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摘要
保障群众住房需求，化解房地产市场金融风险，牢牢坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用
来炒的”的基本定位是我国房地产业调控的工作重点。然而，当前我国住房与金融联动机
制尚未成熟，房地产金融宏观审慎管理体系尚不完善，对重点城市和大型房地产企业的联
动管控机制仍需健全，货币政策的调控效果与预期还存在一定差距。货币政策是我国宏观
调控的重要政策工具，其对房地产企业能够产生较大影响，因此，研究货币政策对房地产
企业的影响有利于发挥房地产金融调控作用，保持我国房地产市场平稳健康发展。
本文基于货币政策传导机制理论，采用文献分析与实证分析相结合的方法，分析了货
币政策的利率渠道、资产价格渠道以及信贷渠道作用于房地产企业的具体传导机制。考虑
到上市房地产企业发展更为成熟、各项制度更为完善，采用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），
以 10家上市房地产企业为样本，选用 2007年第二季度至 2020年第四季度的财务数据进
行分析，验证了以上几种货币政策传导渠道在我国房地产企业的传导路径是否通畅。研究
发现：在我国货币供应量增加后使得名义贷款利率上升，这并没有争议，传统凯恩斯利率
传导渠道是基于宏观视角，强调实际利率的变化对社会总投资和总产出的影响。贷款利率
的变化是基于企业资产负债表渠道对房地产企业的生产经营活动产生影响。货币供应量
和名义贷款利率的上升促进了房价的上涨，资产价格渠道下房价是货币政策传导到房地
产企业的重要中间环节，社会融资规模和贷款利率对房价的短期影响明显，但长期影响微
弱；信贷渠道下的银行借贷渠道有效，并且名义利率影响现金流的企业资产负债表渠道有
效，同时基于企业资产净值和抵押贷款路径的资产负债表渠道也是有效的。同时各变量间
的影响时滞较短，金融市场各变量对货币供应量存在当期或滞后一期响应，贷款利率、房
价和社会融资规模的变化对房地产企业各变量产生影响最多则需要 2期。基于上述发现，
提出了针对性建议，希望能优化货币政策在房地产企业的微观传导机制，最大程度发挥货
币政策效力，进而推动房地产企业持续健康发展。
关键词：货币政策传导机制，房地产企业，利率渠道，资产价格渠道，信贷渠道
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Abstract
Protecting the housing demand of the masses, resolving the financial risks in the real estate
market and firmly adhering to the basic positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation"
are the priorities of the real estate industry regulation in our country. However, the current linkage
mechanism between housing and finance in our country is not yet mature, the macro-prudential
management system of real estate finance is not yet perfect, the linkage control mechanism for
key cities and large real estate enterprises still needs to be improved, and there is still a certain
gap between the control effect of monetary policy and expectations. Monetary policy is an
important policy tool in China's macro-control, which can have a greater impact on real estate
enterprises. Therefore, studying the impact of monetary policy on real estate enterprises is
beneficial to play the role of real estate financial control and maintain the steady and healthy
development of China's real estate market.
Based on the theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism, this paper analyzes the
specific transmission mechanism of monetary policy's interest rate channel, asset price channel
and credit channel on real estate enterprises by combining literature analysis with empirical
analysis. Considering that the development of listed real estate enterprises is more mature and
various systems are more perfect, the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) is adopted to
analyze the financial data of 10 listed real estate enterprises from the second quarter of 2007 to
the fourth quarter of 2020, which verifies whether the transmission paths of the above monetary
policy transmission channels are smooth in China's real estate enterprises. The study found that
the nominal loan interest rate increased after the increase of money supply in China, which is not
controversial. The traditional Keynesian interest rate transmission channel is based on the macro
perspective, emphasizing the impact of changes in real interest rates on social total investment
and total output. The change in loan interest rate is based on the impact of corporate balance sheet
channel on the production and operation activities of real estate enterprises. The increase of
money supply and nominal loan interest rate promotes the rise of house price. House price is an
important intermediate link between monetary policy and real estate enterprises under the asset
price channel. The short-term impact of social financing scale and loan interest rate on house
price is obvious, but the long-term impact is weak. The bank lending channel under the credit
channel is effective, and the corporate balance sheet channel where the nominal interest rate
affects the cash flow is effective, as well as the balance sheet channel based on the corporate net
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