I 摘要 银行业作为中国经济体系的重要组成部分，对促进经济发展作用显著。城市 商业银行作为我国银行业的第三梯队，完善了现代商业银行体系，逐渐成为银行 业的重要组成部分。成都银行于1996年成立，2018年在上交所挂牌上市，是四川 省首家上市银行，作为一家本土银行，在我省具有一定的代表性。 如今，我国城商行通过一系列改革及经营管理方式的调整，在国内银行体系 中的综合实力不断增强，市场份额不断增加。我国城商行坚守服务地方经济和服 务小微企业的市场地位，并逐渐实现了跨区域经营，资产规模增速已超过银行业 平均水平，作为我国银行业第三梯队的地位日趋稳固和重要。 本文以成都银行作为研究对象，采用哈佛分析框架对成都银行的发展战略、 财务报表、财务指标和前景估值分别做了详细的研究。基于战略视角的哈佛分析 框架不同于传统财务分析，首次将战略分析、会计分析、财务分析与前景分析四 个板块相结合，创立了一种全新的企业财务分析框架，为相关信息使用者了解和 分析企业的经营状况、财务成果和预测公司未来前景提供了更加科学、合理的分 析手段，提供了更多的决策相关信息。 首先，文中对银行业的宏观环境和成都银行的内部条件做了分析，又通过波 特五力模型和SWOT态势分析法对成都银行的发展战略进行了分析。其次，通过 对关键会计政策和会计估计的识别和对资产负债表、利润表和现金流量表的解读， 对成都银行进行了会计分析。再次，采用骆驼评级法对成都银行的资本充足性、 资产质量、管理水平、盈利水平和流动性进行分析，并在杜邦分析法的基础上结 合银行业的财务特征对成都银行的净资产收益率进行分解分析。最后，对我国城 市商业银行的发展前景和成都银行的发展前景分别进行了分析。通过上述四个环 节的分析，为成都银行在当前国内经济金融环境下实现可持续的健康发展提供有 价值的建议，也为财务报表的各类使用者提供合理的参考依据。 关键词：成都银行，财务分析，哈佛分析框架 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT As an important part of China's economic system, banking plays a significant role in promoting economic development. As the third echelon of China's banking industry, urban commercial banks have improved the modern commercial banking system and gradually become an important part of the banking industry. Bank of Chengdu was founded in 1996 and listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2018. It is the first listed bank in Shanghai Stock Exchange of Sichuan Province. As a local bank, it has certain representativeness in Sichuan Province. Nowadays, through a series of reforms and adjustment of operation and management methods, urban commercial banks in China have been increasing their comprehensive strength and market share in the domestic banking system. China's urban commercial banks adhere to the market position of serving local economy and small and micro enterprises, and gradually realize cross regional operation. The growth rate of asset scale has exceeded the average level of the banking industry, and their position as the third tier of China's banking industry has become increasingly stable and important. This dissertation takes Bank of Chengdu as the research object, and uses Harvard analytical framework to study the development strategy, financial statements, financial indicators and prospect valuation of Bank of Chengdu in detail. Harvard analytical framework based on strategic perspective is different from traditional financial analysis. It combines strategic analysis, accounting analysis, financial analysis and prospect analysis for the first time to create a new enterprise financial analysis framework, which provides more scientific and reasonable points for related information users to understand and analyze the business status, financial results and forecast the future prospects of the company analysis of means provides more information about decision-making. First of all, this dissertation analyzes the macro environment of the banking industry and the internal conditions of the Bank of Chengdu, and then analyzes the development strategy of the Bank of Chengdu through Michael Porter five forces model and SWOT situation analysis model. Secondly, through the identification of key accounting policies and accounting estimates and the interpretation of the balance sheet, ABSTRACT III income