摘
要
科学技术是第一生产力，金融是经济发展的血液，科技金融将这二者进行高度的
融合，有利于促进科研成果产业化和创新型经济的发展，成为我国社会经济改革和可
持续性发展的重要驱动力。科技金融与先进制造业创新发展的协调发展是国家经济高
质量发展的重要前提，因此深入研究科技金融与先进制造业创新发展的耦合路径关系
对促进我国稳健型创新经济具有重要的学术价值和实际意义。
论文首先对科技金融与先进制造业创新发展的内涵进行概括总结，再根据系统论、
协同理论以及共生理论对两者间互动理论机制进行分析。通过梳理现有文献并结合我
国现实基础构建评价指标体系，利用 SA优化后的 PPC算法和 TOPSIS方法进行测度
与综合评价。在耦合路径关系的研究上，首先使用 K-means和马尔可夫链算法研究两
者的发展状态转换规律，再从“系统-系统”角度，使用耦合协调度模型进行测度，并使
用 Kernel密度估计-马尔可夫链算法和收敛算法研究其动态演变轨迹与特征；从“子系
统-系统”角度上，利用关联路径算法分析作用路径；最后从“子系统-子系统”角度上，
使用共生路径算法研究子系统间的共生模式。结果表明： 2007-2019年间，科技金融
与先进制造业创新发展水平均呈现波动上升趋势，但地区间的水平差异性显著，两者
存在明显的滞后关系；两者的发展状态具有相似的规律，其交互作用比较明显，但耦
合协调度呈现“金字塔”型分布结构，绝大多数地区并未达到良好的“共振效应”；耦合
协调度发展状态服从整体的稳态分布，状态转移的概率较低，发展过程中的 β收敛特
征显著，发展缓慢地区存在追赶效应；科技人力资源与先进制造业创新发展的路径系
数均值在其子系统内最高，而单位 GDP的高新技术工业净利润对科技金融的路径系
数均值在其子系统内最高，但两者子系统对系统的贡献程度均未达到最佳阶段；我国
科技金融子系统与先进制造业创新发展子系统间均未达到互惠共生状态，并且还存在
系统相互抑制的问题，文章针对发展中存在的问题提出了政策路径。
关键词：科技金融;先进制造业;创新发展；动态耦合关系；路径研究
I

ABSTRACT
Technology is the first productive force and finance is the blood of economic
development. Science and technology finance integrates the two to a high degree, which is
conducive to promoting the industrialization of scientific research achievements and the
development of innovative economy, and becomes an important driving force for China's
socio-economic reform and sustainable development. The coordinated development of
science and technology finance and advanced manufacturing innovation development is an
important prerequisite for the high-quality development of national economy, so an
in-depth study of the coupling path relationship between science and technology finance
and advanced manufacturing innovation development has important academic value and
practical significance for promoting a robust innovation economy in China.
The paper firstly summarizes the connotation of science and technology finance and
advanced manufacturing innovation development, and then analyzes the theoretical
mechanism of interaction between them according to system theory, synergy theory and
symbiosis theory. The evaluation index system is constructed by combing the existing
literature and combining with the realistic basis in China, and the SA-optimized PPC
algorithm and TOPSIS method are used for measurement and comprehensive evaluation. In
the study of coupling path relationship, firstly, we use K-means and Markov chain
algorithm to study the development state transition law of both, then use the coupling
coordination model to measure from the perspective of "system-system", and use Kernel
density estimation-Markov chain algorithm and convergence algorithm to study its dynamic
evolution trajectory Finally, from the "subsystem-subsystem" perspective, the symbiotic
path algorithm is used to study the symbiotic patterns among subsystems. The results show
that during the period of 2007-2019, the innovation development level of science and
technology finance and advanced manufacturing industry both show a fluctuating upward
trend, but the level difference between regions is significant, and there is an obvious
lagging relationship between the two; the development state of the two has a similar pattern,
and their interaction is obvious, but the coupling coordination degree shows a "pyramid"
type distribution structure. The development state of coupling coordination obeys the
overall steady-state distribution, the probability of state transfer is low, the beta
convergence in the development process is significant, and the catching-up effect exists in
III
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