大连理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文
摘 要
现在市场竞争的趋势已经由企业之间的竞争转变成供应链之间的竞争，而库存管理
水平的高低直接影响整个企业的运营成本和竞争能力。供应链库存管理向着数字化、智
能化和协同透明化三个研究方面发展。现代企业特别是中小型企业已经认识到提升的库
存管理能力对自身经营与管理的重大意义。
研究库存管理的重点不仅仅是放在管理存货上，还要考虑具体产品的生产与采购周
期的客观存在的情况下，如何通过供应链物流管理流程中各种协调手段，寻找到库存成
本与库存风险的平衡点，既能将产品迅速、可靠地送到客户手中，又可以降低企业库存
风险到达可控范围，从而确定最佳的库存周转率。以A公司作为案例，分析公司库存管
理现有状况，挖掘不增值活动，找出各种弊端与问题，通过科学方法分析主要原因，对
于提升A公司库存周转率提出针对性的解决方案，从而达到降低库存成本。
本文分析 A 公司库存管理的高库存低周转率的现状,指出预测不准，以及安全库存
设置过高，物料不齐套等问题，分析主要原因是预测需求和设置安全库存的方法不科学，
以及受物料采购期限制。接着针对 A 公司主营产品，利用简单移动平均法和 BASS 预测
模型分别对不同生命周期阶段推算基准预测，通过基准预测辅助销售判断的方式，提高
需求预测的准确性；同时提出利用更科学方式计算安全库存存量并建立监控流程；选择
关键物料实施VMI，解决采购提前期长的物料管理，加强供应商管理提高交货及时性；
加强供应商的关系管理；最后提出系列改进方案的保障措施，包括组织机构的优化；构
建信息平台；网络与信息安全等保障。本论文的研究结果可对相关制造型企业库存管理
具有理论指导和借鉴参考意义。
关键词：运营管理；库存管理；时间序列预测法; BASS预测模型；安全库存
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A公司库存管理改进研究
Research on Improvement of Inventory Management at A Company
Abstract
The global market competition has changed from the original competition between
enterprises to supply chains. In supply chain management, the level of inventory management
directly affects the operation cost and competitiveness of the enterprise. The research of supply
chain inventory management is developing towards digitization, intelligence and collaborative
transparency. Modern enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have
realized that the enhanced inventory management ability is of great significance to their own
operation and management.
The inventory management not only focuses on the management of stock, but also needs
to consider manufacture and purchasing lead time, to look for the balance of inventory costs
and risk via coordinating process in supply chain management. It can fulfill customer
requirement on time and control inventory risk, then define the best inventory turnover.
Taking company A as an example, analyzes the current status of the company's inventory
management, excavates non-value-added activities, and finds out various problems. It is hoped
that through analysis root causes, provide solutions to improve the inventory turnover rate and
reduce the inventory cost.
This thesis analyzes the states of low turnover in company A’s inventory management.
Pointing out that the forecast is low accuracy, and the safety stock is too high, the material
does not match demand; The main reasons for this analysis are the unscientific method of
forecasting demand and setting up safety stock and the limitation of material purchase period.
Improve inventory management of company A scheme is put forward: the implementation of
simple moving average method provides benchmark forecast sales by judging the way, improve
the credibility of demand forecasting; calculate safety stock inventory and establish monitoring
process; select the key material to manage by VMI, to solve the long purchasing lead time of
materials management, improve the supplier delivery on time; supplier relationship
management. Finally, a series of improvement measures are proposed, including
organizational optimization, information platform construction, network and information
security guarantee. The research results of this paper can be of theoretical significance and
reference to the inventory management of related manufacturing enterprises.
Key Words： Operations Management; Inventory Management; Time Series
Forecasting; BASS; Safety Stock
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大连理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文
目录
摘 要.............................................................................................................................I
Abstract ............................................................................................................................. II
1 绪论.............................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 研究背景和意义............................................................................................... 1
1.1.1 研究的背景............................................................................................ 1
1.1.2 研究的意义............................................................................................ 1
1.2 研究方法与思路............................................................................................... 2
1.2.1 研究方法................................................................................................ 2
1.2.2 研究思路................................................................................................ 2
1.3 研究内容........................................................................................................... 3
2 相关理论综述.............................................................................................................. 4
2.1 库存与库存管理............................................................................................... 4
2.2 全面库存管理内容与特征............................................................................... 4
2.3 供应链物流管理及特征................................................................................... 5
2.4 供应链综合管理信息系统............................................................................... 6
2.5 供应商库存管理(VMI) .................................................................................... 7
2.6 安全库存理论................................................................................................... 8
2.7 时间序列预测法............................................................................................... 9
3 A公司库存管理的现状分析.................................................................................... 11
3.1 A公司的简介................................................................................................. 11
3.2 A公司库存管理的现状................................................................................. 13
3.2.1 A公司库存管理模式.......................................................................... 13
3.2.2 A公司库存管理运作流程.................................................................. 15
3.2.3 A公司库存管理指标.......................................................................... 16
3.2.4 A公司库存周转率及库存分析.......................................................... 17
3.3 A公司库存管理存在的主要问题................................................................. 19
3.3.1 预测不准确.......................................................................................... 19
3.3.2 安全库存偏高...................................................................................... 20
3.3.3 物料不齐套.......................................................................................... 20
3.4 A公司库存管理问题的原因分析................................................................. 22
3.4.1 预测方法不合适.................................................................................. 22
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。。。以下略