statement and statement of cash flows, the accounting analysis of Bank of Chengdu is carried out. Thirdly, it uses CAMEL rating to analyze the capital adequacy ratio, asset quality, management level, profitability and liquidity of Bank of Chengdu, and decomposes the return on equity of Bank of Chengdu based on DuPont analysis combined with the financial characteristics of the banking industry. Finally, the development prospects of China's urban commercial banks and Bank of Chengdu are analyzed. Through the analysis of the above four links, we can provide valuable suggestions for Bank of Chengdu to achieve sustainable and healthy development in the current domestic economic and financial environment and in the competition with the China’s six largest banks, joint-stock commercial banks, other urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rural credit cooperatives, etc. Keywords: Bank of Chengdu, financial analysis, Harvard analytical framework 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 ....................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ............... 1 1.2 研究目的 ............... 2 1.3 研究思路、方法及框架 ...................... 3 1.3.1 研究思路 ..... 3 1.3.2 研究方法 ..... 3 1.3.3 论文框架 ..... 3 1.4 本文结论和创新 ... 4 1.4.1 本文结论 ..... 4 1.4.2 本文创新 ..... 5 第二章 哈佛分析框架理论与文献综述 .......... 6 2.1 哈佛分析框架理论 .............................. 6 2.1.1 战略分析 ..... 7 2.1.2 会计分析 ..... 7 2.1.3 财务分析 ..... 7 2.1.4 前景分析 ..... 8 2.2 银行财务分析研究现状 ...................... 8 2.3 财务分析方法研究现状 ...................... 9 2.3.1 国外研究 ..... 9 2.3.2 国内研究 .... 11 第三章 成都银行战略分析 ............................ 13 3.1 成都银行概况 ..... 13 3.2 银行业宏观环境分析 ........................ 13 3.2.1 银行业总体情况 ...................... 13 3.2.2 城市商业银行发展概况 .......... 15 3.2.3 银行业发展趋势分析 .............. 16 3.3 成都银行内部条件分析 .................... 18 3.3.1 成都银行资源分析 .................. 18 3.3.2 成都银行能力分析 .................. 19 3.4 成都银行发展战略 ............................ 20 目 录 V 3.4.1 波特五力模型分析 .................. 20 3.4.2 SWOT分析 22 3.4.3 发展战略选择 .......................... 24 3.5 本章小结 ............. 25 第四章 成都银行会计分析 ............................ 27 4.1 关键报表项目识别 ............................ 27 4.2 资产分析 ............. 29 4.2.1 总体情况 ... 29 4.2.2 贷款分析 ... 29 4.2.3 投资分析 ... 33 4.3 负债分析 ............. 34 4.3.1 总体情况 ... 34 4.3.2 存款分析 ... 34 4.4 营业收入分析 ..... 35 4.4.1 总体情况 ... 35 4.4.2 利息净收入分析 ...................... 37 4.5 营业支出分析 ..... 39 4.4 本章小结 ............. 40 第五章 成都银行财务分析 ............................ 41 5.1 资本充足性分析 . 41 5.2 资产质量分析 ..... 43 5.2.1 不良贷款率分析 ...................... 44 5.2.2 拨备覆盖率分析 ...................... 45 5.2.3 贷款迁徙率分析 ...................... 46 5.3 管理水平分析 ..... 50 5.3.1 人均净利润分析 ...................... 51 5.3.2 成本收入比分析 ...................... 52 5.4 盈利水平分析 ..... 53 5.4.1 杜邦分析 ... 53 5.4.2 成都银行ROE分解分析 ........ 53 5.5 流动性分析 ......... 59 5.6 本章小结 ............. 61 第六章 成都银行前景分析 ............................ 62 目 录 VI 6.1 银行业发展前景 . 62 6.2 定性分析 ............. 62 6.3 定量分析 ............. 63 6.3.1 股利贴现模型 .......................... 63 6.3.2 股权成本分析 .......................... 64 6.3.3 成都银行估值 .......................... 66 6.4 本章小结 ............. 67 第七章 结论与建议 ......... 68 7.1 结论 ..................... 68 7.2 建议 ..................... 68 7.3 研究不足 ............. 69 致 谢 71