自从上世纪 50 年代，世界诞生第一个城市综合体---法国拉德芳斯以来，为世界各 国发展城市综合体树立了成功的典范，也为未来城市综合体发展指明了方向。城市综合 体一般在城市 CBD 区出现，它代表着城市建筑的一次新飞跃和城市标志，如美国纽约 的“洛克菲勒中心”城市综合体等。 城市综合体 (英文为 HOPSCA)，是酒店(Hotel)、写字楼(Office)、公园(Park)、购物 中心(Shopping mall)、会议中心(Convention)、公寓(Apartment)等首个英文字母的缩写， 是具有多功能，高效率而又统一的有机复合建筑群落，能产生良好的经济效益、社会效 益和环境效益。 中国改革开放以来，伴随着中国经济发展，国内知名的城市综合体逐渐崛起，如深 圳万象城，北京国贸中心等均获得巨大的成功，成为展示城市发展鼎盛的标识符。 近年来，随着我国政府对房地产市场的调控，以城市综合体为主要开发类型的商业 地产已成为房地产企业加快业务转型，提高投资效益的重要战略选择，同时也是地方政 府倡导拉动地方经济的主要引擎。 城市综合体具有体量大，功能复杂、建设期长、投资额大及投资风险大等特点，对 房地产企业的综合实力和运营管理能力是一种新考验。据不完全统计，2014 年国内城市 综合体数量达 800 多个，但与发达国家和地区相比，我国各地区发展不平衡，具有高质 量、高效益和能够长期持续运营的城市综合体项目为数不多。 在国内商业地产发展机遇和风险并存的市场环境下，项目商业计划书将是企业进行 重大投资决策的重要依据，也是指导未来企业开展发经营活动的行动纲领。本文以海骏 达城市综合体项目为研究对象，并根据相关的理论知识、经验和结合商业计划书的要求， 对该项目分七大部分进行综合分析。 第一，项目背景及意义、相关文献综述，研究目标内容及方法；第二，项目基本信 息，周边配套环境和开发公司简介；第三，项目外部环境分析；第四，项目市场定位； 第五，项目营销策略；第六，项目财务分析，第七，项目风险与控制。通过分析，结论 是该项目的开发投资是可行的，具有较高经济效益和较强的抗风险能力。 关键词，城市综合体；商业计划书；市场定位；风险控制II ABSTRACT In the 1950s, the world's first HOPSCA was born called La Défense in France. It set up a successful model for the development of HOPSCA worldwide and direct the future development of HOPSCA.Usually, HOPSCA appears in CBD in cities, and it represents a new leap in urban architecture and a city landmarks, such as Rockefeller Center in New York and the like. HOPSCA, the abbreviation of the first letter of Hotel, Office, Park, Shopping mall, Convention, and Apartment, is an organic compound buildingcommunities with multi-functional, high efficiency and unified features which benefits economy, society and environment. Since China's reform and opening up, economic development, the gradual rise of the domestic well-known HOPSCA, such as Shenzhen Vientiane City, Beijing World Trade Center etc., become an identifier to display the peak development of an urban. In recent years, along with China's government regulating the real estate market, HOPSCA, as the main development type of commercial real estate,not only becomes an important strategic choice of real estate enterprises to accelerate business transformation and improve investment efficiency, but also becomes the main engine for the local government to stimulate local economy. Larg espace ,complex funtion, long construction period, large amount of investment and investment risks and other characteristics of HOPSCA are testing the overall strength and operational management capability of the real estate business. According to an incomplete statistics, in 2014, we had more than 800 HOPSCAs in domestic. However, due to the different development levels in various areas in our country, HOPSCA, with high quality, high benefit and enable to continue a long-term operations which compared with the developed countries and regions are few in number. For development opportunities and risks of domestic commercial real estate coexist in the market environment, the Business Project Plan not only will be an important basis for enterprises to make a major investment decisions, but also will be a Programme of Action to guide the interprises to develop future business activities. In this paper, taking the HOPSCA of Hai Jun Da as research objects, and according to the relevant theoretical knowledge, experience, and combining the requirements of the business plan, makes a comprehensive analysis of the seven parts of this project .III First, the background and significance of the project, relevant literature review, targeted content and methods;Second, basic information of this project, the surrounding environment and the profile of developers;Third, the external environment analysis of this project;Fourth, market positioning; Fifth, marketing strategy; Sixth, financial analysis; Seventh,risk and risk control. After analysis, the conclusion is that the investment of this project is feasible, and with high economic benefits and strong anti-risk capability. Keywords:HOPSCA; Business Project Plan; Market Positioning; Risk ControlIV 目录 摘要.............................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 目录..........................................................................................................................................IV 图表清单.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章绪论................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述 ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 城市综合体简述................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 房地产市场定位................................................................................................. 5 1.2.3 营销策略............................................................................................................. 7 1.2.4 房地产经济评价方法......................................................................................... 9 1.2.5 房地产风险分析方法......................................................................................... 9 1.3 研究目标与主要内容 ................................................................................................ 10 1.4 研究方法及技术路线 ................................................................................................ 11 第二章项目概况......................................................................................................................13 2.1 项目基本信息 ............................................................................................................ 13 2.2 项目周边配套 ............................................................................................................ 15 2.3 项目景观环境 ............................................................................................................ 16 2.4 开发公司介绍 ............................................................................................................ 16 2.5 本章小结 .................................................................................................................... 17 第三章项目外部环境分析......................................................................................................18 3.1 宏观环境分析 ............................................................................................................ 18 3.1.1 经济环境分析................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 政治环境分析................................................................................................... 