慢性肾脏病（简称CKD）是继高血压、糖尿病之后又一种严重影响我国居民健康的 慢性疾病，呈现态势为患病率高达10.8%，据估计我国现约有1.4亿CKD患者，而早期 知晓率低至12.5%，CKD终末期死亡率高以及医疗支出费用高昂，已成为严重影响我国 社会经济发展的公共卫生问题。因此，慢性肾脏病专家组建议一般人群每年至少进行一 次尿白蛋白和血肌酐的检测；建议CKD高危人群采取防治措施，至少每6个月进行一次 尿白蛋和血肌酐的检测，并估算尿白蛋/肌酐比值(ACR)作为筛查方案。然则，由于目前 我国基层医疗和社区卫生尚未完善，我国居民对CKD的认知低，不积极体检，未能及时 发现，给CKD的筛查防治增加难度，于是亟待需要既有效而又经济的筛查方式对CKD进 行早期识别和风险预警，实现早期筛查、早期干预、早期治疗，延缓CKD 的进展，降低 整体CKD的治疗费用。 本论文从投资项目评估的视角，运用市场需求分析研究“慢性肾脏病互联网辅助筛 查项目”。研究目的及意义：为适应人群提供既有效而又经济的CKD辅助筛查模式，解 决CKD辅助筛查的痛点并提供方案建议；为投资者在项目评估前期进行分析决策以及提 前战略布局提供参考依据；具有社会价值、商业价值、经济价值的研究意义。本论文主 要采用市场调查和预测的方法：通过近十年的相关文献检索和统计数据进行市场调查分 析目前以及未来CKD市场需求量、市场需求结构以及影响需求的因素，并筛选全国各级 规模具有代表的城市进行抽样问卷调查研究该项目市场接受度。抽样调查一般人群样本 数量669例，医护人员样本数量123例。研究结果:在抽样调查中，一般人群中的72% 愿意接受该项目的模式，并接受支付于互联网辅助筛查的费用在1200元以内的占 57.5%；医护人员愿意推荐辅助筛查项目方案给患者的比例为96.2%。此外，根据市场需 II 求结构初步设计项目需求框架模型，为解决CKD辅助筛查项目市场的痛点提供方案建议。 最后，本论文通过项目市场需求综合分析研究结论为，随着人口年老龄化的趋势以 及居民医疗消费的增长，该项目具有长期投资前景。同时，有待解决一些问题，如：人 群对CKD认知度低的问题、信息安全的问题、项目的技术精准度等问题，还需要在市场 实践中逐步完善。 关键词： 慢性肾脏病筛查；互联网医疗；市场需求分析；项目管理 III STUDY ON MARKET DEMAND FOR THE PROJECTS OF CKD-ASSISTED SCREENING IN INTERNET-BASED ABSTRACT Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become another chronic that Seriously affect the health of Chinese residents after cardiovascular disease, diabetes and tumors. The prevalence rate is as high as 10.8%. An estimated that about 140 million patients with CKD in China, the early awareness rate I s as low as 12.5%, with high mortality of ESRD has become a serious public health problem and high cost of medical expenses bring severe financial burden, which affect development of the social and the economy. Therefore, the Expert Group of CKD recommends that the general population be tested for urinary albumin and creatinine at least once a year; The high-risk CKD population take primary protective measures, such as family history of renal disease, diabetes, hypertension, hyperuricemia, advanced age and obesity, was performed at least once every six months for the detection of the urine albumin / creatinine ratio (ACR) is estimated as a screening program. However, primary medical institutions and grass-roots community health medical have not yet completeness in China, our residents have a low awareness of CKD, failed to actively check physical examination, failed to detect it in time, so increases the difficulty of CKD screening and prevention. Therefore, it is urgently needed that an effective and economical screening method for early identification and risk warning of CKD. From the perspective of investment project evaluation, this paper uses market demand analysis to study " Internet- Based Application for CKD auxiliary screening projects". Research objective: To provide an effective and economical CKD auxiliary screening model IV for the adaptive population, to solve the pain points of CKD auxiliary screening and to provide program Suggestions. Provide reference for investors to make analysis and decision in the early stage of project evaluation and advance strategic layout. This thesis mainly adopts the method of market investigation and forecast: Through nearly a decade of literature retrieval and statistical data for market research and analysis the current and future market demand for CKD, the market demand structure