本论文（以下简称“论文”）所涉及的HD公司（以下简称“公司”）从事光固化技术 应用领域里光固化产品的生产和销售，目前产能瓶颈问题已经严重制约了公司的发展， 公司意欲投资扩大产能项目（以下简称“项目”或“扩产项目”）来增加产能。在做投资决 策时，公司需要对扩产项目做财务可行性研究，用来回答来自于董事会的几个主要问题， 包括：扩产项目是否值得投资？扩产项目可以给公司新增的价值是多少？项目自身的回 报率如何？回收期要多久？项目存在哪些风险？可以采取哪些措施来进行风险防范？ 论文首先运用“波特五力模型”分析法认清行业内部竞争结构，运用“SWOT”分析法 了解公司的优势、劣势以及潜在的机会和威胁，在此基础上总结出公司的核心竞争力， 归纳出扩产项目的特点和实施目的，以便在需要对销售和成本进行预测时找到线索和依 据，同时也为论文最后对各种风险制定应对和防范措施时奠定信息基础。 为了得出项目整体的现金流量预算，论文从项目前期初始投入现金流量和项目寿命 期内现金流量两个不同的项目实施时间阶段展开研究。通过对资本类投入（包括固定资 产投入和资本化费用支出）和非资本化各类费用支出的预测，制定项目前期初始投入现 金流量；通过对扩产项目所带来的销售增量和单位销售毛利进行预测和预算，计算得出 增量销售毛利，接着又进一步对新增期间费用、所得税费用和营运资本变动进行了预测 和预算，来确定项目寿命期内的现金流量，从而得出项目整体各年度现金流量。 论文使用沪深300同行业93间上市公司过去五年剔除财务杠杆后的经营贝塔的平 均值，作为项目的贝塔，运用资本定价模型计算项目的资本成本即折现率，结合项目寿 命期内各年度现金流量，计算得出项目的各类投资决策财务指标，包括净现值、获利指 数、内部报酬率和修正后的内部报酬率以及动态回收期。通过对这些财务指标计算结果 的分析，得出了该扩产项目是值得投资的结论，项目为公司新增的价值为2.26亿元，动 态回收期为5.2年，修正后的内部报酬率为19%。 最后，运用单因素敏感性分析法得出了影响项目的三个主要敏感因素，包括特殊品 销量、特殊品的单位原料成本和项目前期初始投入；运用多因素敏感性分析法，经过计 算和分析，得出项目安全性较高的结论；并就不确定风险因素，提出了可以采取的防范 措施，包括加大特殊品研发投入和市场推广力度确保特殊品的销量增长、做好原料采购 管理，控制好单位原料成本，同时管理好项目前期初始投入并且保证项目按时竣工。 关键词：扩产投资；财务可行性；投资决策 II Abstract The HD company (hereinafter referred to as "the company") involved in this thesis (hereinafter referred to as "the thesis") is engaged in the production and sales of light curing products in the applied field of light curing technology. The current bottleneck in production capacity has seriously restricted the company's further development. The company needs implement capacity expansion investment project (hereinafter referred to as "project" or "expansion project") as soon as possible to increase production capacity. When making investment decisions, the company needs to do a financial feasibility study to answer several main questions from the board of directors: Is the project worth investing in? What value can the project add to the company? What is the returning rate of the project itself? How long can the investment get its payback? What are the risks of the project? What measures can take to prevent the risks? The thesis first uses "Porter's Five Forces Model" analysis method to identify the internal competition structure of the industry, and uses "SWOT" analysis method to identify the company's strengthens, weakness, potential opportunities and threats. On this basis, summarize the company's core competitiveness, the characteristics and implementation objectives of the expansion project as well, which also lay the basic information foundation for the subsequent sales forecast and various risk-prevention measures. In order to get the overall cash flow of the project, the thesis starts study from two aspects according to the timing of the project implementation: the cash flow of the investment in the early stage of the project and the cash flow during the project lifetime. Based on the prediction of capital invest (including both fixed asset investment and capitalized expenditures) and non- capitalization expenditures, the cash flow of the investment in the early stage of the project are formulated. Then predict the sales volume increasing and budget the unit gross margin to work out the incremental gross margin. Followed by further predictions on newly incurred operation expenses, income tax expenses and incremental working capital to determine the cash flow during the whole lifetime of the project. In this way, the overall cash flow budget of the project obtains. The thesis uses the average operating betas of the 93 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 during the past five years as the betas of the project after taking off the financial leverage. Those 93 companies are all in the same industry. Then base on the “Capital Assets Pricing Model” to work out the capital cost, i.e. the project discount rate. Upon with the project's overall cash flow, calculate various financial indicators on the investment decisions, including  III net present value, profit index, internal rate of return, modified internal rate of return and discounted payback period. Through analyzing the results of each indicator, conclude that the expansion project is worth investing in. The new value added by the project to the company is 226 million yuan with 5.2 discounted payback years and 19% modified internal rate of return. In the last, the thesis uses the single-factor sensitivity analysis method to determine the top three project risk factors, including sales volume of the specialties product, unit raw material cost of specialties product and initial investment in the early stage of the project. Then use the multi-factor sensitivity analysis method to calculate their mix impact on net present value and analyze the risks, which proves investing to the project has a high security. For the risks brought by the uncertainties of the project, it is possible to prevent through taking countermeasures including increase the investment in research and development on specialties products, enhance the sales and marketing efforts to ensure the growth of sales volume on specialties products as well. At the same time, well manage the raw material procurement and control the unit raw material cost. Meanwhile, well control the initial investment in the early stage of the project and ensure its commissioning completeness on time. Keywords: investment for expansion; financial feasibility; investment decision IV 目 录 摘要 ............... I Abstract ........ II 图表目录 .... VII 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ................ 1 1.2 文献综述 ............................ 1 1.2.1行业方面的研究现状 ... 1 1.2.2财务可行性方面的研究现状 ...................... 3 1.3 研究方法和内容 ................ 4 第二章 行业分析和扩产项目规划 ............................ 8 2.1 行业结构和产品特点 ........ 8 2.1.1 行业特点 .................... 8 2.1.2产品特点 ....................... 9 2.1.3 行业竞争结构分析 ...... 9 2.2 公司SWOT分析 ............. 11 2.3 公司的核心竞争力分析 .. 13 2.4 扩产项目特点和项目实施目的 ..................... 13 2.5 本章小结 .......................... 14 第三章 项目前期投入现金流量预算 ...................... 15 3.1 资本类投入 ...................... 15 3.1.1 建筑工程投入 ............ 15 3.1.2 设备及配套备品备件投入 ....................... 16 3.1.3 安装工程投入 ............ 17 3.1.4 管理外包费用和各类配套设施建设投入 .............................. 17 3.2 前期投入的各类费用支出 ............................. 18 3.3 前期各年度的现金流量预算 ......................... 19 3.4 本章小结 .......................... 19 第四章 销售增量预测和增量销售毛利预算 .......... 20 4.1 销售增量预测 .................. 20  V 4.1.1公司产品分类与特点 . 20 4.1.2 原有产能和项目新增加的产能 ............... 20 4.1.3项目投产前销量预测和产能利用 ............ 21 4.1.4 项目投产后销售增量预测 ....................... 22 4.2 产品销售价格和单位原料成本 ..................... 24 4.2.1 决定产品销售价格的因素 ....................... 24 4.2.2销售价格和关键原料市场采购价格的关系 ........................... 25 4.