21 3.1.3 社会环境分析................................................................................................... 24 3.1.4 技术环境分析................................................................................................... 25 3.2 区域发展分析 ............................................................................................................ 26 3.3 物业市场分析 ............................................................................................................ 30 3.3.1 写字楼市场....................................................................................................... 33V 3.3.2 商业地产市场................................................................................................... 35 3.3.3 酒店地产市场................................................................................................... 38 3.3.4 住宅地产市场................................................................................................... 40 3.4 本章小结 .................................................................................................................... 43 第四章项目市场定位..............................................................................................................44 4.1 SWOT 分析 ................................................................................................................ 44 4.1.1 项目优势（S）................................................................................................. 44 4.1.2 项目劣势（W） ............................................................................................... 45 4.1.3 项目机会点（O） ............................................................................................ 45 4.1.4 项目威胁点（T） ........................................................................................... 46 4.2 项目市场定位............................................................................................................ 46 4.2.1 发展模式定位................................................................................................... 46 4.2.2 客户定位........................................................................................................... 49 4.2.3 品牌定位.......................................................................................................... 50 4.3 规划思路.................................................................................................................... 51 4.4 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 53 第五章项目营销策略..............................................................................................................54 5.1 产品策略 .................................................................................................................... 54 5.1.1 商业业态定位................................................................................................... 54 5.1.2 酒店业态定位................................................................................................... 55 5.1.3 写字楼业态定位............................................................................................... 55 5.1.4 住宅业态定位................................................................................................... 56 5.2 价格策略 .................................................................................................................... 56 5.2.1 写字楼价格定位............................................................................................... 56 5.2.2 其它物业类型产品价格定位........................................................................... 59 5.3 渠道策略 .................................................................................................................... 59 5.4 促销策略 .................................................................................................................... 61 5.4.1 项目形象占领................................................................................................... 61 5.4.2 媒体组合策略................................................................................................... 61 5.4.3 促销组合策略................................................................................................... 62VI 5.4.4 项目总体开发进度计划及组织架构............................................................... 64 5.5 本章小结 .................................................................................................................... 65 第六章项目财务分析..............................................................................................................66 6.1 项目投资成本估算 .................................................................................................... 66 6.2 筹资方案 .................................................................................................................... 68 6.3 销售收入预测 ............................................................................................................ 68 6.4 盈利能力分析 ............................................................................................................ 69 6.5 不确定性分析 ............................................................................................................ 71 6.5.1 盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................... 71 6.5.2 敏感性分析....................................................................................................... 72 6.6 本章小结 .................................................................................................................... 72 第七章项目风险与控制..........................................................................................................74 7.1 市场风险及控制措施 ................................................................................................ 74 7.2 经营风险及控制措施 ................................................................................................ 75 7.3 融资风险及控制措施 ................................................................................................ 75 7.4 政策风险及控制措施 ................................................................................................ 76 7.5 本章小结 .................................................................................................................... 76 结论..........................................................................................................................................77