and the factors that influence the demand , Screen out representative cities at all levels across the country for the sampling questionnaire survey research the market acceptance of the project etc., The questionnaire sample of the general population (n = 669), the questionnaire sample of medical staff (n = 123). Research Results: 72% of the general population in the sample survey were willing to accept the project model, and 57.5% of them were willing to pay less than 1200 yuan for the Program of Internet- Based Application for CKD screening ; The proportion of medical staff who were willing to recommend the auxiliary screening program to patients was 96.2%.According to the market demand, the project demand framework model was preliminarily designed to provide solutions to the pain points of CKD auxiliary screening market. At last, the research conclusion of this paper through comprehensive analysis of project market demand is: with the trend of population aging and the increase of residents' medical consumption, the project has a long-term investment prospect through the comprehensive analysis of market demand. At the same time, some problems need to be solved, such as people's awareness of CKD, information security, technical accuracy of project design, etc. KEY WORDS: Screening for chronic kidney disease（CKD）；Internet healthcare；Market demand analysis；Project management V 目 录 摘要 .... I ABSTRACT III 第一章 绪 论 ............................. 1 1.1 选题研究的背景、目的及意义 ........................... 1 1.1.1 选题研究的背景 ................. 1 1.1.2 选题研究的目的 ................. 6 1.1.3 选题研究的意义 ................. 6 1.2 国内外研究现状及文献综述 7 1.2.1 国内外慢性肾脏病流行病学的相关研究 ........ 7 1.2.2 国内外慢性肾脏病筛查项目相关研究 .......... 10 1.2.3 国内外互联网医疗应用的相关研究 .............. 10 1.2.4 文献综述小结 ................... 14 1.3 项目市场需求分析研究的基础理论 ................. 15 1.3.1 市场需求研究的概述 ....... 15 1.3.2 市场调查是认识项目市场需求的基本途径 .. 16 1.3.3 市场预测是掌握项目市场发展的主要路径 .. 17 1.3.4 市场需求分析是决定项目必要的关键步骤 .. 19 1.4 论文研究思路、内容及方法 ............................. 22 1.4.1 研究思路 ........................... 22 1.4.2 研究内容 ........................... 23 1.4.3 研究方法 ........................... 24 1.5 主要结论与可能的创新 ...... 26 VI 第二章 CKD辅助筛查项目的市场需求调查 .... 27 2.1 项目简介 .............................. 27 2.2 项目市场需求调查的流程 .. 27 2.3 项目市场需求调查的方法 .. 27 2.3.1 运用文献检索调查法采集项目市场需求的要素信息 ................. 28 2.3.2 运用询问调查法问卷调查项目市场的接受度和需求结构 ......... 30 2.3.3 运用询问调查法进行深度访谈调查市场的预期和前景信息 ..... 36 2.4 项目市场需求调查的内容 .. 37 2.4.1 调查项目的市场环境及现状 .......................... 37 2.4.2 调查项目的市场需求量 ... 39 2.4.3 调查项目的市场需求结构及变化 ........ 39 2.4.4 调查项目的市场购买动机与行为 .................. 41 2.5 市场需求调查的结果 .......... 41 2.6 本章小结 .............................. 44 第三章CKD辅助筛查项目的市场需求预测 ...... 45 3.1 项目市场需求预测的目的 .. 45 3.2 项目市场需求预测的基本流程 ......................... 45 3.3 项目市场需求预测的方法 .. 45 3.3.1 运用类推预测项目市场的环境变化 .............. 45 3.3.2 运用归纳类推预测项目市场未来需求量 ...... 46 3.3.3 运用回归求积移动平均模型预测项目市场需求的影响因素及购买行为 ................ 46 3.3.4 运用综合意见方法预测项目市场的发展趋势 ............................. 46 3.4 项目市场需求预测的主要内容 ......................... 46 VII 3.4.1 预测项目市场的环境变化 .............................. 46 3.4.2 预测项目市场未来的需求量 .......................... 48 3.4.3 预测项目市场需求的影响因素及购买行为 .. 49 3.4.4 预测项目市场的发展趋势 .............................. 49 3.5 项目市场需求预测的结果 .. 50 3.5.1 项目市场未来需求总量 ... 50 3.5.2 项目市场的需求结构框