摘要
论文题目：医药流通企业资金链风险识别与预警研究——以海王生物为例
论文类型：案例分析
专业方向：金融机构管理
摘要
资金是企业的“血液”，资金链贯穿企业的日常经营，资金链的正常运转直
接影响到企业的生存和发展。医药流通企业作为连接医药生产企业和医药消费
终端的“纽带”，其本质是资金密集型行业，则需更加重视资金链的健康程度。
一旦资金供给与资金需求间出现不可弥补的缺口时，维系企业正常运转的资金
链条将会断裂，不仅严重影响公司自身的运作，还会损害投资人和债权人的利
益，甚至可能对产业链上下游企业造成不利影响。
近几年国家医改政策频出，给医药流通行业带来巨大冲击，特别是“两票制”
政策的实施，大幅压缩了药品流通的中间环节，倒逼医药流通企业加速整合，
行业竞争度和集中度不断提高，行业结构全面调整。 2016年以来，业内龙头企
业纷纷选择整合收购以扩大公司的体量、抢占市场份额，使得企业资金需求量
剧增，对外筹资规模加大，进一步冲击了原就脆弱的资金链，资金链的风险成
为企业不容小觑的问题。基于此背景，对医药流通行业资金链风险的识别与预
警研究是很有必要的。
本文选取近年来急剧扩张的民营龙头企业 ——海王生物为研究对象，该公
司于 2016-2018年间累计收购 78家公司，自身的资金链处于紧绷状态。2019年
5月海王生物收到深圳证监局的问询函，证监局对年报披露的信息提出质疑。
2021年 2月公司又收到深圳证监局出具的责令改正《决定书》，该《决定书》
指出“公司部分业绩承诺相关核算不规范 ”。公司调整后的财务报表显示最近三
个会计年度扣除非经常性损益前后净利润孰低者均为负值，且最近一年审计报
告显示公司持续经营能力存在不确定性，公司资金链风险巨大。本文采用文献
研究法、案例分析法以及定量分析法，首先分析了医药流通行业的发展现状，
从而引出海王生物的案例，在对公司的基本情况以及资金链现状进行介绍后，
发现该公司的资金链确实存在较大的风险，深入分析背后的成因，主要为筹资
结构不合理，债务融资额过高，盈利能力不足，应收账款管理不善以及医改政
策与疫情的交织影响等。为进一步判断海王生物的资金链是否存在恶化的可能，
建立 logistic模型对资金链断裂风险进行评估与预警，结果显示，海王生物未来
存在资金链断裂风险，公司有必要加强资金链风险的管理。最后从以下方面对
海王生物资金链风险控制措施提出建议：资金筹集阶段需拓展融资渠道、优化
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摘要
资本结构；资金投入阶段需避免盲目投资、优化投资后续整合；资金回笼阶段
需加强应收账款管理、创新营销模式；针对外部风险要设立专门的政策研究部
门。本文对海王生物资金链风险进行深入的研究，以期能给行业内存在资金链
困境的其他公司提供经验教训以借鉴。
关键词：医药流通行业；海王生物；Logistic模型；风险识别与预警
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Abstract
Abstract
Capital is the "blood" of the enterprise. The capital chain runs through the daily
operation of the enterprise. The normal operation of the capital chain directly affects
the survival and development of the enterprise. As a "link" connecting pharmaceutical
production enterprises and pharmaceutical consumption terminals, pharmaceutical
circulation enterprises are capital intensive industries in essence, so they need to pay
more attention to the health of the capital chain. Once there is an irreparable gap
between capital supply and capital demand, the capital chain that maintains the
normal operation of the enterprise will be broken, which will not only seriously affect
the operation of the company itself, but also damage the interests of investors and
creditors, and may even have an adverse impact on the upstream and downstream
enterprises of the industrial chain.
In recent years, the frequent emergence of national medical reform policies has
brought great impact to the pharmaceutical circulation industry. In particular, the
implementation of the "two ticket system" policy has greatly reduced the intermediate
links of pharmaceutical circulation, forced pharmaceutical circulation enterprises to
accelerate the integration, continuously improved the degree of competition and
concentration of the industry, and comprehensively adjusted the industrial structure.
Since 2016, leading enterprises in the industry have chosen to integrate acquisitions to
expand the size of the company and seize market share, resulting in a sharp increase
in the demand for funds and an increase in the scale of external financing, which has
further impacted on the already fragile capital chain. The risk of the capital chain has
become a problem that enterprises can not underestimate. Based on this background,
it is necessary to study the identification and early warning of capital chain risk in
pharmaceutical circulation industry.
This paper selects Haiwang biology, a leading private enterprise that has
expanded rapidly in recent years, as the research object. The company has acquired 78
companies from 2016 to 2018, and its capital chain is in a tight state. In May 2019,
Haiwang biology received an inquiry letter from Shenzhen Securities Regulatory
Bureau, which questioned the information disclosed in the annual report. In February
2021, the company received the decision on ordering correction issued by Shenzhen
Securities Regulatory Bureau, which pointed out that "the relevant accounting of
some performance commitments of the company is not standardized". The adjusted
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