河南水利投资集团在襄城县投资建设了襄城县南水北调水厂，本文结合工程投 资的实际情况，进行了四个方面的研究，第一个方面是针对项目的设计，研究了针 对南水北调水源到襄城县之后的水源进行净化的工艺，新增了对地表水藻类爆发期 的针对性措施，对于可能会发生的突发性污染事件预留了深度处理预留地；第二方 面是对投资进行了估算，针对估算的结果，对投资的可行性进行了经济分析、敏感 性分析和生产能力利用率的测算，结果证明项目投资是可行的。第三个方面针对当 前政企合作的模式，探索出了 DBOT（设计一建设一融资一经营）加特许经营的可持 续发展模式，该模式适用于当下倡导的 PPP 建设投资模式，并节约了流程时间，提 高了效率，对企业和政府都有益处，能实现双赢的效果。该模式已经投入了实践并 证明该合作模式非常适用于南水北调配套水厂的建设投资，并有推广的价值。第四 个方面，针对襄城县的现状，分析了可能会对项目公司的运行产生风险的几个敏感 性因素，针对水量、水价带来的风险以及事件风险等等，结合襄城县实际情况对几 个风险来源进行分析，给出了参考性的意见。本文对四个问题的研究均得出了可靠 的结论，给投资者的决策提供了依据。在将来类似的项目投资中，存在很大的参考 价值和实践意义。 关键词，投资 可行性 风险 II Abstract Henan County Water Conservancy Investment Group in Xiangcheng to invest in the construction of the Xiangcheng County water diversion works, this paper combined with the actual situation of project investment, is studied in four aspects, the first aspect is the design for the project, studied the purification process for the diversion of water to Xiangcheng County after the water source, specific measures a new outbreak of algae on the surface, may happen in the sudden pollution events for advanced treatment of second is reserved; the investment estimate, according to estimates, estimates of the utilization rate of the investment feasibility of economic analysis, sensitivity analysis and production capacity, the project investment is proved feasible. In view of the third aspects of government and enterprise cooperation mode, explored DBOT (design of construction financing management) mode of operation of the sustainable development and Franchise, the pattern of the application of PPP investment mode in the present construction of advocacy, and save the process time, improve efficiency, is beneficial to the enterprise and the government can achieve a win-win. The effect of. The model has been put into practice and proved that the cooperation model is very suitable for the construction of the south to North Water Transfer project investment, and has the value of promotion. Fourth, according to the present situation of Xiangcheng County, analyzes the risk of the item company may have run several sensitive factors to water, water price risk and event risk and so on, combined with the actual situation in Xiangcheng county were analyzed on several sources of risk, give out suggestions. In this paper, the study of the four issues have reached a reliable conclusion, to provide investors with a basis for decision-making. In the future similar project investment, there is a great reference value and practical significance. Key words: investment feasibility risk III 目录 第一章 概况.....................................................................................................1 1.1 建设背景...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 投资方背景............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 项目区现状.............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究目的...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 建设模式...................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 项目公司................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 合作模式................................................................................................................................... 4 第二章 工程设计.............................................................................................6 2.1 项目任务与规模.......................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 用水总量预测目标 .................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 人口规模.................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 单位人口综合用水量 .............................................................................................................. 6 2.1.4 结论.......................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 项目选址及布置.......................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 选址........................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 布置........................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 构筑物.......................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.1 工艺流程................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 净水主要建构筑物设计 ......................................................................................................... 11 2.3.3 电气设计................................................................................................................................. 14 2.3.4 自动控制及仪表设计 ............................................................................................................. 15 2.3.5 除藻设计................................................................................................................................. 16 2.4 工程投资.................................................................................................................... 18 2.4.1 建设项目总投资 .................................................................................................................... 18 2.4.2 资金来源................................................................................................................................. 18 第三章 经济评价...........................................................................................22 3.1 评价方法.................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 评价内容.................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.1 年销售收入............................................................................................................................. 22 IV 3.2.2 总成本费用估算 ..................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.3 财务盈利能力......................................................................................................................... 26 3.2.4 经济评价表............................................................................................................................. 26 3.3 本章小结.................................................................................................................... 29 第四章 项目投资风险分析...........................................................................30 4.1 分析方法 ................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 内部收益率判别 ..................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.2 盈亏平衡分析......................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.3 敏感性分析............................................................................................................................. 30 4.2 分析内容 ................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.1 水量风险................................................................................................................................. 32 4.2.2 财务风险................................................................................................................................. 33 4.2.3 市场风险................................................................................................................................. 33 4.2.4 事件风险................................................................................................................................. 33 4.3 防范对策 ................................................................................................................... 33 4.3.1 针对水量风险......................................................................................................................... 33 4.3.2 针对财务风险......................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.3 针对市场风险......................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.4 经营保障措施......................................................................................................................... 34 4.3.5 财务管理保障......................................................................................................................... 35 4.3.6 支持服务保障......................................................................................................................... 35 4.4 本章小结 ................................................................................................................... 38 第五章 结论及展望.......................................................................................39 5.1 结论 ........................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 展望 ........................................................................................................................... 39 5.2.1 适合襄城县水源水质的处理工艺 ......................................................................................... 39 5.2.2 可持续发展的合作模式 ........................................................................................................ 40 5.2.3 适合投资方的投资分析方法 ................................................................................................ 40 5.2.4 有效的风险防控办法 ............................................................................................................ 41 [