水是人类生存必不可少的自然资源，为了防止水域污染，改善正在恶化的生态环境， 我国近年来对城市污水的处理愈加重视，因此带动了国内一大批污水处理厂的兴起。据 统计，到 2015 年，全国城镇污水处理厂将达到 5000 座，排放的年污水量将达到 784 亿 吨，随之产生约 3400 万吨污泥（含水率 80%）。然而，伴随着新污水厂的投建势必会产 生更多的污泥，污泥的处置问题也越来越严峻。随着国家“水十条”的公布，污泥处置 问题已经备受相关部门及企业的重视。无论是政府还是企业，污泥处置问题都将面临着 新的机遇与挑战。 针对石家庄桥东、桥西污水处理厂面临的污泥处置问题，寻求合适的解决途径。本 文通过对石家庄桥东、桥西等污水处理厂的实地考察，结合 GW 公司多年的污泥堆肥项 目运作经验，撰写项目商业计划书。报告通过对项目背景、投资主体、项目的技术与工 程设计、产品的营销等方面进行了阐述。为了更好地了解项目的外部环境，运用 PEST 理论分别从政治、经济、社会、技术方面剖析当前的宏观环境，采用五种竞争力模型、 同行业竞争、潜在进入门槛、供应商的讨价还价能力、顾客的讨价还价能力、替代品的 威胁进行分析。项目的内部环境则运用 SWOT 分析项目的优势、劣势、机会和威胁， 并得出项目自身的竞争优势。在产品的营销方面，运用 STP 理论分别从市场细分、目标 市场的选择和市场的定位来进行目标市场及产品定位。同时，采用 4P 理论分别从产品、 价格、渠道和促销等方面制定相应的营销策略。 本项目投资总额为9068.6万元，向银行融资3000万元。资产经营利润率为13.54%、 净资产收益率为 20.23%、静态投资回收期为 4.40 年、财务净现值（FNPV）为 2.57 亿 元、财务内部报酬率（FIRR）为 36.27%，由此可见项目经济价值高。同时，评估了本 项目的风险并制定了相应的风险管理措施。综上所述，本项目具有较高的投资价值。 关键词，商业计划；污泥处置；堆肥；财务分析II ABSTRACT Water is an essential natural resource for human to live. In order to prevent water from polluting and improve the worsening ecological environment, our country has paid a lot of attention to the treatment of municipal wastewater in recent years. Meanwhile, a large number of wastewater treatment plants have sprung up in China. According to statistics, there are over 5000 municipal wastewater treatment plants in 2015. The emission of wastewater can reach 78.4 billion tons, and then about 3400 tons of sludge (moisture content 80%) will be produced. However, more and more sludge will be produced along with the construction of new wastewater plant and sludge disposal arise to be a serious problem in our country. As the “ten-measure action plan to tackle water pollution” published by the government, the related departments and enterprises pay a lot of attention to the problem of sludge disposal. The government and enterprises will both face with new opportunities and challenges to solve the problem of sludge disposal. We seek appropriate solutions to solve the sludge disposal problems for Qiaodong and Qiaoxi wastewater treatment plants in Shijiazhuang. After the field trips to Qiaodong and Qiaoxi wastewater treatment plants, we write the business plan for this project successfully through absorbing the experience of project operation from GW company. The business plan contains the background of project, main body of investment, technology and engineering design of project, product marketing and so on. To preferably understand the external environment of the project, we use the PEST theory to analyze the current macro-environment from the aspects of political, economic, social and technical respectively, and five competitive model including horizontal competition, potential barriers to entry, the bargaining power of suppliers, the bargaining power of customers, the threat of substitute products are used for analyzing. We study the internal environment of project through the SWOT tool which is use to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and then find own competitive advantages. At the aspect of product marketing, we use the STP theory to analyze the segmenting, targeting and positioning of market, and then choose the target market and position products. At the same time, we use 4P theory to develop the corresponding marketing strategy from the aspects of product, price, place and promotion, respectively. The total investment of this project is 90.686 million RMB and 30 million RMB is financed from the bank. The financial indexes are as follows, return on assets is 13.54%, return on net assets is 20.23%, the static payback time is 4.40 years, the financial net presentIII value (FNPV) is 257 million RMB, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is 36.27%, these shows that economic value of the project is in a high level. At the same time, we make great efforts to evaluate the risk of the project and formulate the corresponding risk management measures. In conclusion, this project has enormous economic value and social value and is worth to invest. Keywords: Business plan, Sludge disposal, Compost, Financial analysisIV 目录 摘要.............................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单...............................................................................................................................VIII 第一章绪论................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述 ......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 污泥处理处置现状及发展方向.............................................................................. 2 1.2.2 企业竞争和营销战略相关文献............................................................................... 4 1.2.3 财务及风险管理文献综述...................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究内容及研究方法...................................................................................................... 6 第二章 项目介绍......................................................................................................................8 2.1 公司介绍 ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 集团概况.................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2 组织结构................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 项目团队.................................................................................................................. 9 2.2 项目背景及概况............................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 污泥处置的发展现状............................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 石家庄污泥处置存在的问题................................................................................. 12 2.3 项目总体设计................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.1 建设规模................................................................................................................. 13 2.3.2 厂址选择................................................................................................................. 14 2.3.3 泥质分析................................................................................................................. 15 2.3.4 污泥处理处置技术比较与选择............................................................................. 16 2.3.5 污泥处理处置方案的确定..................................................................................... 18 2.4 污泥堆肥方案设计........................................................................................................ 18 2.4.1 工艺设计................................................................................................................. 18 2.4.2 厂区平面布置......................................................................................................... 21 2.4.3 主体工艺设备......................................................................................................... 21V 2.5 项目技术特色................................................................................................................ 21 2.6 项目 SWOT 分析.......................................................................................................... 22 2.6.1 项目优势................................................................................................................ 22 2.6.2 项目劣势................................................................................................................. 23 2.6.3 项目机会................................................................................................................ 23 2.6.4 项目威胁................................................................................................................ 24 2.7 项目盈利模式 ............................................................................................................... 24 2.8 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 25 第三章 环境分析....................................................................................................................26 3.1 一般环境分析................................................................................................................ 