I 摘要 随着社会的发展，老年人在全社会所占比重越来越高，同时，老年人对 生活质量的要求也比以前更高。面对这样的需求，养老机构的数量和质量远 远不能适应，居家养老成为解决这一矛盾的优选方案，而市场上又缺乏高质 量、上规模的居家养老服务公司。在这样的背景下，本商业计划书通过对项 目的整体描述和分析，将目标客户定位为，60 周岁以上居家老人，有固定经 济来源，生活基本能够自理，喜欢有自己的生活空间。在经过实地走访和问 卷调查后，针对这部分老年人的需求特点，提出了 S 公司居家养老服务的主 要内容，从老年人的衣食起居开始，到简单的医疗保障服务，精神慰藉照顾。 在服务内容的设计上，从老年人生理特点出发，在老年人日常生活服务上， 对不同老年人进行基本的评估，视其身体状况和性格特点来安排对应的服务 人员。除了上面的服务之外，还会逐步推出医疗保健服务。 基于对人口年龄构成的分析和对当地居民生活习惯了解程度、与当地政 府沟通等情况，选择莘庄镇为本商业计划书推广的出发点。通过对市场规模 的分析和目标区域的选择，分析了目标市场规模，截止去年末，莘庄镇总人 口 138809 人（户籍人口，实际居住人口超过 30 万），其中 60 周岁以上人口 34067 人，老年人口占比 24.5%，老年人口中 80 周岁以上人口为 5128 人，其 中 100 周岁以上老人 22 人。通过对营销模式的分析，运营计划的编制，得出 未来 5 年服务人群预测，第五年起我们服务的总人数将会达到 2000 人。 通过对公司优劣势的认识，在项目的运营和营销上需要特别注意发挥公 司的特点，专业性，灵活性，服务全面性，专业管理团队。并按照这些需求摘要 II 讨论了公司的管理团队和人力资源的配置。分析了市场规模，发展前景和自 身特点之后，所有的工作都要落实到经营和执行上。在具体的经营计划中， S公司将特别注重如下几点，在与各种竞争对手的比较中，要专注于特定人 群，专注于特定服务项目。在经营上，注重当地政府在其中的作用，以社区 为单位推广。在服务质量上，质量是赢得口碑的基础。在服务内容上，力求 系统性。在财务上，选择轻资产运作，在扩大规模和资金投入上选择稳健的 思路，扎实推进居家养老服务公司的发展。 基于上述各项分析，对 S 公司居家养老服务项目的财务数据进行了预测 分析，项目前期投资 300 万元人民币，其中 150 万元来自自有资金，另外 150 万元来自贷款。由于人力成本占比较大，且前期投入集中，项目在第一年会 出现 80 多万的亏损。但是随着服务对象的逐年增加，扣除每年在人力、设备 及设施上的追加投入，项目从第二年开始可实现盈利，对项目 5 年的财务测 算得出净现值为 4826639>0，证明了 S 公司居家养老服务项目的可行性。 关键词 居家养老 消费者分析 财务分析 营销策略 商业计划东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 III Abstract With the rapid development of our society, the amount of elderly is growing fast. Simultaneously, the elder people are willing to live quality lives. The nursing homes are springing up all around the city but can hardly meet the increasing demand. Home based care service for the elderly would be the optimal choice for the majority. Under this circumstance, this business plan focuses on the solution to the issue above. By means of general analysis of the project, we find our target customer: local residents over 60 years old, having stable finance source, living in their own accommodation. And then, after some side visit and questionnaire, we come up with some frame of the home based care services covering meal plan to daily service and simple medical care, spiritual comfort care. The company will choose Xinzhuang Town as the start point of the specific business because of the population structure of the local residence and their life style, as well as the mutual understanding and communication with the local government and local community. Based on the analysis of market scale and the target area: at the end of last year, Xinzhuang Town, with the total population of 138809 (registered population, actual population over 300000), of which the population of elder people is 34067, the elderly population accounted for more than 24.5%, the population of group over 80 years old is 5128, among which 22 are over 100 years old. Based on the analysis of the marketing mode东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 IV and the operational plan, we predicted that the customers will reach 2000 in the next five years. By analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the company, it is extremely important to take advantage of the specialties of the company. They are: expertise, flexibility, comprehensive services, professional management team. And then we discussed the formation of the management team and the overall manpower arrangement including the appraisal management method. After an insight into the market scale, development prospects and the strengths, we formed an implementation plan. According to the implementation plan, S company will pay special attention to the following rules: in order to compete with various competitors the company has to focus on specific group of customers, focusing on certain service projects. In the aspects of promotion, the easy and efficient way is to take the elderly care service as a commitment to the society and win the support from the local government. With the help of the local government and the neighborhood committee, it is much easier for the potential customers to approach to our service and trust us. Regarding the service quality, quality is the foundation to win the reputation. As a startup company in the field of elderly care service the reputation is the key factor that determines the future of the company. As for the content of the service, the differentiation embeds in the systematic structure. Each service unit seems functioning separately but the whole service content is a system to help the elder people enjoy their lives at home. Be prudent in the expansion of the scale and investment, push forward the东华大学工商管理硕士学位报告 V development of home based care service corporation step by step. Based on the analysis above, we conducted the financial analysis of S company. The original investment is 3000000rmb, including 1500000rmb from personal savings, the other 1500000rmb by loan. According to the forecast there will be about 800000 loss in the first year. But with the service number increasing year by year, although each year we have to increase investment on manpower, equipment and facilities, we can still have a positive profit performance from the second year on. In the next five years the net present value is 4826639>0.. supervised by________。 Keywords Home based care service for the elderly, Consumer Analysis, Financial Analysis, Marketing Strategy, Business Plan目录 - VI - 目录 摘要......................................................................................................................... I Abstract .................................................................................................................III 第一章 绪论...........................