摘要
随着市场经济体制的不断加深，电力设计院大力发展总承包的业务模式，发挥设计
院以设计龙头的优势，发挥对设备采购、工程建设的引领作用。但目前电力设计院仍处
于 EPC 项目粗放式管理的模式，并且电力设计院为开拓总承包业务市场，常常采取低价
竞争等方式，在项目的前期阶段和实施阶段都没有对费用风险引起足够的重视，缺失对
项目的费用风险管理。本文主要是在电力设计院 EPC 总承包模式下，对项目全过程进行
费用风险管理，在前期及实施期间进行费用风险识别、分析，对各阶段的决策和管理提
供一定的依据和参考

本文首先分析了电力设计院大力发展 EPC 总承业务模式的背景，及在此形势下进行
费用风险管理的必要性。分析了电力设计院发展总承包模式的结构及特征，提出了目前
电力设计院费用控制的不足，加强费用风险管理的必要性。总结了项目风险管理的基本
概念和管理过程，归纳了现有的风险识别和分析的方法，以及风险规划策略

再利用项目风险识别原理，对项目前期费用风险进行识别，构建了针对总承包项目
前期的费用风险评价指标体系，并构建了基于三角白化权灰色聚类评估的灰色层次评估
模型，利用该方法可以得到总承包项目前期的费用风险整体评价系数，对前期项目管理
者的决策提供参考依据

最后依据总承包项目实施过程中费用风险的特点，提出项目实施过程中的费用风险
管理的流程，并对总承包项目实施期的费用风险进行识别，构建了实施阶段费用风险指
标体系，分析了各类风险指标的特点，结合实际工作经验总结各类风险因素的应对策略，
使管理者全面的掌握项目实施过程中存在的费用风险，加强项目管理者的风险意识，并
为管理者制定相应的风险应对策略提供了科学分析方法及理论参考依据

关键词：电力设计院；EPC 总承包；费用风险；灰色层次分析法华北电力大学硕士学位论文
II
Abstract
With the deepening of the market economic system the EPC mode was striving develped
by the electric power design institute. The design institute play a leading role of equipment
procurement, construction and operation of services to improve the upstream advantages.
However, the EPC project management of electric power design institute is still in the
extensive mode right now. The electric power design institute usually adopt low-cost
competition , in order to occupy market share. The project cost risk was not attracted enough
attention for the EPC project management. This thesis analyze the cost risk in the whole
process of the EPC project mode, analyze the cost risk for Pre - project and Project
implementation period. The thesis provide the basis for the decision-making and management
of the various stages of the project.
Firstly this thesis introduces the background of the develop of EPC project for the
electric power design institute , and the necessity of the cost risk management. Summarizes
the structure and characteristics of EPC development contract mode, puts forward the
insufficiency of cost control and strengthen the cost risk management of electric power design
institute. The basic concept and management process of project risk management are
expounded. The existing risk identification and analysis method and the risk planning method
are introduced emphatically.
Then, based on the principle of project risk identification, this thesis constructs a cost
risk evaluation index system for pre-project cost risk identification, and puts forward a gray
hierarchy evaluation model based on triangular whitening right gray clustering evaluation
model, which can get overall evaluation coefficient of project cost risk, which can provide
reference for the decision of the project manager.
Finally, according to the characteristics of the cost risk in the process of the EPC project,
the thesis puts forward the cost risk management plan in the process of project
implementation, identifies the cost risk and constructs the cost risk index system in the
implementation stage. According to the characteristics of various risk indicators, Combined
with practical work experience to sum up the risk factors coping strategies, so that managers
have a comprehensive grasp of the project implementation process of the cost risk, strengthen
the project manager&39;s risk awareness. And provides the scientific analysis method and the
theory reference basis for the manager to formulate the corresponding risk coping strategy.
Keywords: Electric power design institute， EPC general contracting， Cost risk， Gray
analytical Hierarchy Process华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
目 录
摘要.I
Abstract . II
第 1 章 绪论......1
1.1 选题背景..........1
1.2 研究意义..........3
1.3 国内外研究现状.........3
1.3.1 项目风险管理的研究现状......3
1.3.2 风险管理技术的研究现状......4
1.3.3 费用风险管理的研究现状......6
1.4 主要研究内容和研究结构.....7
1.4.1 研究内容..........7
1.4.2 结构框架..........8
1.4.3 研究方法..........9
1.5 主要创新点.....9
第 2 章 电力设计院 EPC 模式和项目风险管理的相关理论...........10
2.1 电力设计院 EPC 总承包模式及特征..........10
2.1.1 EPC 总承包的定义与内涵.....10
2.1.2 电力设计院 EPC 总承包模式的特征...........11
2.1.3 电力设计院 EPC 总承包合同关系结构.......13
2.1.4 电力设计院 EPC 模式的计价方式...13
2.1.5 电力设计院 EPC 总承包模式的优势和弊端...........14
2.2 电力设计院 EPC 总承包费用风险..14
2.2.1 电力设计院 EPC 总承包费用控制及费用风险管理...........14
2.2.2 电力设计院 EPC 总承包费用风
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