I 摘要 现代商业银行是具有经营风险的特殊企业。银行的利润必须通过承担风险来获得， 而存款利差的收购必须承担贷款资金不能归还的风险，存款资金必须在到期时支付。因 此，风险管理与控制是商业银行的生命线，是商业银行成败的关键因素。中小型企业作 为我国市场经济的重要组成部分，正逐渐成为社会生产力发展的主力军。ZDNS 银行作 为张店区一家较大的股份制商业银行，一直以来对张店区中小型企业支持力度较大，且 中小型企业贷款更是 ZDNS 银行信贷业务的主阵地。所以，面对复杂的金融市场竞争， 如何在掌握好中小型企业信贷业务这块市场主阵地的同时更有效地做好中小型企业信 贷风险管控是 ZDNS 银行需要研究的重要课题。 本文首先结合中小型企业的风险特征，从当前 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控 的现状出发，找出了 ZDNS 银行对中小型企业信贷风险管理存在的问题和信贷风险管控 难点：缺乏有效的信贷风险防范和控制手段，缺乏有效的风险评估方法，风险管理文化 的“缺失”，风险评估指标体系不健全，未建立合适的风险评估模型，贷款风险点难以 把握。 通过对比几种常见的信贷风险度量分析方法之后，最后选用 Logistic 模型对 ZDNS 银行中的中小型企业的信贷风险进行评估分析。在综合考虑了中小型企业数据的可获得 性、企业的配合程度、财务报表的真实性等因素的基础上，最终抽取了 ZDNS 银行所服 务的 64 家中小型企业（其中 50 家正常贷款企业、14 家违约贷款企业）采取电话咨询、 贷后上门调研、整理信贷档案等形式收集企业财务报表，获取 21 项财务指标建立了 Logistic 风险评估模型，为 ZDNS 银行风险管控给予一定的参考。通过 Logistic 模型评 估发现，ZDNS 银行中小型企业财务报表中的速动比率、应收账款周转率、资产利润率、 资产净利润率、营业利润率、非筹资性现金净流入与流动负债比率、主营收入现金率、 固定资产周转率、总资产报酬率 9 项指标对违约风险影响较大。其中，应收账款周转率、 资产利润率、总资产报酬率 3 项指标对违约风险的影响最大，应引起高度重视。 最后，针对 ZDNS 银行信贷管控现状及存在的问题，提出了信贷风险管控的改进方 案以及相关保障机制。 关键词：ZDNS 商业银行；中小型企业；Logistic 模型评估；风险管控；建议山东理工大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Modern commercial banks are special enterprises operating risks. The bank's profit must be obtained by taking risks, and the spread between deposit and loan must bear such risks as the loan funds cannot be received back and the deposit funds must be paid when they mature. Therefore, risk control is the lifeline of commercial banks and the key factor affecting the success or failure of commercial banks. As an important part of China's market economy, small and medium-sized enterprises are gradually becoming the main force in the development of social productive forces. ZDNS Bank, as a large joint-stock commercial bank in zhangdian district, has been in a leading position in the market share of deposit and loan business of the major commercial banks in our region. ZDNS Bank has been supporting SMEs in our region, SME loans is the main position of ZDNS bank credit business. In the face of complex financial market competition, how to grasp the main position of SME credit business and effectively control SME credit risk is an important issue for ZDNS bank to study. This paper first combines the risk characteristics of SMEs, starting from the current situation of credit risk control of ZDNS bank SMEs, finds out the problems and difficulties of credit risk control of ZDNS bank SMEs. Among them, the problems of SMEs' credit risk control include: lack of effective credit risk prevention and control means, lack of effective risk assessment methods, risk control culture lack, risk assessment index system is not perfect, no appropriate risk assessment model has been established, loan risk point is difficult. After comparing several common credit risk control and analysis methods, the Logistic model is used to evaluate the credit risk of ZDNS bank SMEs, Taking into account the factors such as the availability of data, the degree of cooperation between enterprises and the authenticity of financial statements, 64 SMEs (including 50 normal loan enterprises and 14 default loan enterprises) served by ZDNS Bank were selected to take the form of telephone consultation, door-to-door investigation after loans and collation of credit files. Collect the financial statements of enterprises, obtain 21 financial indicators, and establish the Logistic model, which provide data model reference for ZDNS bank risk management. The Logistic model shows that there are 9 indexes in the financial statements of SMEs in ZDNS Bank, such as the quick ratio, the turnover rate of accounts receivable, the profit margin of assets, the net profit margin of assets, the operating profit margin, the ratio of non-financing cash inflow to current liabilities, the cash rate of main income, the turnover rate of fixed assets and山东理工大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT III the rate of return on total assets. It has great influence on default risk. Among them, account receivable turnover rate, asset profit rate and total asset return rate have the greatest impact on default risk, which should be paid special attention to. Finally, the paper analyzes the obstacles of the risk control model in the application of SME credit in Zhangdian District, and puts forward some suggestions for ZDNS Bank to apply credit evaluation model to control the credit risk of SMEs. Key words: ZDNS commercial bank; Small and medium sized enterprises; Logistic model estimate; Risk control; Suggestions山东理工大学硕士学位论文 目 录 IV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................II 目 录......................................................................................................................................IV 第一章 绪 论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义..........................