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景与意义 ...........................................................................................1 1.2 报告内容及结构 ...........................................................................................3 第二章 S 公司居家养老服务公司概述................................................................5 2.1 公司概述 ........................................................................................................5 2.1.1 S 公司服务内容介绍 ...........................................................................6 2.2 S 公司居家养老服务项目选取目标和原则 ................................................8 2.3 项目的价值主张 ..........................................................................................9 2.4 S 公司居家养老服务的优劣势分析 ............................................................9 2.4.1 S 公司优势分析...................................................................................9 2.4.2 S 公司居家养老服务项目的劣势 .....................................................11 第三章 居家养老服务行业分析 .........................................................................15 3.1 居家养老行业发展情况 ............................................................................15 3.1.1 国外居家养老的发展情况 ...............................................................15 3.1.2 国内居家养老的发展情况 ...............................................................16 3.1.3 上海居家养老的发展 .......................................................................18 3.2 S 居家养老服务项目面临的机会分析 ......................................................19 3.2.1 宏观环境分析（SLEPT 模型） .......................................................20目录 - VII - 3.2.2 微观环境分析（波特五力模型） ....................................................23 3.3 S 公司面临的威胁分析 ..............................................................................28 3.3.1 行业微观环境 ...................................................................................29 第四章 S 公司消费者分析..................................................................................32 4.1 S 公司居家养老服务项目目标客户 ..........................................................32 4.2 基于人口统计数据对目标消费者的统计分析 .........................................32 4.3 S 公司居家养老服务项目客户及市场调查问卷 ......................................33 4.4 客户需求、购买动机及决策分析 ............................................................40 4.4.1 购买动机 ...........................................................................................42 4.4.2 购买决策 ...........................................................................................42 第五章 竞争对手分析.........................................................................................49 5.1 S 公司居家养老服务项目的主要竞争对手 ..............................................49 5.1.1 家利来 ................................................................................................50 5.1.2 万福年华 ............................................................................................51 5.1.3 青松 ...................................................................................................51 5.2 S 公司居家养老服务项目主要竞争对手分析 ..........................................52 5.3 竞争对手优劣势分析 ................................................................................53 5.4 困境解决方案-S 公司居家养老服务项目战略选择................................54 第六章 市场营销计划.........................................................................................58 6.1 市场细分、目标市场选择和市场定位 ....................................................58 6.1.1 市场细分 ...........................................................................................58 6.1.2 选择目标市场 ...................................................................................61目录 - VIII - 6.1.3 市场定位 ...........................................................................................63 6.1.4 S 公司居家养老服务项目的销售目标预测 .....................................64 6.2 营销组合策略（4Ps） ..............................................................................65 6.2.1 产品策略 ...........................................................................................66 6.2.2 价格策略 ...........................................................................................67 6.2.3 渠道策略 ...........................................................................................73 6.2.4 促销策略 ...........................................................................................74 第七章 S 公司居家养老服务项目运营计划......................................................76 7.1 运营管理团队..........................................................................................76 7.1.1 公司组织架构 ...................................................................................76 7.1.2 人力资源配置 ...................................................................................80 7.2 S 公司居家养老服务项目资金投放和成本控制计划 ..........................81 7.3 公司短期及中长期目标..........................................................................82 7.4 公司实施评价..........................................................................................84 第八章 S 公司居家养老服务项目财务计划....................................................86 8.1 资金需求及来源......................................................................................86 8.2 收入分析..................................................................................................86 8.3 成本费用分析..........................................................................................86 8.3.1 营业成本估算 ...............................................................................87 8.3.2 销售费用估算 ...............................................................................89 8.3.3 管理费用估算 ...............................................................................90 8.3.4 财务费用估算 ...............................................................................91目录 - IX - 8.4 财务预测 ....................................................................................................91 8.4.1 利润表预测 ...................................................................................91 8.4.2 现金流量表预测 ...........................................................................93 8.4.3 资产负债表预测 ...........................................................................95 8.5 盈利能力分析 ............................................................................................97 8.6 净现值（NPV）分析 ..............................................................................100 8.7 风险及对策 ..............................................................................................101 第九章 执行摘要...............................................................................................103 9.1 S 公司居家养老服务项目业务简要说明 ................................................103 9.2 市场规模和市场需求 ..............................................................................104 9.3 S 公司居家养老服务项目的特点和优势 ................................................106 9.4 S 公司在经营管理上的重要做法 ............................................................108 附录.....................................................................................................................110 致谢.....................................................................................................................114