I 摘要 棚户区的改造建设项目本身就是一项重大的政治民生建设任务,并且常常伴随着棚 改项目筹集的资金难度特别大、资金的投入使用非常的多等特点，而且居民住宅的拆 迁难度非常大、改造的楼房的施工质量和施工工期等等面临的影响因素特别多。无论 是其开始的选址，以及后来的规划、设计和施工，到最后的棚改项目竣工验收，改造 户的居民正式使用,整个项目建设过程都可能存在着各类不可预测的因素和风险,譬如 项目面临的各类自然灾害风险以及其他社会风险，包括面临的工程风险和经济风险等 等。如果对建设中遇到的各种风险不及时加以有效的识别、分析、管控,那么这些各种 风险和影响因素在一定的时间和条件下相互作用,会直接使得棚户区的改造建设项目的 进展延缓、投资成本严重超支,甚至会直接导致改造建设项目的失败。基于棚户区的改 造建设项目在规划和实施的过程中可能涉及的各种风险和影响因素众多,并且在规划建 设实施过程中，这些风险因素容易产生、相互作用，对项目产生影响。最后，在浏览 相关文献资料、认真学习风险评价方法后，笔者决定采取层次分析法（AHP）对德州 市小刘村的棚改项目进行风险评价，同时综合运用模糊综合评价法构建棚改项目的模 型展开整体风险评价，获得显著成效。 本文通过对德州市小刘村的棚改项目进行深入的风险管理分析,结合管理风险的各 种理论,深刻地剖析了小刘村的棚改项目面临的风险问题,并通过对比的论述国内外棚 户区研究的现状,介绍了论文的风险管理技术研究路线与方法以及研究的内容等等。通 过运用系统的层次综合分析法和模糊综合风险评价的方法,对工程建设项目潜在风险指 标的重要性进行层次综合评价,并通过分析得出最终的风险评价方法和结果。本文简要 介绍了德州市小刘村棚户区风险改造工程建设项目的主要风险因素和应对管理方法,并 根据不同建设阶段的风险特征,提出对建设阶段德州市小刘村棚户区风险改造工程项目 具体潜在风险影响因素的分析和应对管理策略。并对小刘村实施棚户区风险管理后,项 目建设阶段取得的风险管理效果和重要性进行了分析。 本文的研究结论摘要如下:一是棚改项目需要多部门联合执导。因此,在山东省德州 市小刘村的棚户区危房改造建设项目的规划与方案编制实施中,必须高度重视房屋的征 地拆迁,以及有效的资金筹措手段，使之棚改项目朝着高效而又好的方向发展。二是建 设行之有效的项目风险的回避与识别管理机制,使得小刘村的对项目内部的风险控制与 管理均能够取得好效果,大大提高高改善项目的管理水平。三是棚改项目面临风险时， 采用的风险识别机制能迅速回避和做出有效防范措施。 关键词：棚户区；项目风险；棚改项目；风险管理西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文 II ABSTRACT The reconstruction and construction project of shantytown itself is a major task of political and people's livelihood construction, and it is often accompanied by the characteristics such as the great difficulty in raising funds for the shantytown renovation project and the great amount of investment and use of funds., many factors affecting the quality of construction, and relatively long construction periods. Both its initial site selection and its subsequent planning, design and construction, and completion of the project to its formal use, there may be various unpredictable factors and risks throughout the project construction process, such as various natural and other social disaster risks, and technology application risks , Management risk, production safety management risk, economic benefit risk, etc. If on various risks encountered in construction is not timely effective identification, analysis and control, so these risks and influencing factors under the condition of a certain amount of time and interaction,, which will directly make progress in the reconstruction and construction projects of shanty towns. Delays and severe overruns in investment costs can even lead to the failure of reconstruction projects. During the planning and implementation of the shantytown-based renovation and construction project, various risks and influencing factors may be involved, and the interaction of various risk factors will have an impact. After comparing and analyzing and summarizing various risk evaluation methods, we A multi-level risk analysis method was selected for risk evaluation, but because the calculation results of this risk evaluation method are scattered, the results of comprehensive analysis and evaluation of various risk factors for the entire shantytown project cannot be obtained in time, so the combination of fuzzy The fuzzy AHP model established by the comprehensive evaluation method can achieve better results. Based on the in-depth risk management case analysis of The project in Xiaoliu Village, Dezhou city, combined with various management risk theories, this paper profoundly analyzes the risk problems faced by the project in Xiaoliu Village, and through the comparison of the status quo of shanty town research at home and abroad, introduces the risk management technology research routes and methods and research content, etc. Through the application of systematic ahP and fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment, the importance of the potential risk index of engineering construction projects is comprehensively evaluated at the ahP level, and the final risk assessment method and result are obtained through the analysis. This paper briefly introduces the dezhou XiaoLiu Village shantytownABSTRACT III reconstruction engineering construction project of the main risk factors and management methods, and according to the risk characteristics of different construction stages, put forward the construction stage of dezhou XiaoLiu Village risk shantytown renovation project specific analysis of the potential risk factors and management strategy. It also analyzes the effect and importance of the risk management in the construction stage of the project after the implementation of the shanty town risk management in Xiaoliu Village. Research and conclusion in this paper, the main problem of this paper are as follows: First, the management of house demolition and resettlement should be led by relevant local government departments. Therefore, in the planning and implementation of the shantytown renovation and construction project in Xiaoliu Village, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, great attention must be paid to the demolition and resettlement of the houses in order to effectively promote the promotion of the shantytown's dilapidated house reconstruction in Xiaoliu Village towards a virtuous circle. Direction of development. The second and more important is the effective prevention of project risk avoidance and identification management mechanism, which has made the internal control and management of project construction and management in Xiao Liucun achieve obvious results, and the level of project management has also been greatly improved. Third, the project risk identification mechanism for the reconstruction of shanty towns in Xiaoliu Village can be avoided and effectively prevented. Keywords: shantytown；project risk；shanty town reform project；risk management目 录 I 目 录 摘要...............I ABSTRACT .II 第一章 绪论.............................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ............... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ............... 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ............ 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ............ 5 1.3 文献评述 ........................... 7 1.4 研究内容及方法 ............... 8 1.4.1 研究内容 .................... 8 1.4.2 研究方法 .................... 8 第二章 项目风险管理的相关理论......................10 2.1 项目风险概述 ................. 10 2.2 项目风险管理 ................. 10 2.2.1 项目风险管理的定义 ............................. 10 2.2.2 项目风险管理的目标 ............................. 10 2.2.3 项目风险管理的过程与方法 ................. 12 2.3 风险评价与应对方法 ..... 13 2.3.1 风险评价方法 .......... 13 2.3.2 风险应对方法 .......... 14 第三章 德州市小刘村棚户区改造项目风险识别.............................16 3.1 棚户区改造项目背景情况 ............................ 16 3.2 小刘村棚户区改造项目基本概况 ................ 17 3.3 棚改项目的场址建设条件 ............................ 19 3.3.1 场内建设条件 .......... 19 3.3.2 场外条件 .................. 20 3.4 小刘村棚户区改造项目风险识别 ................ 22 3.4.1 棚户区改造项目风险一般特征 ............. 22西北农林科技大学硕士学位论文 II 3.4.2 小刘村棚改项目风险管理现状 ............. 23 3.4.3 小刘村棚改