26 3.1.1 政策环境................................................................................................................. 26 3.1.2 经济环境................................................................................................................. 27 3.1.3 社会环境................................................................................................................. 28 3.1.4 技术环境................................................................................................................. 29 3.2 五种竞争力分析............................................................................................................ 29 3.2.1 同行业竞争............................................................................................................ 29 3.2.2 潜在进入者的门槛................................................................................................ 30 3.2.3 供应商的讨价还价能力........................................................................................ 30 3.2.4 顾客的讨价还价能力............................................................................................ 31 3.2.5 替代品的威胁........................................................................................................ 31 3.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 32 第四章 市场需求及营销策略................................................................................................33 4.1 市场需求分析................................................................................................................ 33 4.2 STP 营销战略的制定 .................................................................................................... 34 4.2.1 市场细分................................................................................................................. 34 4.2.2 目标市场选择......................................................................................................... 34 4.2.3 市场定位................................................................................................................. 35 4.3 4P 营销组合................................................................................................................... 35 4.3.1 产品营销................................................................................................................. 35 4.3.2 价格营销................................................................................................................. 36VI 4.3.3 渠道营销................................................................................................................. 36 4.3.4 促销营销................................................................................................................. 37 4.4 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 37 第五章 项目财务分析............................................................................................................39 5.1 财务说明 ....................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 投资估算 ....................................................................................................................... 40 5.2.1 工程投资结果......................................................................................................... 40 5.2.2 其他费用................................................................................................................. 41 5.3 投资计划与资金筹措.................................................................................................... 42 5.4 财务预测........................................................................................................................ 42 5.4.1 财务基础数据......................................................................................................... 43 5.4.2 收入预测................................................................................................................. 43 5.4.3 成本预测................................................................................................................. 44 5.4.4 利润预测................................................................................................................. 45 5.5 财务评价 ....................................................................................................................... 46 5.5.1 静态盈利能力分析................................................................................................. 46 5.5.2 动态盈利能力分析................................................................................................. 47 5.5.3 盈亏平衡分析......................................................................................................... 48 5.5.4 偿债能力分析......................................................................................................... 48 5.5.5 敏感性分析............................................................................................................. 49 5.6 本章小结 ....................................................................................................................... 50 第六章 项目风险管理............................................................................................................51 6.1 政策风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 52 6.1.1 行业政策风险......................................................................................................... 52 6.1.2 法律法规风险......................................................................................................... 53 6.1.3 政府部门协调风险................................................................................................. 53 6.1.4 风险对策................................................................................................................. 53 6.2 市场风险及对策............................................................................................................ 53 6.2.1 产品市场小............................................................................................................. 53 6.2.2 用户接受程度低..................................................................................................... 53VII 6.2.3 竞争对手的增加..................................................................................................... 54 6.2.4 风险对策................................................................................................................. 54 6.3 技术风险及对策............................................................................................................ 54 6.4 财务风险及对策............................................................................................................ 54 6.4.1 银行融资风险......................................................................................................... 54 6.4.2 流动资金紧缺......................................................................................................... 55 6.4.3 坏账风险................................................................................................................. 55 6.4.4 风险对策................................................................................................................. 55 6.5 管理风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 55 6.5.1 人力风险................................................................................................................. 55 6.5.2 流程风险................................................................................................................. 56 6.5.3 风险对策................................................................................................................. 56 6.6 自然风险及对策 ........................................................................................................... 56 6.6.1 自然风险................................................................................................................. 56 6.6.2 风险对策................................................................................................................. 56 6.7 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 57 结论..........................................................................................................................................58