创业投资具有高收益同时伴随着高风险的特质，需要投资人或企业对投资项目的 风险进行评估，制定相应的投资决策，从而避免自身遭受风险的冲击。在我国创业投 资项目高速发展的环境下，通过对创业投资风险进行评估，不但可以迅速帮助投资对 象提升发展速度，加快追赶行业领先企业的脚步，还能降低投资风险率，让投资者们 获得相对较高的利润。 由于创业投资活动中不可避免受到管理力度不足、信息不对称等因素的影响，这 些因素将造成管理、开发运营以及信用等方面风险，另外创业投资项目的风险难以实 现量化研究，即使目前广大学者不断探索创业投资风险评估的新方法，也取得了一些 成效，但是评估方法仍然多多少少都存在着一些问题，并且绝大多数创业投资企业风 险评估方法的选择都是结合企业实际状况而定，没有形成统一规范的方法体系。 基于上述情况，本文针对创业投资风险评估的特点，充分考虑创业投资风险的特 征，将主成分分析法评估模型应用到了创业投资风险评估中，选出一种最佳的风险评 估方法进行应用研究，对创业投资机构进行风险评估、提升风险防范能力、优化资源 配置具有一定的参考意义。 关键词：创业投资；风险评估；指标体系；主成分分析法重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 II Abstract Venture capital has the characteristics of high returns and high risks. Investors or enterprises are required to evaluate the risks of investment projects and make corresponding investment decisions so as to avoid the impact of risks. Under the environment of high-speed development of venture capital projects in our country, through the assessment of venture capital risks, not only can the investment target be rapidly helped to improve the development speed and speed up the pace of catching up with leading enterprises in the industry, but also the investment risk rate can be reduced, allowing investors to obtain relatively high profits. As venture capital activities are inevitably affected by factors such as insufficient management and asymmetric information, these factors will result in risks in management, development and operation, credit, etc. In addition, venture capital project risks are difficult to realize quantitative research. Even though numerous scholars have been exploring new methods of venture capital risk assessment and have achieved some results, there are still some problems in the assessment methods more or less. Moreover, the choice of most venture capital enterprise risk assessment methods is based on the actual situation of the enterprise and there is no unified and standardized method system. Based on the above situation, this paper, aiming at the characteristics of venture capital risk assessment and fully considering the characteristics of venture capital risk, applies the principal component analysis assessment model to venture capital risk assessment and selects an optimal risk assessment method for application research, which has certain reference significance for venture capital institutions to carry out risk assessment, enhance risk prevention capability and optimize resource allocation. Key Words: venturecapital investment; riskinvestment; indexsystem; principal component analysis重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 III 目录 1 绪论.......................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景 .....................................................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的和意义 .........................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 研究目的 ..........................................................................................................................2 1.2.2 研究意义 ..........................................................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状 .........................................................................................................................2 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ..................................................................................................................2 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ..................................................................................................................3 1.4 研究内容与方法 ........................................................................................................................5 1.4.1 研究内容 ..........................................................................................................................5 1.4.2 研究方法 ..........................................................................................................................5 1.5 论文所做的有价值的工作.........................................................................................................5 2 创业投资风险评估的相关概述及方法 ...............................................................................................7 2.1 创业投资风险评估的相关概述..................................................................................................7 2.1.1 创业投资风险的概述.......................................................................................................7 2.1.2 投资风险评估的概述.......................................................................................................7 2.2 创业投资风险评估的方法..........................................................................................................8 2.2.1 层次分析法 ......................................................................................................................8 2.2.2 模糊综合评价法 ..............................................................................................................9 2.2.3 专家评分法 ......................................................................................................................9 2.2.4 主成分分析法 ................................................................................................................10 2.2.5 其他方法 ........................................................................................................................10 3 创业投资风险评估模型及其指标体系的构建 .................................................................................12 3.1 基于主成分分析法的评估模型...............................................................................................12 3.1.1 主成分分析法的原理....................................................................................................12 3.1.2 主成分分析法评估模型................................................................................................12 3.2 创业投资风险评估指标体系的构建.......................................................................................13 3.2.1 现有创业投资风险评估体系的分析............................................................................13 3.2.2 风险评估指标体系的设计原则....................................................................................15 3.2.3 创业投资风险评估指标体系的构建............................................................................15 4 基于主成分分析法的创业投资风险评估应用研究 .........................................................................20 4.1 样本的选取和指标数据处理...................................................................................................20 4.1.1 样本的选取 ...................................................................................................................20 4.1.2 项目概况 .......................................................................................................................20 4.1.3 指标数据的收集和处理................................................................................................21 4.2 基于主成分分析法的创业投资风险评估应用研究...............................................................22 4.2.1 分析计算过程 ...............................................................................................................22 4.2.2 评估结果分析 ...............................................................................................................26 5 主要研究结论及对策建议 .................................................................................................................27 5.1 主要研究结论及对策建议.......................................................................................................27重庆理工大学硕士学位论文 IV 5.2 本文的不足与展望 ..................................................................................................................29 致谢.........................................................................................................................................................31