国经济的传导机理。本文尝试拓展超低利率与经济萧条背景下
贸易摩擦的传导机理的理论模型，提出提振信心与发展经济的政策建议，从而为维护经
济平稳运行与可持续发展提供决策参考。
本文首先界定了企业家信心的具体定义，并使用深度学习和文本分析方法，构建了
基于深度学习相似词的企业家信心加权指标和基于语调的上市公司高层情感特征指标
作为企业家信心的替代变量。其次，使用PVAR 模型和格兰杰因果检验，探讨企业家与
经济波动的关系，明确企业家信心的重要地位和宏观影响因子。再次，使用固定效应回
归模型，探讨了企业家信心的决定因素、企业家信心对企业决策的影响并估计了企业家
信心的产出乘数，解析了企业家信心对企业行为及产出影响的微观传导渠道。最后，建
立开放经济条件下的DSGE 模型，将实证检验的结果引入其中，通过脉冲响应函数检验
企业家信心的乘数效应，以及贸易摩擦通过企业家信心对中国经济的影响机理。研究显
示，企业家信心确实在传导过程中存在着乘数效应，从而放大了中国经济受到的负面冲
击。
本文的创新之处在于：使用机器学习和文本分析方法，构建了企业家信心加权指标，
分析了信心对企业家决策的影响；在DSGE 模型中引入企业家信心与银行家信心，分析
了外生冲击的直接影响以及通过影响经济主体信心来影响中国经济发展的全过程。不足
则是对企业家信心的影响因素的挖掘还可以更深入与广泛些，我们将在后续研究中继续
拓展。
关键词：企业家信心；信心乘数；经济波动
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Abstract
The trade friction between China and the United States has a great negative impact on
China's economy.Scholars mostly focus on the direct impact of trade frictions on China's
economy,but pay less attention to the channels of economic fluctuations caused by exogenous
shocks.Based on the animal spirit theory and from the perspective of confidence variables,
this paper examines the multiplier effect of entrepreneur confidence in the transmission
process of exogenous shocks,so as to better analyze the transmission mechanism of
exogenous shocks to China's economy.This paper attempts to expand the theoretical model of
the transmission mechanism of trade friction under the background of ultra-low interest rate
and economic depression,and puts forward policy suggestions to boost confidence and
develop economy,so as to provide decision-making reference for maintaining stable
economic operation and sustainable development.
Firstly,this paper defines the specific definition of entrepreneur confidence,and uses deep
learning and text analysis methods to construct the weighted index of entrepreneur confidence
based on deep learning similar words and the emotional characteristics index of senior
executives of listed companies based on intonation as the alternative variables of entrepreneur
confidence.Secondly,using pvar model and Granger causality test,this paper discusses the
relationship between entrepreneurs and economic fluctuations,and clarifies the important
position and Macro Influencing Factors of entrepreneurs'confidence.Thirdly,using the fixed
effect regression model,this paper discusses the determinants of entrepreneur confidence,the
impact of entrepreneur confidence on enterprise decision-making,estimates the output
multiplier of entrepreneur,and analyzes the transmission process of entrepreneur confidence.
Finally,the DSGE model under the condition of open economy is established,and the results
of empirical test are introduced.The multiplier effect of entrepreneur confidence is tested by
impulse response function,and the impact mechanism of trade friction on China's economy
through entrepreneur confidence is also tested.Research shows that there is a multiplier effect
in the transmission process of entrepreneurial confidence,which magnifies the negative
impact on China's economy.
The innovation of this paper lies in:using machine learning and text analysis methods,the
weighted index of entrepreneur confidence is constructed,and the influence of confidence on
entrepreneur decision-making is analyzed;Introducing entrepreneur confidence and banker
confidence into DSGE model,this paper analyzes the direct impact of exogenous shocks and
the whole process of China's economic development by influencing the confidence of
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economic entities.The deficiency is that the mining of the influencing factors of entrepreneur
confidence can be more in-depth and extensive,and we will continue to expand in the
follow-up research.
Keywords:Entrepreneur confidence;Confidence multiplier;Economic fluctuation
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