摘要
随着汽车产业的高速发展，汽车保有量持续增加，汽车零部件行业也得到快
速发展。汽车密封件是汽车零部件之一，汽车密封件的供应过程是物流、商流、
信息流、资金流的集成过程。供应链关系管理的大多数活动都是围绕库存的流动、
储存和管理在进行。库存起着推动供需平衡的关键作用，库存控制对于提高响应
能力、降低成本极为重要。因此，本文以H公司为研究对象，对其汽车密封件库
存控制问题进行研究。
首先，本文对汽车密封件类型及特点、库存及库存控制、密封件库存控制的
作用及特点、密封件库存控制方法、需求预测方法、鱼骨图分析法等进行归纳总
结。然后，通过对H公司实地访谈，对H公司所在行业、产品及市场进行调查，
了解H公司汽车密封件库存结构和库存控制现状，并采用鱼骨图分析法梳理H公
司“总库存水平高，库存满足率却很低”的产生原因，并提出相应的优化建议。
H公司在库存控制过程中，表现出计划变动性大，总库存水平高、新增呆滞品多、
缺货率也高的现象。通过数据梳理和鱼骨图分析法分析，得出导致H公司库存控
制问题的原因是需求预测不准确、客户管理没有针对性、安全库存设置不科学、
补货策略不合理。本文在此基础上主张，需求预测应以历史数据为依据，并结合
市场因素、组织行为等定性判断得出结果。同时，结合H公司的客户价值和汽车
密封件需求属性，将H公司产品分为I、II、III三大类别，再根据不同类别设
置相应的安全库存及补货策略。其中：I类产品客户价值高，产品总价值占比高，
产品需求频次高，需求量大但具有波动性；II类产品客户重要，产品总价值较
高，产品需求频次高，需求量大且稳定；III类产品客户价值一般，产品总价值
低，产品项目数多，产品需求频次低，需求量少且不稳定。
通过量化H公司三种类别产品需求和供应的不确定性，对不同类别客户设置
服务能力目标值，综合此两个因素分别设定相应的安全库存，同时根据不同类别
产品性质选择合适的补货策略，以提高库存周转率、控制多余库存的产生和达到
供需平衡。最后，提出库存控制优化方案实施的相关保障措施，即员工培训、信
息系统升级、和制度流程优化等。
关键词：汽车密封件；库存控制；库存分类；需求预测；鱼骨图分析法
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Abstract
With the rapid development of the automobile industry, the number of cars
continues to increase, and the auto parts industry also develops rapidly. Automobile
seal is one of the automobile parts, the supply process of automobile seal is the
integration process of logistics, business flow, information flow and capital flow.
Most activities of supply chain relationship management are carried out around the
flow, storage and management of inventory. Inventory plays a key role in promoting
the balance between supply and demand, and inventory control is very important for
improving response ability and reducing cost. Therefore, this paper takes H Company
as the research object to study the inventory control of its auto seals.
First of all, this paper summarizes the types and characteristics of automobile
seals, inventory and inventory control, the role and characteristics of seal inventory
control, seal inventory control methods, demand prediction methods, causal diagram
method and so on. Field interviews and then, based on the H company, industry of H
company, product and market investigation, understand the H company car seal
inventory structure and inventory control status quo, and USES the fish-bone diagram
analysis method combing H company "total inventory level is high, inventory
satisfaction rate is lower" reasons, and put forward the corresponding optimization
Suggestions. In the process of inventory control, H Company showed great plan
variability, high total inventory level, many new sluggish products and high
out-of-stock rate. Through data combing and causal graph analysis, it is concluded
that the reasons for H company's inventory control problems are inaccurate demand
prediction, lacking of localization customer management, unscientific safety
inventory setting and unreasonable replenishment strategy. On this basis, this paper
argues that demand prediction should be based on historical data and qualitative
judgment based on market factors and organizational behavior. At the same time,
according to the customer value of H company and the demand attribute of auto seals,
H company's products are divided into three categories: I, II and III, and
corresponding safety inventory and replenishment strategies are set according to
different categories. Among them, category I products have high customer value, high
proportion of total value of products, high frequency of product demand, large
demand but with volatility; Class II products have important customers, high total
value, high demand frequency, large and stable demand; Class III products have
average customer value, low total value, large number of product projects, low
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frequency of product demand, small and unstable demand.
By quantifying the demand and supply for uncertainty three categories of H
Company’s products, target values for different categories of customer service ability,
integrated the two factors, respectively, set the corresponding safety stock, at the same
time, according to the nature of different categories of products to choose the
appropriate replenishment strategy, in order to improve the inventory turnover ratio,
control of excess inventory and achieve the balance between supply and demand.
Finally, the relevant safeguard measures for the implementation of inventory control
optimization plan are put forward, including staff training, information system
upgrading, and system process optimization.
Key words: Automobile seal; Inventory control; Inventory classification;
Demand forecasting; Fish-bone diagram analysis
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