随着泸州市经济的持续健康发展，房地产需求的压力与日俱增，房地产行业逐渐 步入了快车道。然而，鉴于房地产开发项目资金耗用量大，建设周期较长，环境政策 敏感性较强。因此需要针对不同的房地产项目进行科学的分析与预测。 在目前的 房地产市场条件下，成本竞争是各企业重要的竞争手段，而对房地产开发项目的可行 性进行有效的分析，是企业获得利润的保证，直接影响企业的经济效益。 本文以泸州 A 文创产业园项目为研究对象，结合泸州市的城市发展规划，对泸州 市宏观市场、商业市场、住宅市场进行充分分析的条件下，运用 SWOT 分析，确立了 项目的区位优势、资源优势、配套优势、产业优势，并将其定位为泸州两江新城建设 重点打造的项目。 通过项目的经济效益预测数据计算得出，项目的投资利润率为 10.29%；项目投资 回收期为 4.5 年，小于基准投资回收期 5 年；项目预计实现销售收入 54.9 亿元，取得 税后产业扶持基金收入 6.41 亿元，最终实现项目净利润 3.4 亿元；项目内部收益率为 12.64%>10% ；使得项目在经济效益上达到可行的目标。同时，对项目的不确定性因 素进行分析，得出可控的结论；并利用专家打分法对项目的一二级风险因素的权重及 风险大小进行评分。采用模糊评价法的思想，利用隶属度矩阵计算出项目的整体风险 水平为 60.79，处于较低风险水平。在此基础上，对市场风险及防范措施、经营风险及 防范措施、财务风险及防范措施、政策性风险及防范措施四个方面对风险控制进行构 架，对我国房地产项目可行性研究的应用与扩展具有一定的支持与借鉴价值。 关键词，可行性研究；房地产；SWOT 分析；风险控制西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 II 页 Abstract With the sustained and healthy development of Luzhou's economy, the pressure of real estate demand is increasing day by day, and the real estate industry is stepping into the fast lane. However, in view of the large amount of funds consumed in real estate development projects, the construction cycle is longer, and the environmental policy sensitivity is stronger. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out scientific analysis and prediction for different real estate projects. In the current real estate market conditions, the cost of each enterprise competition is an important means of competition, and the feasibility of real estate development projects for effective analysis, is the enterprise profit guarantee, directly affect the economic efficiency of enterprises. This paper takes Luzhou Ba mountain cultural and creative industrial park project as the research object, combined with the urban development planning of Luzhou City, Luzhou City, on the macro market, the commercial market, the housing market to fully analyze the conditions, the use of SWOT analysis, established the location advantage, resource advantage, supporting the project and industrial advantages, and its positioning Luzhou Liangjiang New Town Construction Key project. The economic benefits of the project forecast data calculated that the investment profit rate is 10.29%; the project payback period of 4.5 years, less than the benchmark payback period of 5 years; the project is expected to achieve sales revenue of 5 billion 490 million yuan, after tax gain industry support fund and realize the project income 641 million yuan, net profit of 340 million yuan; the project internal rate of return 12.64%>10%; the project to achieve the feasible target in economic benefit. At the same time, the uncertainty factors of the project are analyzed, and the controllable conclusion is obtained. The weight and the risk size of the one or two risk factors are evaluated by expert scoring method. With the idea of fuzzy evaluation method, the overall risk level of the project is calculated to be 60.79, and it is at a lower risk level by using the membership matrix. On the basis of the four aspects of market risk, management risk and preventive measures and preventive measures, financial risks and preventive measures, policy risk and preventive measures of risk control framework, application and extension of the feasibility study of real estate projects in China has some support and reference value. Key words: feasibility study; real estate; SWOT analysis; risk control西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 III 页 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .............................................................................................................. 2 1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国内研究现状 ...................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 国外研究现状 ...................................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究思路和报告结构.................................................................................................. 4 1.3.1 研究思路 .............................................................................................................. 4 1.3.2 报告结构 .............................................................................................................. 5 第 2 章 项目可行研究相关理论.............................................................................................6 2. 1 项目可行性研究相关理论概述................................................................................. 6 2.1.1 项目可行性研究的内涵 ...................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 项目可行性研究的分析和阐述 .......................................................................... 7 2.1.3 项目可行性研究的必要性 .................................................................................. 7 2.1.4 可行性研究的基本内容 ...................................................................................... 8 2.1.5 项目可行性研究阶段的划分 .............................................................................. 9 2. 2 财务可行性分析....................................................................................................... 11 2. 3 项目可行性风险分析理论与方法........................................................................... 12 第 3 章 项目介绍及市场分析...............................................................................................14 3.1 项目简介.................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 项目位置 ............................................................................................................ 14 3.1.2 地块情况 ............................................................................................................ 14 3.1.3 项目交通状况 .................................................................................................... 15 3.2 项目拟建设内容及开发计划................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 项目建设内容 .................................................................................................... 15 3.2.2 开发计划 ............................................................................................................ 17 3.2.3 项目组织分析 .................................................................................................... 17 3.3 城市发展规划及相关政策分析............................................................................... 18 3.3.1 总体规划 ............................................................................................................ 18西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 IV 页 3.3.2 房地产相关政策 ................................................................................................ 19 3.4 市场分析................................................................................................................... 20 3.4.1 宏观市场 ............................................................................................................ 20 3.4.2 商业市场 ............................................................................................................ 21 3.4.3 住宅市场 ............................................................................................................ 21 3.5 SWOT 分析................................................................................................................ 22 3.6 社会效益分析........................................................................................................... 23 3.7 项目优势及定位分析............................................................................................... 24 第 4 章 项目效益分析...........................................................................................................25 4.1 基础数据分析............................................................................................................ 25 4.1.1 可售面积与留存建筑面积分析 ........................................................................ 25 4.1.2 销售收入分析 .................................................................................................... 26 4.1.3 产业扶持资金 ................................................................................................... 27 4.1.4 成本费用分析 ................................................................................................... 28 4.2 测算结论................................................................................................................... 28 4.3 财务指标分析............................................................................................................ 29 第 5 章 项目不确定性及风险分析.......................................................................................31 5.1 不确定性分析............................................................................................................ 31 5.1.1 产业扶持资金对项目效益影响分析 ................................................................ 31 5.1.2 售价敏感性分析 ................................................................................................ 31 5.1.3 基于盈亏平衡点的拿地成本分析 .................................................................... 32 5.2 风险评估与防范........................................................................................................ 32 5.2.1 风险评价 ............................................................................................................ 32 5.2.2 风险防范 ............................................................................................................ 35 结 论.....................................................................................................................................38 致谢.....................................................................................................................................40