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景............................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义............................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究综述..........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 信贷风险影响因素研究综述...........................................................................3 1.2.2 信贷风险管控方式研究综述...........................................................................4 1.2.3 信贷风险管控模型研究综述...........................................................................5 1.3 研究内容及研究方法..................................................................................................7 1.3.1 研究内容............................................................................................................7 1.3.2 调查法................................................................................................................7 1.4 研究技术路线..............................................................................................................7 第二章 商业银行中小型企业信贷风险管控相关理论基础.................................................9 2.1 商业银行信贷风险管控概念及要素...........................................................................9 2.1.1 信贷风险管控的定义........................................................................................9 2.1.2 信贷风险管控的要素........................................................................................9 2.1.3 中小型企业的概念界定及其特点...................................................................9 2.2 COSO 企业风险管理框架...........................................................................................11 2.3 巴塞尔新协议............................................................................................................12 第三章 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷管控现状、风险特征及存在问题分析......................14 3.1 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷现状分析.......................................................................14 3.2 中小型企业信贷风险特征分析.................................................................................15 3.2.1 中小型企业信贷风险的分类和主要内容.....................................................15 3.2.2 中小型企业信贷风险的成因.........................................................................15 3.3 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控存在问题分析...............................................16 3.3.1 ZDNS 银行信贷风险管控组织架构................................................................16 3.3.2 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷业务操作流程....................................................18 3.3.3 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控存在问题............................................18 第四章 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控改进方案......................................................21 4.1 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控改进方案的设计原则、思路及目标...........21 4.1.1 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控改进方案的设计原则........................21 4.1.2 信贷风险管控改进方案的设计思路.............................................................21 4.1.3 信贷风险管控改进方案的设计目标.............................................................22 4.2 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控改进方案内容...............................................22 4.2.1 风险识别指标体系建设.................................................................................22 4.2.2 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险的 Logistic 模型构建与评估..................28山东理工大学硕士学位论文 目 录 V 4.2.3 风险管控的方法.............................................................................................31 第五章 ZDNS 银行中小型企业信贷风险管控改进方案实施的保障措施............................33 5.1 完善信贷风险管控制度建设....................................................................................33 5.2 完善技术环境，积极应用先进风险控制工具........................................................33 5.3 健全银行内部风险控制的制度和文化环境............................................................34 5.4 培养专业稳定的人才队伍........................................................................................34 第六章 结论与展望.................................................................................................................35 6.1 结论............................................................................................................................35 6.2 展望............................................................................................................................35