MBA学位论文
作者：王朔
兰州新区石化集团热电联产项目风险管理研究
兰州新区石化集团热电联产项目风险管理研究
中文摘要
项目风险管理是促进人类社会经济科学发展、确保工程建设项目成功的核心
因素之一和重要支持。作为人类发展历史长河中存在的客观现象，风险无处不在、
无时不有。面临如今项目风险的日渐庞杂，成熟企业对项目风险管理的标准也越
来越严格。
兰州新区石化集团立足兰州新区化工园区，主要负责园区的开发建设和投融
资工作，按照兰州新区管委会的安排部署，开展化工园区基础配套设施项目的建
设及运营，通过建设热电联产项目对化工园区范围内进行集中供热，保障入驻化
工园区企业的工业蒸汽与采暖热源需求，为化工园区的招商引资及企业发展提供
强大助力，具有较好的经济效益及社会效益。
本文首先阐明了研究的背景及意义，同时对风险管理国内外的研究现状进行
了叙述，然后对风险管理相关理论及分析方法进行了系统地梳理。接着以兰州新
区石化集团热电联产项目为例，使用头脑风暴法和德尔菲法识别确定了热电联产
项目的 20项风险因素，使用层次分析法计算了 20项风险因素各自的权重，使用
模糊综合评价法对风险因素可能的影响进行了量化评价，并依据评价结果对其中
风险影响较高的环节提出了相应风险应对措施，为热电联产项目的成功实施提供
理论支持。最后拓展热电联产项目的风险识别、评估、应对过程，提出一套适用于
石化集团的项目风险管理体系，提升公司项目管理水平及效率。
关键词：项目管理，风险管理，热电联产项目
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MBA学位论文
作者：王朔
兰州新区石化集团热电联产项目风险管理研究
RISK MANAGEMENT STUDY OF LANZHOU NEW AREA
PETROCHEMICAL GROUP COGENERATION PROJECT
Abstract
Project risk management is one of the core factors and important support to promote
the scientific development of human society and economy and ensure the success of
engineering and construction projects. As an objective phenomenon existing in the long
history of human development, risks are everywhere and everywhere. Facing the
increasing pang of project risks nowadays, the standards of mature enterprises for project
risk management are becoming more and more strict.
Based in Lanzhou New Area Chemical Industry Park, Lanzhou New Area
Petrochemical Group is mainly responsible for the development, construction and
investment, and financing of the park, and carries out the construction and operation of
the infrastructure facilities of the chemical park according to the arrangement and
deployment of Lanzhou New Area Management Committee, and centralizes the heat
supply within the chemical park by constructing the cogeneration project to ensure the
industrial steam and heating heat source demand of the enterprises stationed in the
chemical park, to provide the industrial steam and heating heat source demand for the
chemical park. This project will provide a strong boost to the investment attraction and
enterprise development of the chemical park, and has good economic and social benefits.
This paper firstly describes the background and significance of the study and also
describes the current situation of risk management research at home and abroad. Then,
the theories and analysis methods related to risk management are systematically sorted
out. Then, taking the cogeneration project of Lanzhou New Area Petrochemical Group as
an example, the 20 risk factors of the cogeneration project were identified using
brainstorming and Delphi method, the weights of each of the 20 risk factors were
calculated using hierarchical analysis, the possible impacts of the risk factors were
evaluated quantitatively using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the
corresponding risk response measures were proposed for the links with high-risk impacts
based on the evaluation results. The evaluation results provide theoretical support for the
successful implementation of CHP projects. Finally, the risk identification, evaluation,
and response process of the CHP project are expanded, and a set of project risk
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MBA学位论文
作者：王朔
兰州新区石化集团热电联产项目风险管理研究
management systems applicable to a petrochemical group is proposed to improve the
project management level and efficiency of the company.
Keywords: Project management，risk management, cogeneration projects
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